Here
are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the
beginning week. Last week’s ‘Weekly Support’ is here.
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on Twitter
LAST WEEK
Gold
Pops; Banks, Bonds, & Greenback Drop As Trump Takes Office
NEXT WEEK
US Schedule for
Week
– Bill McBride
Economic
Calendar – Berenberg
Optimism
among S&P 500 CEOs as Trump takes power
Europe
talks Trump, space, trade
Weighing
the Week Ahead
– Jeff
Miller
We
have a normal calendar for economic data. There will be important news will
come from corporate earnings reports. Since this earnings season is part of an
inflection point – the end of the earnings recession– it is special. That said,
the uncertainty over policy change has market observers both divided and on
edge. I expect the earnings news to get less attention than normal. With the
queasy, uncertain feeling, the pundits will be asking: Will policy uncertainty
lead to greater stock volatility?
Global: Focus on a
classical nexus The correlation between oil and metals prices and the USD has
become positive during 2016. However it remains fragile. US: Ceasing purchases is the plan Two rate hikes and a supposedly
expansionary fiscal policy raise the question of the downsizing of the Fed's
balance sheet. Italy: Monte dei
Paschi: What’s next? MPS private recapitalisation had not met the expected
success. The bank should be subject to a precautionary recapitalisation
provided by the Italian state. The terms and conditions of MPS recovery plan
need to be reassessed.
We
expect solid Q4 GDP readings for both the US and the UK and also positive
growth news from Euro-area PMIs. In the Nordics, it’s a busy data week for
Sweden. The Turkish central bank will have to raise policy rates to defend the
currency.
January
PMIs, first estimate of 2016 Q4 growth * EZ January consumer confidence * UK
Supreme Court ruling on Tuesday
Trump
inauguration, May’s Brexit speech and China’s presence at Davos may well mark
the end of the world as we know it * Markets taking a relatively relaxed view
on risk with the VIX index
trading
close to decade lows and awaiting a more concrete economic policy announcement
from the Trump administration * The possible shift towards more protectionism
may well hurt the
global
economic outlook * We are bullish on Russia, which is a likely winner from the
new era.
US:
Forward policy, backward data & earnings * LatAm: An experiment in central
bank independence * Asia: Trump and China’s alleged currency manipulation *
Europe: Getting sentimental
Deregulation
Seen to Spur Growth, Trim Risk
Here
comes Donald Trump. Nobody knows what will happen next, but it will certainly
be interesting * Economic data confirms recent trends: improvement confidence,
modest rise inflation * ECB on hold, Draghi tells moaning Germans to be patient
Speculative
Positioning
– Marc
Chandler
Speculators
Swing Back to Net Long Aussie
FX Outlook – Marc
Chandler
Dollar
Still Appears to Carving out a Bottom
Macro Comment – Marc
Chandler
The Challenging Week Ahead