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EUROPE
Risk sharing across the US and Eurozone: The
role of public institutions
– VOX
The US achieves more
intensive risk sharing largely because of a more integrated financial market,
and also that the contribution of public institutions to risk sharing is much
higher in the Eurozone than in the US. The reason why the Eurozone needs more
fiscal transfers to withstand idiosyncratic shocks is not because these
institutions should do more to improve risk sharing, but because delegation of
risk sharing to national governments threatens the stability of the currency
union.
A New Deal to Save Europe – Project
Syndicate
Yanis Varoufakis: In the
wake of the euro crisis, Europeans shudder at the thought of giving the EU more
power over their lives and communities. That's why an alternative to EU
leaders' push for European federalism must be found.
Italian crisis * German
exports * Security
UNITED KINGDOM
UNITED KINGDOM
Pound bulls emboldened
as sterling advances to one-month high – BB
UK economy probably ended
year on a high ahead of weaker 2017 – BB
Mark Gilbert: The U.K.'s
Threat to Weaponize Tax Is No Bluff – BB
Why Brexit court case
won’t change much – Politico
May Plans Short Brexit Bill If Supreme Court Rules Against Her – BB
May Plans Short Brexit Bill If Supreme Court Rules Against Her – BB
Theresa May outlines
plans to boost British industry – Politico
UNITED STATES
CEOs say they can
persuade Trump to drop campaign pledges * ‘If he knows the facts, he’ll respond
according to the facts’
Companies Can’t Stop Talking About the Strong Dollar – WSJ
How a Strong Dollar Weighs on Net Exports – Marc Chandler
TRUMP
How to work in the new
administration when you don’t agree with Trump – Reuters
Cass Sunstein: Why
Trump's First 50 Days Are Decisive – BB
Trump's Plans for
Spending Spook Foreign Bond Buyers – BB
Trump signs order to withdraw from Trans-Pacific trade deal – Politico
Trump signs order to withdraw from Trans-Pacific trade deal – Politico
Trump Revamps Trade
Focus by Pulling Out of Pacific Deal – BB
Trump pulls out of
Pacific trade deal, loosening Asia ties – Reuters
Trump Promises Business
Leaders Major Border Tax, Rule Cuts – BB
Canada Signals Possible
U.S. Trade Deal That Excludes Mexico – BB
Doubt whether Trump Can Turn
His Promises Into Policy – BB
Highlights: Donald Trump
in first full week as U.S. president – Reuters
OTHER
COT: Bullish
commodity bets highest since June 2014 – TF
COT: Dollar sold ahead of ECB, Trump inauguration – TF
COT: Dollar sold ahead of ECB, Trump inauguration – TF
Macro Monday: Go for gold but watch USD long term – TF
UK
court ruling on Brexit will be important for sterling * Citi index shows that
inflation is grinding higher everywhere * In the short term gold rules, but USD
will again have its day
How The Bull Market Could End According To Credit Suisse – ZH
How The Bull Market Could End According To Credit Suisse – ZH
(chart
overview – drivers look toppish)
Equity Generalists
Increasingly Uncomfortable With Reflation Trades – ZH
Satyajit Das: Why
Inflation Won't Last
– BB
[video] Conversation With George Soros at Davos – BB / Youtube
Noah Smith: Why the U.S.
Has a Monopoly on Jobless Recoveries - BB
New eBook: The Long
Economic and Political Shadow of History – VOX
Over the past decades, economists working on growth have ‘rediscovered’
the importance of history, leading to the emergence of a vibrant, far-reaching
inter-disciplinary stream of work. This
column introduces a new eBook in three volumes which examines key themes in
this emergent literature and discusses the impact they have on our
understanding of the long-run influence of historical events on current
economics.
REGULARS
Danske Daily
– Danske
Bank
Eye-Opener
– Nordea
Signs of solid growth in the US and
Europe? * Long end swap rates continue to be impacted by ESM * Scandi
currencies rose on increased risk sentiment
Morning Markets
– TF
We've had a weekend to digest
Trump's inauguration speech and while the new president has put in motion a
raft of executive orders pulling back on much of Obama's legacy the failure to
elaborate on his plans for a $1 trillion stimulus package has sent dollar into
a downward spiral.
From the Floor
— TF
US president Donald Trump delivered
a strongly nationalist inaugural address Friday, reinvigorating fears of
protectionism that led to the dollar selling off versus its G10 rivals.
Euro wrap-up
– Daiwa
Daily Market Comment
– Marc
Chandler
Dollar's Pre-Weekend Retreat
Extended in Asia Before Stabilizing in Europe
Daily Press Summary
– Open
Europe
Brussels Playbook
– Politico
Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day – BB
Dollar falls * Treasury showdown *
OPEC shrugs off Trump * Markets slip * Big Brexit week
10 things you need to know before the opening bell – BI
US Open – ZH
Futures, Dollar Slide; European
Stocks At 3-Week Lows As "Trump Reality Sets In"
Frontrunning
– ZH
FX Update
– TF
The market felt that US president
Donald Trump’s hostile protectionist inaugural address was more cause for
unease and uncertainty triggering a bond market rally and a further slide in
the US dollar particularly USDJPY which remains the highest beta play on USD
direction.
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Tällä viikolla julkaistaan USA:n ja Ison-Britannian
vuoden 2016 viimeisen neljänneksen BKT-luvut * Odotamme euroalueen
ostopäällikköindeksien nousseen entisestään joulukuussa * Markkinoiden reaktio
Trumpin virkaanastujaispuheeseen oli hillitty
Martti
Hetemäki: Työllisyys ja julkinen talous – VM
Pohjoismaisen hyvinvointimallin rahoitus perustuu korkeaan työllisyysasteeseen. Suomessa työllisyysaste jäänyt selvästi jälkeen muista Pohjoismaista. Nykykehityksen jatkuessa palvelujen ja etuuksien rahoitus ajautuu umpikujaan
Pohjoismaisen hyvinvointimallin rahoitus perustuu korkeaan työllisyysasteeseen. Suomessa työllisyysaste jäänyt selvästi jälkeen muista Pohjoismaista. Nykykehityksen jatkuessa palvelujen ja etuuksien rahoitus ajautuu umpikujaan