MoreLiver's Daily: October 2013

Some nasty articles on Europe today. Note that the Bundesbank is hawkish, but that is not news. Today's main event will be the delayed US September employment report.

The median analyst expectation is for payrolls to have risen by 180k after the 169k advance in August and 104k in July. The market reaction would likely be stronger to a downside surprise. – Nordea

Monday, October 21

21st Oct - The post-shutdown data calendar

21st Oct - A week to remember?

German political news, ECB, asset quality review, delayed US data, PMI, IFO, next negotiations in US...

Sunday, October 20

20th Oct - Credit Guest: The return of the Gibson paradox

Here is this week's I/O from Macronomics - your first line of defense against market ignorance.

Saturday, October 19

19th Oct - Weekender: Linkfest

Friday, October 18

18th Oct - Weekender: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

18th Oct - Weekender: Best of the Week

Best article links selected from the ending week’s posts. Last week’s edition here.

18th Oct - The missing data begins to come in

Thursday, October 17

17th Oct - Dollar offered as tapering is delayed

17th Oct - US Deal is a pause, not a solution

US: Debt deal done – or the need for one moved to February. Nice that the thing was solved for now, but not nice that the circus will be coming back to town so soon after the last show. Because it will be just the same in February. There are four Fed presidents speaking today, so the taper-guessing is back in vogue. January seen the earliest, but if the political mess continues and is not solved by that time, it might be that the Fed will simply decide to postpone the tapering again.

Dagong downgrades US from A to A-, says “A debt crisis evolves into a political crisis, which in turn exacerbates the debt crisis…Recurrence of the conflict over debt ceiling once again reveals the US superstructure’s incapacity to solve national debt crisis”

Bloomberg: The focus now shifts to a new series of deadlines -- the first for budget negotiations with a Dec. 13 target -- that set up more rounds of political combat over taxes and spending on programs including Social Security and Medicare. The deal funds the government at Republican-backed spending levels through Jan. 15, 2014, and suspends the debt limit through Feb. 7.

Europe: ECB’s meeting will discuss the asset quality review and the stress tests. We were promised a schedule and more information “in second half of October”, so perhaps we will hear something soon.

Wednesday, October 16

16th Oct - Deal in US?

16th Oct - Still no US-deal, Europe's non-banking union

There is much about the US fiscal melodrama that is a farce. Unlike other debt crisis, this one is totally self-inflicted. It is a crisis of choice not necessity. The misconstructions have been repeated so many times that they have taken on a life of their own. October 17 most certainly does not represent the deadline on a US default. – Marc to Market

Tuesday, October 15

15th Oct - Still no deal, Europe darkens

15th Oct - Almost a deal, almost the deadline

It now looks as if there will be a bi-partisan deal later today in the US Senate,

Monday, October 14

14th Oct - Another Shutdown Monday

Starting from today, I am posting only once per day. I will also skip the “regular” link section, but luckily you can access them from my Links-page.

I want to have more time to read what I link to – and write as well.

Sunday, October 13

13th Oct - Credit Guest: The Rebel Yell

This week's cross-post by Macronomics, enjoy.

13th Oct - Random Charts / Käppyrää

Some random charts for the Sunday - joitain käppyröitä iloksenne.

Saturday, October 12

12th Oct - Off-Topic & Finnish

12th Oct - Weekender: Economics & Markets

12th Oct - Weekender: Europe and US

12th Oct - Weekender: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

12th Oct - Best of the Week

Best article links selected from the ending week’s posts.

Friday, October 11

11th Oct - US Open

11th Oct - EU Open: Rally on possible truce

Thursday, October 10

10th Oct - US Close: A Shutdown-Pause?

10th Oct - US Open

10th Oct - EU Open

Wednesday, October 9

9th Oct - US Close: Still playing chicken

Fed minutes contained no surprises - except that the FOMC really, really wants to taper - but is too scared of the feedback. More on Yellen, and some good ones on Europe. Of course, the U.S. shutdown continues, but no proper news yet.

It only takes a minute, girl!