Here
are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the
beginning week. Last week’s roundup-post is here.
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LAST WEEK
Weekly Market
Review
– ZH
NEXT WEEK
Economic
Calendar – Berenberg
NATO,
Budgets, Brexit Aftermath
After
market spasm, Wall Street looks past Brexit
This
week’s calendar includes plenty of data and a holiday-shortened week. The
employment report looms, with many worried about a repeat of the weak May
results. With Brexit apparently digested and the Fed on hold, I expect some
attention to the possible upside. The financial media will be asking: Is it
time for the summer rally?
Due
to last month’s surprisingly weak labor market numbers, the US employment
report will be the main focus of the upcoming week. While the discussion
continues to be dominated by the Brexit and future format of the EU-UK
relationship, the week will be relatively calm when it comes to economic data.
In the Nordics, the Swedish Riksbank will announce its monetary policy and the
Danish central bank will release data on FX and liquidity.
Prolonged
uncertainty from drawn out Brexit negotiations between the UK and Europe *
European growth will suffer * Emerging markets outside Europe will continue to
perform well * Due to central bank actions yields to stay lower for longer * Bearish
outlook for GBP over next
six
months while safe-haven currencies will perform strongly * European equity to
underperform
US.
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One
week after we woke up to the UK’s decision to leave the EU what have we learnt?
What is still uncertain? It seems financial conditions may not tighten very
aggressively… while another round of global monetary easing looks likely. In
addition, the UK government will almost certainly go ahead and take the country
out of the EU, though the process may not start until 2017… in addition it will
most likely be a tough and long negotiation. Although we have downgraded our
economic forecasts, we do not yet have evidence of the size of the uncertainty
shock… or the extent to which euro contagion will build in the coming period.
Dollar
Consolidation may Continue until Jobs Data