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Friday, May 4

4th May - Weaker Europe, ok US jobs, US-Sino trade wars


 
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EUROPE
Euro-Area Economy In for More Weakness After April Slowdown BB
Composite PMI falls to lowest level since January 2017 * ECB’s Constancio says region’s economy remains ‘robust’

Corporate Sector Soft PatchPictet
The ECB is adjusting its corporate bond purchases to take account of market conditions, including the recent fall in issuance.

Retail sales point to weaker consumption growth, PMIs stabilized in AprilDaiwa


UNITED STATES
May Macro Update: A Recession in 2018 Looks Increasingly UnlikelyThe Fat Pitch
The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely.

  APRIL JOBS
Payrolls Rise 164,000 While Jobless Rate Falls to 3.9% - BB
Tepid Wages, Participation Mute Celebration on U.S. Jobless Rate – BB
US employment keeps climbing, but wage growth disappoints – Pictet
Look Past Disappointing Jobs Data, Luke – Marc Chandler
Below-average jobs report, but not deeply disappointing – Daiwa

The April Jobs Report in 12 Charts – WSJ
April Jobs Report: 164K New Jobs, Disappoints Forecast – dshort
+164K Jobs: Payrolls, Hourly Earnings Miss, U-Rate Hits 18 Year Low 3.9% - ZH
No Wage Inflation? Not So Fast: Overtime Hours Soar – ZH
164,000 Jobs Added, 3.9% Unemployment Rate – Bill McBride
Comments on April Employment Report – Bill McBride

  
MARKETS / OTHER
Economic Surveys Are a Danger to Markets BB
So-called soft data suffer from a circular reference due to groupthink, herd mentality and political preferences.

The Gambler Who Cracked the Horse-Racing CodeBB
Bill Benter did the impossible: He wrote an algorithm that couldn’t lose at the track. Close to a billion dollars later, he tells his story for the first time.

  TRADE WARS
Trump team demands China slash U.S. trade surplus by $200 billion, cut tariffsReuters
US has demanded that China cut its U.S. trade surplus by $200 billion, end subsidies for advanced technology industries and sharply cut import tariffs to U.S. levels,

US-China trade talks set to continue for some timeDanske Bank
Two days of US-China trade talks are over. There was no big trade deal but an agreement to keep on talking instead.

China-US trade talks: A likely stalemateING
We expect no material change in the current deadlock between China and the US over trade

Germany desperate to avoid trade war Reuters
As Europe’s biggest exporter to the US and with more than 1 million German jobs at stake, Germany is desperate to avoid a EU trade war with the US.


REGULARS
EU Open RundownRANsquawk

FirstFT Daily BriefingFT
Emerging markets stumble, UK local elections, atonement machines

WSJ CityWSJ
HSBC Sees Profit Fall and Launches $2 Billion Buyback, The New Route to Success for US Firms

WSJ EconomicsWSJ
U.S.’ China Trade Demands | Europe’s Trump Problem | Jobs Day

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Daily Market CommentMarc Chandler
US jobs not the driver it once was

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Happy as poodles — EU battles, past and future — Postcard from Sydney

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your DayBB

US OpenZH
All Eyes On Payrolls, But The Real Story Is The Ongoing EM Rout

FrontrunningZH


FINNISH
Aamukatsaus Nordea