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EUROPE
Here's What
Economists Think About Europe and the ECB Right Now – BB
The
economic outlook isn't great, even though economists think the ECB will come
through on its QE pledges
Aggregate
demand and oil prices played key roles in the drop, which has consistently
‘surprised’ market-based expectations. Towards the end of 2014 the risk of the
ECB de-anchoring inflation expectations from the definition of price stability
became material.
Euro area: GDP
expanded modestly in the second quarter – Pictet
Yanis Varoufakis: A
New Approach to Eurozone Sovereign Debt – Project
Syndicate
The
problem with debt restructuring in the eurozone is that it is essential and, at
the same time, inconsistent with the implicit constitution underpinning the
monetary union. When economics clashes with an institution's rules,
policymakers must either find creative ways to amend the rules or watch their
creation collapse.
Lower euro area
inflation, but the ECB should not change its view – Danske
Bank
UNITED STATES
State of the U.S.
Economy
– Floating
Path
By
@NickatFP
OTHER
Collateral damage:
Dollar strength and emerging markets’ growth – Vox
The
strength of the US dollar can impact the economic activity in emerging
economies in various ways. This column argues that appreciation of the dollar
mitigates the impact of real GDP growth in emerging markets. The main
transmission channel is through an income effect. As the dollar appreciates,
commodity prices fall, depressing domestic demand via lower real income, and as
a result real GDP in emerging markets decelerates. Emerging markets’ growth is
expected to remain subdued, reflecting the expected persistence of the strong
dollar.
Why High Yield And
Equity Markets Have Diverged – The Fat Pitch
The
apparent divergence between credit-risk, as seen in rising high-yield bond
spreads, and equities is due primarily to the 60% drop in oil prices over the
past year. There's been no remarkable rise in spreads outside of energy; these
are back to being in-line with the long term mean after falling to a 7-year low
in 2014. If commodity prices continue to fall, this will be a meaningful metric
to watch for equity risk.
FX Forecast
Update: The end of CNY appreciation – Danske Bank
REGULARS
Morning MoneyBeat Asia – WSJ
U.S. Stocks End
Turbulent Week in the Green
Morning MoneyBeat Europe – WSJ
Markets Calm Amid Yuan
Stability, Greek Progress
Morning MoneyBeat US – WSJ
What This Week’s Data
Could Say About Liftoff
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank
Euro rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Unconvincing growth in
Europe * Japanese GDP down 1.6% (ann.) in Q2: Abenomics under test again * This
week FOMC minutes * Greek 10-year yield falls below 10% * EUR/SEK falling for
the second day in a row
Morning Markets – TF
Japan's economy
contracted at an annualised pace of 1.6% in the second quarter as exports
slowed and consumers cut back spending. Though anaylsts had expected a steeper
decline of 1.9%, the news is a blow to prime minister Shinzo Abe's "three
arrow" policy of defeating deflation with a blend of fiscal stimulus,
monetary easing and structural reforms.
Daily FX Comment – Marc
Chandler
China Stabilizes, Stocks and Bonds
Sigh in Relief
Daily Shot – TF
US leveraged finance
markets are taking a beating on the steep fall in mining and metals prices and
meanwhile, the US oil rig count is rising despite a market close to saturation.
Elsewhere, even though the market consensus favours a US rate hike in
September, muted inflation expectations make the opposing argument.
Daily Press Summary – Open
Europe
Eurozone considers
extending Greek loans to 60 years to get IMF on board with bailout *
Merkel: Asylum policy is
the next great European project * EU does not publish details of £85m credit
card bill for officials * Former UK minister says EU referendum likely in
September 2016 following ‘choreographed’ row with France * New EU derivatives rules
could lead to less fixed-rate mortgages * Billionaire calls on Swiss government
to take tough line in free movement talks with EU * ECB extends time to review
banks’ risk models
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Merkel's Brazilian fling
— Sticky situation — Cameron chillaxes
US Open – ZH
Futures Flat As Oil
Drops To Fresh 6 Year Low; EM Currencies Crumble Under Continuing FX War
Frontrunning – ZH
FX Update – TF
Even with the tremendous
implications of China’s recent devaluation, many of the major pairs remain
locked in tight trading ranges, wondering what to do next. It’s not readily
apparent that we’ll find out this week.
From the Floor – TF
We thought it was off but that's not the view of an overwhelming
majority of economists who expect the Fed to raise interest rates in September.
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Euroalueen
toisen neljänneksen BKT-kasvu tuotti pettymyksen | Japanin talous supistui
toisella neljänneksellä | Tänään saadaan euroalueen kauppatase
Paavo
Väyrynen: Tarvitaan sekä rinnakkaisvaluutta että yhteiskuntasopimus –
US
Timo
Haapala: Tällä viikolla mitataan pääministeri J. Sipilän kantti –
MTV
Tämä on viikko, jolloin tehdään suomalaista
työmarkkinahistoriaa - tai sitten ei tehdä. Yhteiskuntasopimuksen takaraja on
ensi perjantai. Juuri nyt ei hyvältä näytä, vaan sopimuksen kaatuminen on hyvin
lähellä.
Jan
Hurri: Kolme syytä, miksi Kreikka-kriisi jatkuu –
TalSa
Lisää velkaa, lisää vyönkiristystä ja
rakenneuudistuksia. Siinä Kreikan kolmannenkin "pelastuspaketin"
eväät – ja siinä kolme syytä, miksi kriisi jatkuu ja lasku kasvaa. Toimiviakin
pelastuskeinoja olisi, mutta ne ovat poliittisesti vaikeampia kuin kriisin
pitkittäminen troikan tapaan.
Politiikkaradio:
Työajan pidentämisen järki tai järjettömyys –
YLE
Roger Wessman ja Mika Maliranta - Työajan
pidentäminen on molempien mukaan Suomen nykytilanteessa välttämätöntä. Muita
keinoja ei poliitikoilla Suomen kilpailukyvyn parantamiseksi juurikaan ole.
Ensi vuoden valtion budjettiyllätys eli työtulovähennyksen aikaistaminen on
molempien ekonomistien mielestä hyvä veto.
"Verohelpotukset
ovat tehokkain keino" – Verkkouutiset
Riippumaton ekonomisti Roger Wessman pitää loogisena
ensi vuoden budjettia, jos talouden nopea tasapainottaminen on ykköstavoite.
Henri
Myllyniemi: Kun mitään ei koskaan korjata –
US
kohtia, joita euroalueella tulisi korjata, jotta
voisimme edes joskus päästä niin sanottuun normaaliin päivärytmiin kiinni.
Leikola ja Lähde –
YLE
Hallituskritiikki sataa nyt perussuomalaisten
niskaan
Raha
ja Talous: Ei sittenkään suurta kohtaanto-ongelmaa –
Image