Tuesday, June 30
Monday, June 29
The eurocrisis countries are not OK. The nonperforming loans are encumbering their banks' balance sheets, and not enough has been done to change this. This keeps the crisis countries politically on a tight leash, as creditor countries' political and probably financial support is inevitable. This explains why politicians in Spain and Italy remain loyal toward the EU and why they act passive-aggressively toward Greece. But what happens later this year, when Portugal and Spain hold elections?
While there is cautious optimism about a deal being made to resolve the Greek debt crisis, make no mistake – there will be losses at some point. But a quick look of the worst possible outcome suggests that they might not be that bad. So did the stock market get scared into a big correction, just before it makes a big rally?
There will be no contagion from Greece. The euro area's leaders have blocked every channel that could cause harm. The only remaining contagion channel is themselves, as they will now be unable to complete the monetary union as a result of their actions over Greece.
In my third article on Greece, I outline what will be next on the agenda. Losses from Greece will have to be handled somehow, and the European Central Bank will do what is expected from it - but nothing more, and nothing less. The key will be how the European institutions handle the country-specific economic control - too much or too little, someone will become alienated.
Friday, June 26
Thursday, June 25
Wednesday, June 24
Monday, June 22
Sunday, June 21
Friday, June 19
Wednesday, June 17
Tuesday, June 16
Monday, June 15
Sunday, June 14
Friday, June 12
Previously on MoreLiver’s:
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Great Graphic: Euro Real Broad Effective Exchange Rate and Merkel – Marc Chandler
Merkel Defends ECB From German Criticism After Deflation Scare – BB
Euro zone formally discusses Greek default for first time – Reuters
How Europe Formally Discussing A Greek Default Shook Markets – ZH
Merkel urges Greece and creditors to keep pushing for deal – Reuters
Greece’s IMF Setback: Has Anything Really Changed? – WSJ
EU looks at Plan B for Greece – Politico
Greek Stocks, Bank Bonds Battered As Deal Hope Fades – ZH
Greece Refuses To Blink; EU Says Noncompliance "Not An Option" – ZH
Grexit Contagion - European Peripheral Bond Risk Is Soaring – ZH
Europe Gives Greece 24 Hours To Comply; Germany Draws Up Capital Control Plans – ZH
Athens defies creditors’ warning on aid – FT
Salvation to Catastrophe: What Might Happen to Greece – BB
EU Prepares for Worst as Greece Goes to Brink – BB
Keeping Greece in the Euro May Not Be About Euros – BB
Greece Counts Cost of One Man’s Gamble – BB
FOMC preview: Fed to signal rate hike later this year – Nordea
The Fed is unlikely to make any policy changes at next week’s FOMC meeting. However, we expect the central bank to affirm its signal that it will be appropriate to lift rates at some point this year. The main focus will be on the FOMC’s revised fed funds rate projections. We continue to expect lift-off in Fed rates at the 16-17 September FOMC meeting.
Producer Prices Jump MoM Most Since Sept 2012 Driven By Higher Energy Costs – ZH
U.S. producer prices post largest gain since 2012 – Reuters
US consumer confidence rebounds in June – TF
Preliminary June Consumer Sentiment increases to 94.6 – Bill McBride
U.S. consumer sentiment climbs in June – Reuters
Daily Central Banks – WSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Reassuring Consumer Data Keep Fed On Track for Rate Increases * WSJ Survey: Fed Won’t Raise Rates Before September * Fed Meetings May Be Live, But Here’s Why They’re Unlikely to Surprise * Draghi: ECB Didn’t Give Privileged Information to Fund Managers * BOE’s McCafferty Says Downside Risks to Inflation Diminishing
Daily Macro – WSJ
Greece once again takes the headlines amid reports that the International Monetary Fund has had enough of bailout talks that draw no closer to resolution. The Greek government still has a bit of time to strike some sort of bargain with its creditors and is likely to use all of it to squeeze out the best possible deal. So with its IMF payments not due until the end of the month, there’s every chance the current drama will see another twist or two over the coming week or so.
Morning MoneyBeat Asia – WSJ
U.S. Stocks Rise on Sales Improvement
Morning MoneyBeat Europe – WSJ
Stocks to Struggle as IMF Leaves the Building
Morning MoneyBeat US – WSJ
Lack of Optimism Suggests Stocks Could Rise
Danske Daily – Danske Bank
Euro rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
EUR/USD dips * Happy US consumers * Swedish rate cut off the table on strong inflation print
Morning Markets – TF
We've been here so many times, but are we really now approaching the endgame on Greece? Certainly, the niceties of the diplomatic circuit were conspicuous by their absence as the IMF left the negotiations and Greece got a stern dressing down.
Daily FX Comment – Marc Chandler
Dollar Remains Bid
Daily Shot – TF
The IMF has walked out of its negotiations with Greece, and many are saying the Eurogroup should do the same. The move saw German bund yields fell sharply as hope for a solution dims.
Daily Press Summary – Open Europe
IMF recalls officials as hope for deal with Greece fade * David Cameron continues EU reform talks ahead of June EU summit * ECB denies suggestions it failed to provide privileged information to entire market * La Stampa: European Commission considers dropping binding refugee quotas * Dijsselbloem likely to stay on as Eurogroup head * Podemos-backed candidate will become new Mayor of Madrid * EU launches antitrust probe against Amazon
Brussels Playbook – Politico
US Open – ZH
Markets Twist And Turn On Every Headline In The Endless Greek Tragedy
Frontrunning – ZH
FX Update – TF
FX traders are nervously eyeing what may prove a huge week for FX as we have three important central bank meetings (Fed, SNB and Norges Bank) as well as a potentially pivotal Eurogroup meeting for the “Greece issue” next Thursday.
From the Floor – TF
Bonds have rebounded after yesterday's dramatic withdrawal by the IMF from the Greek debt talks.
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Mahdollisimman moni suu makiaksi | Koroissa korjausliike alaspäin | USA:n vähittäismyyntiluvut vahvat
Tällaiset olisivat Kreikan euroeron vaikutukset – Verkkouutiset
Saksan ja Ranskan demarit haastavat SSS-hallituksen – Antti Ronkainen
Jari Korkki: Yhden Ässän kyselytunti – YLE