Here
are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the
beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here. This post will be updated as new
material is published.
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LAST WEEK
Chinado
Sparks Bullion's Best Week In 3 Months; US Stocks, Bonds Shrug
NEXT WEEK
US Schedule for
Week
– Calculated
Risk
Economic
Calendar – Berenberg
Wall St Week Ahead – Reuters
Investors
to look at Fed, earnings with China filter
Next
week’s most important data points from the US are Wednesday’s July CPI report
and the minutes from the latest Fed meeting in August. In the Euro area, our
primary focus will be on Greece as PM Tsipras is likely to face a confidence
vote. UK CPI figures will be out on Tuesday. GDP figures will be coming from
Norway and Japan, while Sweden will release unemployment figures on Thursday.
It
will be interesting to follow the actions and words of the People’s Bank of
China in coming days as there are still many unanswered questions on the new
CNY policy * Is the US set to hike interest rates in September? We expect
inflation figures to point in that direction. Further clues may be found in the
minutes of the Fed’s latest rate meeting and the first indicators for August * An
upside surprise in UK inflation could point to a November interest rate hike * Japanese
GDP probably fell in Q2 but this should be viewed as a pause in the ongoing
recovery following a very strong Q1.
We
draw five conclusions from this week’s big macro events. First, China will do
what it takes to support the economy, with the yuan devaluation the latest in a
line of measures to support growth. Second, the eurozone economy lost some of
its upward momentum in Q2, but there are plenty of positives signalling better
growth going forward. Meanwhile, the Dutch and Spanish economies are back in
the top league in terms of eurozone economic performance. Fourth, the US
economy is back on track helped by consumers. Finally, Greece is set for an ESM
programme, but likely also new elections.
EURCHF
upside trend may continue as long as EU peripheral spreads don't widen * Further
uncertainty/risk averse markets could see EURUSD continuing higher * Interest
rate spreads, weaker USD and weak New Zealand data are good for AUD * CNY
devaluation and weak risk appetite could continue to see GBP falling further
Observations about
the Dollar and the Week Ahead – Marc
Chandler
Is the Dollar
Going on Summer Vacation? – Marc
Chandler
Weekly Market
Summary
– The
Fat Pitch
Price
action in US equities is weak. Two potential opportunities to kick off a rally
failed this week. Despite this, short term sentiment and seasonality support a
move to the upper end of the range. Ultimately, lower lows are still ahead over
the coming weeks.