Here
are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the
beginning week. Last week’s post is here.
This post will be updated as new
material is published.
Previously
on MoreLiver’s
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LAST WEEK
"As
If It Never Happened" - Stocks, Bonds, Gold Soar On Draghi "No
Limits" Double-Speak
5
Charts From the Week in Markets - WSJ
NEXT WEEK
US Schedule for
Week
– Bill McBride
Economic Calendar – Berenberg
Week
Ahead – ZH
Volatile
week may set stocks for year-end rally
Weighing
the Week Ahead – Dash of Insight
EU
Week Ahead – WSJ
Next
week is relatively quiet for US and Euro Area economic data and events. Another
busy week in terms of key data from China, which will likely show a continued
gloomy picture of the Chinese economy. The coming week will also sport policy
rate announcements from the Bank of England, the Swiss National Bank and the
Central Bank of Russia. In the Nordics, focus will be on inflation figures.
BoE
center stage in lull between ECB and Fed
ECB
disappointed this week by delivering a rather ‘light’ menu of easing measures *
We nevertheless think that this marks the end of ECB easing as the euro
recovery is set to gain traction in 2016 * Front end of EUR curve re-priced and
now well anchored by ECB done with easing * EUR/USD downside from Fed near term
but we still project rebound in 2016 * Scandi central banks on hold as the
currency war may be drawing to a close * Oil price consolidating near term but
recovery in 2016 as non-OPEC supply cuts expected
The
ECB’s modest package of easing led to a sharp sell-off in equity and fixed
income markets as well as a sharp rise in the euro * With inflation on track to
undershoot the ECB’s goal, we think risks are skewed towards a new round of
stimulus * Strong US job data and Yellen commentary suggest December rate hike
is on – but pace of cycle will be slow
Observations from Positioning
in the Futures Market
– Marc
Chandler
Weekly Outlook – Marc
Chandler
Once
Unleashed, Corrective Forces Dominate
Weekly Market
Summary
– Fat
Pitch
Aside
from the upcoming FOMC meeting, there do not appear to be many strong
impediments to further gains by year-end for US equities. Three scenarios seem possible: 1) A breakout
higher now is likely to be a failed move, especially if it occurs prior to the
December 16 FOMC meeting. This would the best scenario for bears. 2) If
seasonality drops the market ahead of the FOMC, there is likely to be
attractive upside into year-end. This would be the best scenario for bulls. 3) The
most frustrating scenario would be if stocks chop up and down both into and
following the FOMC meeting; unfortunately, that has most often been the case at
other times the Fed was initiating rate hikes.