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Tuesday, August 16

16th Aug - USD weakness






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EUROPE 
Bundesbank Floats Higher Retirement Age in German Pension Debate – BB
Central bank discusses raising retirement age to 69 by 2060 * Alternative would be higher contributions as population ages

German govt: Turkey supports terror groups in Middle East – Politico

Scenarios for Italian banks’ bad loans – Pictet

U.K. Inflation Accelerates as Pound Drop Boosts Import Costs – BB


UNITED STATES
Dudley Says September Hike Possible, Markets Too Complacent – BB
US Dollar Jumps As Dudley Says “Sep Possible..Market Underpricing Hikes” – ZH
U.S. Stocks Decline With Treasuries After Dudley’s Rate Comments – BB
  
Fed: Industrial Production increased 0.7% in July – Bill McBride
Factory Production in U.S. Increases More Than Forecast – BB
U.S. industrial output rises 0.7 percent in July – Reuters

U.S. Consumer Prices Unchanged in July as Fuel Costs Ease – BB
Core CPI Remains Above Fed Mandated 2% For 9th Straight Month – ZH
U.S. consumer prices unchanged; underlying inflation slowing – Reuters


Housing Starts Jump On Spike In Rental Units As Permits Decline – ZH
Housing Starts in U.S. Climbed to a Five-Month High in July – BB
U.S. housing starts rise to five-month high in July – Reuters


OTHER
Martin Enlund: USD: Donald Won’t Dent The Dollar – Nordea
The Fed has had to reconsider a lot of things over the past two years. Having come a far way, the need for further “great reassessments” should be limited. Abating risks for the central bank should instead pave the way for some mildly USD-supportive repricing of the Fed, but watch out for an October surprise…

US Dollar Dives To 3-Month Lows As Rate-Hike Odds Slide – ZH

 
REGULARS
Danske Daily – Danske Bank

Eye-Opener – Nordea
S&P500 at new high, JPY jump dents sentiment, Williams calls for rethink * Today’s calendar: US and UK July CPI prints; German ZEW * JPY jumped to a one-month high during Tokyo lunchtime * London banks won’t ”wait around”

Morning Markets – TF
Today's Asian session showed both equities and the safe-haven Japanese yen moving upwards with the action in USDJPY putting the 100.00 handle in sight.

Euro wrap-up – Daiwa

Daily Market Comment – Marc Chandler
Dollar Slumps, but Driver may Not be so Obvious

Daily Market Comment – Macro Man
Pump up the volume?

Daily Shot – TF
The recent spike in emerging market assets has driven equities and currencies higher largely on fund inflows.

Daily Press Summary – Open Europe
No 10 says “full weight of the machinery of government” has been put behind Brexit * UK consumer prices tick up slightly but producer prices show bigger jump post Brexit * Bloomberg: Investment banks will not wait for Brexit deal * Inquiry launched into how best to protect rights of EU citizens in UK following vote to leave EU * Resolution Foundation: Any wage increase due to reduced migration outweighed by reduction in real incomes from Brexit * Bundesbank expects Brexit vote to have only “limited” impact on German economy

Brussels Playbook – Politico
French cabinet’s battle Royal — Ukraine simmers — Germany’s black-green coalition

US Open – ZH
Tumbling Dollar Sends USDJPY Under 100, Oil Over $46 As Gold Spikes; Futures Flat

Frontrunning – ZH

FX Update – TF
The San Francisco Fed’s Williams published a piece yesterday arguing in favour of a rethink of Fed policy with a possible fiscal or nominal GDP targeting approach. The USD is weaker with USDJPY pushing down toward the key 100.00 level and EURUSD at post-Brexit vote highs.

From the Floor – TF
Dollar weakness has USDJPY poised over 100.0 and gold edging higher.


FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Uusi jääkausi uhkaa euroaluetta * New Yorkin teollisuuden luottamus laski vastoin odotuksia * Saksan rahoitusmarkkinoiden luottamus (ZEW) palautuu Brexit-äänestyksen jäljiltä * Korkomarkkinoilla seurataan Fedin Lockhartin puhetta

Virallista mollia – Sakari Heikkinen