Facebook: rolling linkfest

Here is a collection of recent articles and blog posts on Facebook’s IPO. This post will be updated later and new additions will appear at the bottom of this post. Enjoy, have fun. If you feel this blog is high-quality work, spread the word. You can follow me on Twitter or Facebook and email me for suggestions and requests.

MoreLiver’s view: Company whose products everyone uses already - no user growth in future. Earnings 1bn, and 12% of that comes from Zynga games. Market cap of 100bn would give a P/E ratio of 100. The real question: is Facebook a growth company, or WAS it a growth company? The float is around 5bn, and there are a lot of potential sellers. What's the holdout lock-up period for old owners, 6 months? Of course, it is a buy – everyone will want theirs.

To the links:

2nd Feb - FB FB FB. DB says BoP crisis

Very bad morning for quality articles: Facebook probably stole the day for all the journalists and half the bloggers in the world. Nice piece from Deutsche Bank, though. At least they understand that the currency union was and is, well, a political idea that does is not working in reality.

I'm seriously thinking of writing a Facebook post, but try to fight the urge. Company whose products everyone uses already - no user growth in future. Earnings 1bn, and 12% of that comes from Zynga games. Market cap of 100bn would give a P/E ratio of 100. The real question: is Facebook a growth company, or WAS it a growth company? The float is around 5bn, and there are a lot of potential sellers. What's the holdout period for old owners, 6 months? Of course, it is a buy. Everyone will want theirs.

1st Feb - Facebook files

All Stratfor content is free for now. After they got cyberbombed, they are trying to build some trust. Show them some respect by reading their stuff for free. I originally thought I am not going to follow Facebook at all, but you know how it is with Facecrack – “one more refresh”. In normal links: something strange was going on with Italy - Morgan Stanley has figured a way to get sovereign state to actually pay up, apparently. As this is what everyone else wants, this could attract some attention and action. The rest is pretty standard stuff, though the breakup guide from alphaville was pretty cool.

To the links:

1st Feb - Why not to call default a default?

Why not to call default a default

Leaders are afraid of the voters, not the market 

Why are the eurocrats so scared of calling the Greek default a default? There are some economic reasons for that, but mostly it is political. An involuntary event would trigger CDS contracts and make it official that an Euro member has defaulted. Many current systems from Basel Accord to central bank collateral policies would look idiotic. 

ECB as a sovereign backstop (i.e. accepting basically any useless promissory notes as valid collateral) would become politically more difficult to maintain. Voters who do not understand any of this, but still calling all the shots, could turn against their leaders and vote for parties promising more jobs, regulation and bank taxes and less China, EU and credit default swaps.

Countries with an unsustainable debt situation, notably Portugal and Spain, could start thinking that if the Greeks are allowed to do it, why not us as well? The official EU line and thinking is that the calling the Greek default a default and not something else would make markets nervous and spread the disease. The markets are already nervous - the default would not change anything on that front. It is the sovereign governments and their voters that the eurocrats are afraid of.

1st Feb - Clueless in Brussels

My thoughts coming up in today's later post. Meanwhile, enjoy the following daily briefings and articles: