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EUROPE
German
chancellor faces hard talks with centre-left on Sunday to secure fourth term,
but rightwingers may cause trouble
The
European political year, grinding back into gear for 2018, is full of doubt,
even woe. In the continent’s major countries politics are stuck, or likely to
stick, in cul-de-sacs from which exit is difficult. Only in France, under the
banner not so much of the tricolor as the injunction En Marche! (Let’s Go!), is
there official optimism and vigor.
Recovery
seems to be going into overdrive - for how long can that continue? * Eurozone
indicators close to historical highs * The political conundrum * Growth
momentum and solid base effects
Denmark: Growth running
at 2%, with risks more towards overheating than the opposite * Sweden: Housing investment will no longer ensure high
growth * Norway: Oil investments set to drive growth as housing investment
slows * Finland: Growth set to slow a little but remain high.
Euro-Area Economic Confidence Soars to Nearly
Two-Decade High – BB
Index rose to 116 in
December, forecast was for 114.8 * 2017 economic growth set to have been
strongest in a decade
UNITED STATES
The
macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On
balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely.
Republicans, Democrats Far Apart on Deal as
Shutdown Clock Ticks – BB
Less than two weeks
remain to work out agreement on spending * Immigration, budget caps are two
major issues unresolved
Bannon’s Olive Branch Too Late for Angry Trump – BB
Fallout continues from
book portraying White House dysfunction * Trump gives aides a choice: you’re
with Bannon, or with me
El-Erian: U.S. Needs a Well-Designed
Infrastructure Plan – BB
The question isn't the
economic or financial desirability of such a program, but its political
feasibility.
MARKETS
/ OTHER
The
financial markets have started 2018 where they left off in 2017. Manifold
geopolitical risks continue to be treated as background noise, and a stream of
mildly positive growth surprises continue to keep asset prices buoyant. In our view,
forecasters may still be underestimating the upswing, in which case a bigger
threat to the markets’ mood may come from inflation. 2018 may give some answers
to the puzzle as to why inflation hasn’t already stirred.
Five macro themes for 2018 – Danske Bank
Robust
global recovery continues * Inflation to stay subdued * The (long) road to
monetary policy ‘normalisation’ * Political risks to remain in check * China
the main downside risk to global growth
U.S. Equity
Melt-Up Already Obliterating Analysts' 2018 Targets – BB
Equity Euphoria
Grips the Entire World – BB
I Can't Shake This
Feeling....More on USD/JPY – Macro
Man
REGULARS
UK cabinet reshuffle, Iran’s English ban, PwC’s drones unit
U.K. Companies Tighten Belts, Apple Investors Question Social
Responsibility
We are heading for a quieter week in terms of data where inflation takes
centre stage after activity numbers were in the spotlight last week.
Daily Market Comment – Marc
Chandler
Dollar Posts Modest Upticks to Start the New Week
Barnier meets Farage — EU budget battle begins — Peter Sutherland dead at
71
Five Things You Need to
Know to Start Your Day – BB
https://www.bloomberg.com/authors/ARIYqLnEHrg/lorcan-roche-kelly
US Open – ZH
Euphoria Sends Global Stocks To New Record Highs, Korean Won Boosts
Dollar With Overnight Fireworks
Frontrunning – ZH
FINNISH
Tällä viikolla huomio kohdistuu inflaatiolukuihin | USA:n
työmarkkinaraportti oli hieman odotuksia heikompi | Tänään ei ole tulossa
merkittäviä datajulkistuksia
Hallitus patistelee työttömiä töihin, vaikka
työllisyysaste on jo lähellä huippulukemiaan. Ongelma ei ole suomalaisten
laiskistuminen vaan ikääntyminen.