12th Dec - Still quiet

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter

EUROPE

Merkel Gives Strongest Support Yet for Macron’s EU Overhaul Drive – BB

Chancellor hails ‘historic necessity’ to reinvigorate Europe * Merkel wants quick conclusion to coalition talks with SPD

Sweden: More Signs The World's Biggest Housing Bubble Is Cracking – ZH

The European trust crisis and the rise of populism – voxeu

A wave of populism has been gaining ground in the West since 2012. This column uses regional data for 26 European countries to explore how the impact of the Great Recession on labour markets has affected populist voting, political attitudes, and trust. The results indicate a strong link between unemployment and voting for non-mainstream (especially populist) parties. Unemployment is also correlated with increasing distrust of national and European parliaments.

Austerity and the rise of the Nazi party – NBER

Depending on how we measure austerity and the elections we consider, each 1 standard deviation increase in austerity is associated with a 2 to 5 percentage point increase in vote share for the Nazis. Consistent with existing evidence, we find that unemployment rates were linked with greater votes for the Communist party.

  EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK

ECB preview: close to target…by 2020 – Pictet

The main talking points ahead of the ECB’s last policy meeting this year on 14 December are the new staff projections for growth and inflation as well as forward guidance on asset purchases. We expect higher oil prices to push ECB staff forecasts for inflation higher, to 1.4% in 2018 and 1.6% in 2019.

ECB to raise forecasts but manage expectations – ABN AMRO

Upgrading forecasts and signalling prolonged stimulus

UNITED STATES

A crucial step towards US tax cuts – Pictet

With the approval of the Senate tax bill in the early hours of Saturday 2 December, a key step has been taken toward tax cuts.

Goldman expects "Tax Reform" to be Enacted in the "Next Two Weeks" – ZH

  FEDERAL RESERVE

Fed preview: three or four hikes in 2018 – Nordea

A 25bp rate hike seems like a done deal on Wednesday and hence focus will turn to the Fed’s forward guidance, in particular if the dot plot will show 3 or 4 rate hikes in 2018. We expect a muted reaction in EUR/USD but see the pair lower in December.

Fed 2018 outlook – Pictet

Fed rate unlikely to move much above 2% next year. After the quarter-point rate rise expected on 13 December, the Federal Reserve will have pushed through the three rate hikes it signalled earlier in the year.

Fed Meetings Could Get Exciting Again in 2018 – WSJ

HSBC analysts said that future rate decisions may be more controversial and dependent on the strength of economic data. This is partly because rates are moving closer to where Fed officials think they should be over the long run.

  MARKETS / OTHER

SocGen Thinks Emerging Markets Are Breaking Down: Here's Why – ZH

Here It Is...Team Macro Man's 2018 Top Trades – Macro Man

How China's Debt Curbs Could Start Weighing on the Economy – BB

Investment in infrastructure and property is seen decelerating * Companies face higher financing costs as bond yields increase

Mean-reversion on equity index level – Factor Research

Buy the Dip? Not before the 1970s.

BofA's "The Top 17 Themes To Remember From 2017" – ZH

Must-Reads of 2017: How Finance Ate Everything – BB

Three books chronicle the financial revolution that's transforming our world.

People invest in stock scams even when they know they are scams – Quartz

REGULARS

FirstFT Daily Briefing – FT

EU ministers warn Trump, FT Person of the Year, bitcoin whales

WSJ City – WSJ

Top US Regulator Warns on Bitcoin, Retail Giant Westfield Agrees to Takeover

“Best of the web” daily charts – Lukas Daalder

Danske Daily – Danske Bank

Eye-Opener – Nordea

Norwegian inflation below expectations, Swedish and UK inflation today, higher oil price * EUR/SEK has parked above 10 * Swedish and UK inflation today * Higher oil price

Daily Market Comment – Marc Chandler

UK Front and Center, but Sterling is Laggard in Today's Move Against the Dollar

Brussels Playbook – Politico

Macron’s One Planet — Frozen vertical meat spits — Brexit and diversity

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day – BB

https://www.bloomberg.com/authors/ARIYqLnEHrg/lorcan-roche-kelly

US Open – ZH

Futures Flat As FOMC Meeting Begins; Brent Jumps Over $65 For First Time Since 2015

Frontrunning – ZH

FINNISH

Aamukatsaus – Nordea

Norjan pohjainflaatio oli odotuksia heikompi | Tänään saadaan Ruotsin ja Ison-Britannian inflaatioluvut | Kruunut heikentyivät euroa vastaan