Here
are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the
beginning week.
Follow ‘MoreLiver’
on Twitter
LAST WEEK
'Bannon
Bounce' Fails To Correct 'Cohn Crash' As Nasdaq Drops For 4th Straight Week
Saber
Rattling Keeps Equity Fund Investors on the Sidelines for the Week
Earnings Insight Aug
11
– Factset
NEXT WEEK
Janet
Yellen and Mario Draghi will be among the Jackson Hole speakers. Breaking news
seems unlikely, but even details can move markets. From the Nordics, we expect
strong employment numbers out of Sweden and solid a Norwegian GDP report.
Jackson
Hole * PMI’s and IFO
We stress that risks to our newly updated
yield forecasts are that the drivers we see for higher
yields in 2018 materialise much earlier
than we forecast. This is especially the
case for the US
fixed income market. * First of all, our
business cycle model, Macroscope, is predicting that the US economy will
re-accelerate in the coming months. This is contrary to market consensus. * Secondly,
we are in a situation where the market is positioned for lower yields. When the
market is caught wrong-footed it often leads to exaggerated moves. * Thirdly,
the market has flattened the US money market curve and has only priced a 40%
probability of a new rate hike this year. We think the market underestimates the
risk of a December rate hike. The 5y point of the US curve is
most exposed.
US:
No Yellen? * Canada: Moderation or end of the party? * LatAm: Peru’s
stabilizing economy * Asia: Bank Indonesia may ease again * Europe: Divergent
growth signals
Jobless
Rate’s Waning Influence on Inflation and the Fed
Normalisation
of monetary policy key uncertainty in period ahead * Odds of Trump not serving
a full term are shortening * Stellar growth of the Dutch economy
Speculators
Add to Sterling and Peso Shorts, While Cutting Euro and Canadian Dollar Longs
Is
the Dollar's August Consolidation Drawing to a Close?
Macro Comment – Marc
Chandler
Transitioning
to a New Phase
FX weekly: Q4 is
the USD-quarter
– Nordea
USD
is about to see some tailwind from improvements in US macro and from
USD-scarcity in Q4, while we see several reasons to fade the post inflation
rally in SEK.