I'm on Twitter.
Charting the Global Economy: The Week in
Review
– BB
Take Five: World markets themes for the
week ahead
– Reuters
Trump and Brexit haze * 2019 final quarter
begins with Draghi leaving * Signs of
weaking US economy * China’s birthday * Trade wars
Key events in developed markets next week – ING
UK: Expect PMIs to follow the global
downtrend in the coming week while investors will be eyeing eurozone data to
assess strength in the service sector * US: September employment report - economy
experiencing some bumps - but not dropping off a cliff * Eurozone: All eyes on
service sector strength
EcoWeek – BNP
PARIBAS
Germany is probably in a technical
recession and recent data do not point to any improvement in the near term,
quite to the contrary. Given the country’s considerable budget surplus, German
business leaders are calling for fiscal stimulus. This echoes Mario Draghi’s
plea in favour of budgetary expansion in countries with fiscal space.
Simulations show that spillover effects to other eurozone countries would be
small. Moreover, the implementation of a fiscal package requires long
preparation and may be hampered by labour shortages.
Global Week Ahead – Scotiabank
US: Support for impeachment passed the
minimum threshold of a simple majority. A key risk will require monitoring for
any possible cracks in the Republicans’ support for Trump given the requirement
of a two-thirds super-majority to convict. Trade policy risks may incrementally
shift toward US-European relations. The Fed’s efforts to tamp down funding
market pressures will continue. Also, September payrolls and ISM manufacturing *
Euro area: flash inflation
Week Ahead – Nordea
Trump may be impeached, but he is here to
stay * Bet on Schwung and be wrong *ECB: Buy, buy, buy. People: Save, save,
save.
Weekly Focus – Danske
Bank
US: a small rebound in ISM manufacturing
and a further moderation in employment growth to around 100,000. Attention will
also remain on the prospect of possible impeachment of US President Donald
Trump. * China: PMI data for September to give more insight into the extent of the
economy's weakness. We expect the numbers to still show weakness but not point
to a hard landing. * Euro area: flash euro area inflation to fall to 0.9% in
September from 1.0% in August.
Macro Weekly – ABN
AMRO
Democrats start impeachment against Trump
* Suspension of UK parliament deemed unlawful * US economy OK, rest of the
world struggling
China Weekly – Danske
Bank
High-level trade talks on track for week
starting 7 October * Elevated US-China tensions create difficult conditions to
reach a real deal * Chinese stocks and the CNY gave back gains in sign of
caution ahead of the talks * PRC's 70-year anniversary is celebrated on 1
October. It will be a demonstration of economic achievements as well as military
capabilities.
Weekly Market Comment – Marc
Chandler
Forces of Movement at the Start of Q4 19