EUROPE
APRIL
FLASH PMI
Flash Eurozone Composite
PMI – Markit
Flash Germany Composite
PMI – Markit
Flash France Composite
PMI – Markit
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
ECB Is Said to See
Scope to Wait for July to Signal End of QE – BB
Policy
makers want time to judge if economic slowdown persists * Governing Council has
had no talks on interest-rate strategies
ECB Watch:
Patience is a virtue
– Nordea
We
expect an unchanged forward guidance next week. In the current environment, the
ECB will want to postpone decisions on the future of its asset purchases for as
long as possible. The balance of risks in markets is tilted towards a dovish
surprise.
ECB Capitulates On Defusing Eurozone's "$1
Trillion Ticking Time Bomb" – ZH
MARKETS / OTHER
MARKETS
Key Events This Week – ZH
Earnings Avalanche; ECB, QE, GDP On Deck
Commodities Crumble
After US Says It May Ease Rusal Sanctions – ZH
Investors Dump
High Yield Bond Funds Most Since Election – ZH
Earnings Roundup:
S&P 500 Companies Clear a High Bar – Lipper
Alpha
Amidst
a high bar, S&P 500 companies have not disappointed and are on track to set
a new record, with 79.3% of companies reporting earnings above expectations
Goldman: Expect Higher Volatility As "Buybacks Won't Return For Weeks" – ZH
Goldman: Expect Higher Volatility As "Buybacks Won't Return For Weeks" – ZH
80%
of S&P 500 firms are currently in their buyback blackout windows, meaning
they generally avoid - but are not prohibited from - repurchasing stock.
Furthermore, April is one of the weakest months for the buyback basket, as
share repurchase spend is extremely low during the blackout window.
BofA: "The
Key Story For The Bond Market Is About To Play Out" – ZH
Also
Deutsche Bank: fiscal shocks migrating to front end *
Citi: "2018 Is Not Going To Plan" – ZH
Where next for central banks? – ING
Everything
you need to know about central bank policy around the world
Global
momentum remains strong, but US trade policy is generating much uncertainty * The
strength of global demand is leading to a significant increase in most
commodity prices relative to last year.
Commodity Monthly – ABN AMRO
Geo-politics
and sanctions support commodities
TRADE WARS
Europe in diplomatic push to ease Russia
sanctions – FT
Paris-led effort to
convince Trump comes after US measures send metals prices soaring
Europe Now Pushing Trump Administration To Ease
Russian Sanctions – ZH
Commodities Crumble After US Says It May Ease Rusal Sanctions – ZH
U.S. Softens Stance on Rusal Sanctions; Aluminum
Plunges – BB
Mnuchin says U.S. is
reviewing Rusal request to lift sanctions * U.S. statement adds pressure on
Deripaska to give up control
After Weeks of Mayhem, U.S. Throws Aluminum
Industry a Lifeline – BB
Aluminum plunged in
London after Treasury’s announcement * Traders get more time to unwind business
with Russian company
Base
case US-China trade tensions contained, economic impact limited * We explore
two additional negative scenarios, and the macro and monetary policy
implications
OTHER
What Global
Finance Chiefs Are Saying About the Global Economy – BB
Trade
tensions dominate amid little sign of progress * Policy makers flag several
near term downside risks to growth
How China Is
Buying Its Way Into Europe – BB
China has bought or invested in assets amounting to at least $318 billion
over the past 10 years. The continent saw roughly 45 percent more China-related
activity than the U.S. during this period, in dollar terms, according to
available data.
REGULARS
FirstFT Daily Briefing – FT
EU budget shake-up, plastic overdose, Queen’s Awards
WSJ City – WSJ
UBS Posts a Profit Rise, Traders Worry About Liquidity, Why the
Flattening Yield Curve Isn’t Just the Fed’s Problem
WSJ Economics – WSJ
Are States Unprepared for the Next Recession? | Oil Prices Bubble |
Amazon’s Pay
“Best of the web” daily
charts – Lukas
Daalder
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank
Daily Market Comment – Marc
Chandler
Rising Rates Help Extend Dollar Gains
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Blowing the whistle — Macron, the Trump whisperer — How Obama saved Italy
US Open – ZH
Stocks Stumble As 10Y Hits 2.996%; Dollar Squeeze Accelerates
FX Weekly: Relative
curvature is the new king of FX – Nordea
While classic rates spreads have not been able to explain the recent
moves in the G10 space, relative curvature is. The relative steepness of the
yield curves has been the best G10 indicator since 2016. Relative curvature is
the new king of FX.
FINNISH
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