Here
are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the
beginning week. Last week’s roundup-post is here.
Previously
on MoreLiver’s:
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LAST WEEK
After
"Pause That Refreshes" 'Investors' Panic-Buy Stocks Back To Record
Highs
NEXT WEEK
Economic
Calendar – Berenberg
Fed
and BOJ Rates; Clinton’s Turn, Apple * Google, Ford, Deutsche Bank, Merck also
will report earnings * U.S. GDP; China hosts G-20 finance ministers, central
bankers
Bank
Stress Tests, Fines for Spain & Portugal and More
Silicon
Valley leads avalanche of quarterly reports
Weighing the Week
Ahead –
Jeff
Miller
This
week’s calendar includes a big serving of data, an FOMC meeting, the Democratic
convention, and plenty of earnings news. The financial media will be asking:
What does the election mean for stocks?
Brexit and business confidence: a net,
widespread improvement in business confidence in France. Limited deterioration in
the Eurozone. The UK plunges * US: We
expect monetary status quo from the Fed. Financial markets regained their calm,
but the rebound in oil prices came to a halt, postponing the date at which
inflation will move back towards target. Prospects for growth, and the way the
Fed sees them, are as dependent as ever on the labour market. * ECB: See you in September: The ECB left
its policy unchanged. The central bank esteems that the Brexit victory
increases the downside risks to European growth, but that it is still too early
to assess the precise effect. Mario Draghi gives a rendezvous in September.
Next
week will be rich in events. We expect no policy changes from the Fed, a 20bp
rate cut from BoJ and not too many banks in need of fresh capital in the Euro
area after EBA releases the result of its EU-wide stress tests. In the Nordics,
Swedish GDP growth is likely to have been robust in Q2, while Norwegian
unemployment have not yet peaked.
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Early
post-Brexit PMI survey indicators suggest the eurozone economy is resilient up
until now though there was a hit to confidence raising risk of weakness ahead *
Meanwhile, the UK looks to be heading for recession, with the PMI contracting
at the sharpest pace since the global financial crisis * The ECB is in
wait-and-see mode but will probably ease further in September, while we think
the BoE will announce a bazooka in August
Bears
Jump on the Euro, but Aussie Bulls may be Caught Leaning the Wrong Way
Will
the FOMC Halt the Dollar's Advance?
The
Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan hold important meetings in the coming
week. The FOMC on Wednesday could try to talk market expectations of a rate
hike a bit higher, while market expectations seem to have got ahead of where
the BoJ is prepared to go. Here are four things to watch in the FX space in the
week ahead.