Here
are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the
beginning week. Last week’s post is here.
The blog will enter holiday mood with sporadic posting and shall return to normal in 2016.
Previously
on MoreLiver’s
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on Twitter
LAST WEEK
"Quad
Witches, Bitches" - Stocks Crash On OpEx
5 charts from the
week in markets
– WSJ
NEXT WEEK
Week Ahead – BB
5 Things to Watch
on the Economic Calendar – WSJ
Sliding
oil prices could smudge year-end stocks rally
Weighing the Week
Ahead
– Dash
of Insight
Last
week’s stock market had a Jekyll and Hyde feeling, setting the background for
the two weeks ahead. We will have lighter volume and plenty of people taking
vacation during the holiday-shortened weeks. With plenty of explaining to do
and a new year ahead, we can expect: A Parade of Pontificating Pundits!
With
the holiday season around the corner, this issue of Week Ahead goes an extra
two weeks beyond its mandate. The US steals the show with a steady line of data
releases: GDP figures and PCE prices before Christmas (22 and 23 Dec), ISM and
non-farm payrolls at the onset of the new year (4 and 8 Jan). In Europe, a market
friendly outcome when Spain holds elections this Sunday (20 Dec) is far from
certain.
Markets
are still pricing Fed too dovish in our view with the next hike not priced
until June *
Short-end
US rates should rise in coming months with most of the increase happening in
spring * The USD will strengthen modestly versus EM and commodity currencies;
range-bound versus
EUR
* European equities to outperform * US equities on widening rate differentials
* The wildcard is a continuing fall in the oil price, triggering turmoil in US
high-yield markets and EM.
Macro Weeklyinsi:
First hike after almost 10 years – ABN AMRO
EM FX Weekly: PBoC
seeking a weaker yuan? – ABN AMRO
G10 FX Weekly –
FOMC and oil prices in focus – ABN AMRO
Near-Term
Dollar Outlook: May the Force be With You
End-of-year
"rituals" cloud very near-term outlook * FX markets still adjusting
to implications of the Fed rate hike * EURUSD could face another squeeze higher
if risk-aversion persists * Bears can express a downside view in EURUSD through
options * Downside opportunities also outlined below in GBPJPY, CNHJPY and
AUDUSD