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Friday, December 30

30th Dec - End of Line


It is the last trading day of the year and no-one will miss the 2011. On the other hand, 2011 probably has been much kinder than 2012 - but how much of the coming real-world carnage has already been priced to EUR, European bonds and CDS-prices? My guess is 2012 will be very, very bad year for people in the real world and less so to people living ahead of the curve - i.e. the markets. I plan to post a special year in review (and preview) during the weekend. 

To the links:

Thursday, December 29

29th Dec - Weak Italian auction

News (Thu evening) – BTH
Recap (29-Dec) GMT
FX option vols – Saxo
Markets Live – alphaville / FT
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
Europe Crisis Tracker – WSJ

EURO CRISIS
Dithering at the Top Turned EU Crisis to Global ThreatWSJ
A look back to the year in the euro crisis. Very nice.

Two Models for EuropeHans-Werner Sinn / Project Syndicate
Either the American way (states can default) or the socialist way (risk of all public debt is socialized)

Yes, the Market is Getting What it Wants. The ECB is Easing.MarketBeat / WSJ
Of course, you can’t escape the cyclical nature of this solution. The ECB is propping up the banks, and the banks  are keeping the euro zone governments afloat by buying their debt. If it doesn’t sound sustainable. And it might not be. But it seems that the markets at least see a path for muddling forward in
Europe, which wasn’t clear just a few weeks ago.

European Fiscal ZombiesKrugman / NYT
What we have now is the result of the crisis, not of fiscal profligacy before the crisis.

ITALIAN AUCTION
Italy Sells Long-Dated Bonds To Weak Demand, 10 Year Prices Just Inside Of 7%, Bids To Cover MissZH

Wall Street Response To Italian AuctionZH

Gartman: Europe At Its Own ‘Lehman Moment’MarketBeat / WSJ

2011 & 2012
Goldman Says Good Riddance to 2011ZH
Adverse shocks weighed on global growth in 2011…A fragile global growth picture for 2012, still vulnerable to shocks

2011 in 11 chartsWonkblog / WP

What to expect in 2012 (and stress indicator charts)Saxo / The Trader
Risk of ECB QE, Greece falling apart, stronger USD, economy and companies slowing down.

My global macro take on 2012...Veksler’s Forex blog / Saxo

DIVERSION
In love as in equities, we are fooled by randomnessJohn Kay
I should have consulted the poet Wendy Cope, who wrote that: “Bloody men are like bloody buses – / You wait for about a year / And as soon as one approaches your stop / Two or three others appear”.

Kremlin’s Concessions Don’t Appease Russia’s OppositionJeffrey Tayler / BB View
The protest movement, born from outrage over apparently manipulated parliamentary elections earlier this month, has gained both momentum and magnitude across Russia. The ruling tandem is taking note and, without admitting it, making concessions.

29th Dec - Back to School


Just when I was writing this post the SSRN went down until Friday 12pm ET.

Do (Some) University Endowments Earn Alpha?SSRN

Adjustment patterns to commodity terms of trade shocks: the role of exchange rate and international reserves policiesNBER
 
Research review - Forecasting: What Have We Learned?The Capital Spectator
Predicting Recessions: A New Approach for Identifying Leading Indicators and Forecast Combinations · Predicting the Small Stock Premium Over Different Horizons: What Do We Learn About its Source? · Forecasting Bond Risk Premia Using Technical Indicators · Analysts’ Earnings Forecast, Recommendation and Target Price Revisions · Do Stock Prices Influence Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts? · How Does the FOMC Learn About Economic Revolutions? Evidence from the New Economy Era, 1994-2001 · The Wisdom of Competitive Crowds · Do Commodity Futures Help Forecast Spot Prices? · Forecasting the Price of Oil

29th Dec - Italian auction to end the year


Italian bond auction coming up - Bloomberg, Reuters.

News (Thu morning) – BTH
Morning Brief (29-Dec) – BNY Mellon
Preview (29-Dec) – Saxo
FX option vols – Saxo
Markets Live – alphaville / FT
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
Europe Crisis Tracker – WSJ

Wednesday, December 28

28th Dec - Darkness visible

Read the TF Market Advisors' second link. Something bad is about to happen. The LTRO fiasco is now plainly visible, with almost all the newly lent money parked right back to the ECB. Maybe, just maybe it is sitting there over the end of the year, but equally likely is that now the eurocrats and especially the ECB have lost the game. They have done everything short of full-blown backstop and still there is no appetite for bonds.
There is an Italian bond auction on Thursday. It will be very, very closely watched.

Quote of the day: When the water rises, so does the boat Hagakure