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Thursday, November 17

17th Nov - Stuck in a VERY local optimum

Something must be happening behind the scenes, but clearly more pain is required before the political leaders will commit to a real solution (ECB printing, Eurobonds, Germany leaving or PIIGS leaving). Markets are slowly but surely adding pressure through bond yields and a negative feedback of margin calls, liquidation, bank balance sheet reduction and market’s lack of faith in increasingly meaningless statements is going on.

With some luck, they can muddle through the holiday period, perhaps by canceling bond auctions or using ECB support to give the illusion that the situation is not hopeless. I just do not understand what the hell they expect to change in the coming months. Is the idea that banks can offload their positions in the European sovereign junk bonds to the ECB, and then a real solution is made? Or am I too optimistic in my assessment of the euro leaders’ capabilities, and they are in fact just stunned? This is what I mean with today's headline: for policymakers, the VERY local optimum is not doing anything for now, and that is very, very far away from the global optimum of doing something.

Wednesday, November 16

17th Nov - Belgium and Finland getting contagion


Source: NYT
Now even Belgium has trouble selling treasury bills. The deeds of the elderly have followed us into the sanctity of our homes. It is already all over unless the ECB starts printing.

Quote of the day: I think we have maybe a few months — it could be weeks, it could be days — before there is a material risk of a fundamentally unnecessary default by a country like Spain or Italy which would be a financial catastrophe dragging the European banking system and North America with it. So they have to act now. – Willem Buiter, Economist at Citigroup

16th Nov - Who blinks first dies

Just posted a credit overview guest post by Macronomics, and for my European readers please note last night's linkfest Rain in Spain. Here are today’s links.

News (Wed morning) – BTH
Recap Nov-15 – Global Macro Trading

Danske Daily Nov-16 – Danske Bank (pdf)
FX option vols – Saxo
Markets Live – alphaville FT
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
EZ crisis Live blog – The World / FT

EURO CRISIS
Presenting Deutsche Bank's Pitchbook To The ECB To Go "All In" – ZH
With full slides on DB’s report “The Tipping Point – Time to Call the ECB”. This week's must-read - and it's only Wednesday!


Presenting Europe's Remaining 2011 Bond And Bill Auctions... All 104 Of Them – ZH
This is a good one from Barclays - has details too!

Guest Post: Credit - Mind the Gap...

Guest post by Martin from Macronomics.

Markets update - Credit - Mind the Gap...

"There is a time to take counsel of your fears, and there is a time to never listen to any fear."
George S. Patton

Tuesday, November 15

15th Nov - Rain in Spain


Italian spread to Germany - easy to see ECB's SMP-actions
Just after I said it that Spain is the new Italy…Terrible t-bill auction. France and Belgium are now part of the fun. It is easier to name the countries that are NOT in the circle of contagion: Germany, Netherlands and Finland.

News (Tue evening) – BTH
FX option vols – Saxo
Markets Live – alphaville FT
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
EZ crisis Live blog – The World / FT

Then the French spread to Germany
EURO CRISIS
Europe Gets It – Peter Tchir / ZH
What has
Europe done, hasn't done (that they were supposed to), hasn't done (that wasn't in the plans)

French and German bond yields diverging
It’s a capital ratio of two halves – alphaville / FT
Markets are not currently playing nice about handing capital to the banks, making new funding rather expensive. Given this, banks are taking aim at the denominator of the capital ratio by deleveraging their balance sheets. Some are even getting all fancy about it by re-jigging their models to have lower risk weights than previously… It’s like a veritable garage sale out there… and it’s going on all in the same street.
Wonder what that will do for prices.