Here
are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the
beginning week.
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LAST WEEK
Earnings Insight |
Mar 2
– Factset
US Weekly FundFlows | Mar 1 – Lipper Alpha
NEXT WEEK
Will the ECB change its communication and
forward guidance to comfort the hawks? * Is the UK making progress on a
post-Brexit transition period? * US: why are we forecasting four Fed interest
rate hikes?
EcoWeek – BNP PARIBAS
A strong euro: inflation impact matters
more than growth
No-put
Powell and protectionist policies * Uptrend in US yields intact despite
headwinds * A big week with ECB’s Draghi and US average hourly earnings
EZ:
Super-Sunday as Germany’s SPD and Italy vote, ECB meeting on Thursday US:
Friday jobs report * Japan: Friday BoJ meeting
Inflation has been a key market driver
this year * The balance of risks to our inflation forecasts is on the upside
given the US fiscal stimulus and closing global output gaps * Jerome Powell
said the outlook for the US economy has strengthened - we still expect three
Fed hikes this year but see the possibility of the Fed raising its 'dots' to
three hikes for 2019 at its next meeting * The ECB is set to remove some of its
QE bias next week * We remain positive on equities * US inflation
outperformance will be negative for the USD.
Evaluating
possible reactions to US tariffs * Europe: ECB meeting and politics *
Tariffs Warn of Even Faster Price
Inflation and Slower Growth
President
Trump announces tariffs on US steel and aluminium imports * Equities did not
like Powell’s testimony to Congress but bonds were OK * Global growth momentum
appears to be softening but various distortions in the US and Asia make it hard
to read the indicators
Dollar's
Technical Outlook Turns Decisively Mixed
Ahead
of weekend political event risks in Europe, we provide our best guess on how
the various scenarios will play out and also how the key events of (1) Trump
protectionism, (2) the ECB meeting and (3) US February jobs data will impact
G10 FX markets over the next week.
Weekly Market
Summary
– The
Fat Pitch
The long term trend in US equities remains
firmly higher. Expectations should be for equities to rise in the months ahead.
The near term directional edge is more muted. Worldwide, equities are in the
process of retesting their February lows. The US is being held up mostly by
technology and financial stocks. Whether the US follows the rest of the world
lower is largely dependent on politics: specifically, whether trade war
rhetoric evolves from saber rattling to reality. March and the upcoming OpX
week are a strong seasonal tailwind.