EUROPE
Eurozone: That
late summer feeling
– ING
The
Eurozone economy is still showing decent growth, but the pace of growth is
likely to level off over the next two years, as the international environment
has become less positive. At the same time a number of political hurdles can
inject some uncertainty into the growth outlook but still we expect 2.0% GDP
growth this year
Italy: Budget test
for the 5SM/League government – ING
The
inconsistencies between a challenging 5SM/League attitude on budgetary issues
and finance minister Tria’s reassuring statements finally seem close to a
solution. The compromise will unlikely be able to shift a gear in the current
modest recovery, but we still expect the Italian economy to expand by 1.1% in
2018 and by 1% in 2019
France: Emmanuel
Macron 2.0
– ING
After
a difficult summer which saw his approval ratings plummet, President Macron is
starting his second year in a weaker position. If the number of ambitious
reforms on the agenda are as high as the last, the French economy will be less
supportive. We forecast GDP growth of 1.8% this year, a notch below 2017’s 2.0%
Spain: Political
challenges ahead as the economy slows down – ING
The
next couple of weeks are likely to be stressful for the Spanish prime minister
as he confronts a number of thorny issues. Meanwhile, evidence of a slowing
economy is mounting. For 2018 as a whole, we forecast a growth rate of 2.6% and
2.0% for 2019
Drop in German
orders sign of slower global fixed investment growth – ABN
AMRO
Foreign
orders for German capital goods have plummeted since the start of the year, signaling
slower global growth in investment in machinery and equipment * We think that
investment growth in the main countries and regions on aggregate is close to
its peak levels currently, and that it will slow down moving into 2019
Germany: Late is
not too late
– ING
Between
the late-cycle and the golden decade, the German economy is experiencing an
unusual fluctuation in high-frequency data but the underlying trend remains
robust. Could feel a bit like an Indian summer of sorts for a while
OTHER
Why One Bank Sees
A Global "Minsky Moment On The Horizon" – ZH
China to Cancel Talks If Trump Moves Ahead With Tariffs, Sources Say – BB
U.S.
plans 10% duty on as much as $200 billion in China goods * White House
announcement could come as soon as Monday
China paper warns
it won't play defense on trade as Trump lauds tariffs – Reuters
REGULARS
EU Open Rundown – RANsquawk
Brussels Edition
Daily
– BB
FirstFT Daily
Briefing
– FT
WSJ Daily
Economics
– WSJ
U.S.
Threatens China With $200B More In Tariffs, China Promises Retaliation
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank
Trade
war concerns set to accelerate this week
Daily Market
Comment
– Marc
Chandler
Dollar
Slips, though Emerging Markets Trade Heavily
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Šefčovič
puts his hand up — Varoufakis for president? — Theresa May or nothing
Five Things You
Need to Know to Start Your Day – BB
US Open – ZH
Stocks
Slide Ahead Of Trump Tariff Announcement, China Tumbles To 2014 Low
US Open Rundown – RANsquawk
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Asettaako Trump jälleen uusia tuontitulleja Kiinalle? |
Venäjän keskuspankki nosti ohjauskorkoaan perjantaina | Tällä viikolla tulossa
Norjan keskuspankin kokous torstaina, ostopäällikköindeksejä euroalueelta
perjantaina
Puuttuvan talouskurittajan vaihtoehdoista – Peter
Nyberg