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Saturday, December 14

14th Dec - Links #4179



Is Germany blocking nuclear because of gas?FT
Germany’s interests in natural gas are jeopardising the European Taxonomy for sustainable investments by scapegoating nuclear.

Fiscal policy cannot save the ECBvoxeu
Daniel Gros, Angela Capolongo: The ECB is running out of options for addressing its twin problems of low inflation and negative interest rates, leading some, including outgoing President, Mario Draghi, to call on fiscal policy measures to be used. This column argues that a fiscal expansion would be ineffective in raising interest rates or inflation for any length of time. Not only would the effect be temporary, but the scale of expansion needed to effect any substantial change would be unfeasible.

The geography of EU discontentvoxeu
Support for Eurosceptic parties and the rise of populism threaten not only European integration, but peace and prosperity on the continent more broadly. Rather than attributing their rise to the individual characteristics of voters – such as age or income – this column takes a different approach. Using results from recent legislative elections to map the geography of EU discontent, it finds that purely geographical factors – chiefly, long-term economic and industrial decline – are the fundamental drivers of anti-European voting.

BIS Quarterly Review BIS

Public support for the euro and trust in the ECB: The first two decades voxeu
On the 20th anniversary of the euro, this column traces public support for the single currency and public trust in the ECB. The crisis years slightly dented support for the euro while trust in the ECB fell sharply. The recovery increased support for the euro, but while trust in the ECB has also risen, it remains below its pre-crisis levels. Unemployment is the key factor driving public support for the euro as well as trust in the ECB.

The Policy Debate Europe NeedsProject Syndicate
Barry Eichengreen: How can the eurozone get the fiscal stimulus it needs, and which European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is urging, in the face of the refusal by some countries, starting with Germany, to run budget deficits? There is a good answer, but it doesn't involve attempting to cicumvent the intent of the ECB's statute.

What a European ‘carbon border tax’ might look likeProject Syndicate
The new European Commission is considering the introduction of a ‘carbon border tax’. This column argues that the current EU legal framework and earlier policy proposals for border carbon adjustments offer a good indication of what such a measure might look like. If certain substantive and procedural guidelines are observed, a ‘carbon border tax’ along these lines can work and pass legal muster, but some important questions remain. Without a concrete mandate in the EU emissions trading system allowance directive to elaborate a border carbon adjustment, new legislation or an amendment will be necessary.

Fiscal stabilisation in monetary unions voxeu
If properly designed, even a small fiscal capacity can maximise its stabilisation effect. The column studies the macroeconomic stabilisation provided by the federal budget in the US as an example for monetary unions. Corporate income tax, on the revenue side, and social security, on the spending side, are the two most effective items. The key is to collect revenues based on the income of the most mobile factor, and to provide support to the income of the least mobile factor. 

Europe’s Social Democrats Could Suffer Mass ExtinctionBB
Born out of the second industrial revolution, the movement is stumped by the fourth.

Is the EU’s green policy protecting the planet or industry?FT
Critics argue that co-opting environmental measures into trade policy has more to do with protectionism

The EU’s Green Deal is full of ambition but needs more detailThe Economist
Ursula von der Leyen’s “man-on-the-Moon moment”

Wait Until Donald Trump Hears About the Carbon Border TaxBB
The climate crisis and trade conflicts are two of the world’s biggest challenges and they might be about to collide in the EU’s green deal.

The ECB Makes Its Move Against Negative RatesBB
Mario Draghi's parting gift on tiering was really a tacit admission that sub-zero rates aren’t working properly.

A European Army? It’ll Never Happen. BB
The dream of an EU alternative to U.S. protection is just that. NATO remains as essential as ever.

Will the New EU Commission Be French or German?BB
Incoming president Ursula von der Leyen is caught between Macron’s impatience and Merkel’s caution.

I Just Translated ‘1984’ Into Russian. I’m Gasping for Air. BB