EUROPE
We
think the EU elections will be less of a shock event than many fear. Polls
point to some erosion of the political centre, with Social Democrats and
Conservatives losing their absolute majority for the first time since 1979. But
this should easily be offset by gains for the Liberals and Greens, paving the
way for broader alliances and more diverse debates in the parliament. Although
the political centre could be more fragmented after the 2019 elections, the
overall sentiment in the European Parliament should remain pro-EU.
More FDR for
Germany
– ING
Even
hawkish German economists are finally discussing changes to the debt brake but,
unfortunately, a lot more needs to happen before this discussion enters the
political arena. Perhaps Germany needs a lesson from Franklin D Roosevelt...
Danske Bank scandal buried in Europe – CityUnslicker
The
board members of the EBA are other National Bank regulators and they have
concluded that their own banks may well be doing this, so it is best to make
sure there is no punishment for this, as they and their own countries will be
next.
Spain's Election
Is a Radical Opportunity – BB
A
coalition between the Socialists and the centrists looks a long shot, but the
benefits for the country’s economy would be considerable.
The Spanish
Election Is a Triumph of Logic – BB
In
a fragmented political environment, the old left-right divisions still matter.
What Macron Is
Doing Right
– BB
He’s
listening to the people, and so far insisting on economic reform.
Wolfgang Münchau: The
unbreakable, unsustainable eurozone – FT
Without
an ECB to do the heavy lifting in the next crisis, real reform will be needed
Polar powers:
Russia’s bid for supremacy in the Arctic Ocean – FT
As
climate change opens northern shipping lanes, Moscow is spending billions to
dominate the region
UNITED STATES
1)
President Trump is re-elected. He retrenches his views on international trade
and multilateral institutions. 2) A non-Trump Republican wins, likely leading
to another round of tax legislation, along with establishing protections for
privacy 3) A centrist Democrat wins. Increased federal spending on both
infrastructure and healthcare, as well as increased efforts to establish a
national single payer service. 4) A populist Democrat is elected. Significant
fiscal expansion fuelled by increased corporate tax rates, which includes both
support for environmental projects (funding a ‘Green New Deal’) as well as
redistributive spending.
OTHER
Key Events This
Extremely Busy Week
– ZH
Even
Volatility May Rise From The Dead
REGULARS
Five Things to
Start Your Day Asia
– BB
Eco Day Asia – BB
Global
Economy's Test, 1995 on Fed's Mind, Taiwan Cash * Spain economy likely to be
boosted by socialist Sanchez’s win * India slips further behind China over
first five years of Modi
Five Things to
Start Your Day Europe
– BB
FirstFT Daily
Briefing
– FT
Brussels Briefing – FT
Spain’s
shattered right hands Sánchez victory: The result was a vindication of the
candidate’s moderate, low-key campaign strategy
Brussels Edition – BB
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Sánchez
wins big in Spain — France first, Balkans second? — Juncker’s secret
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank
Spain
could see government without Catalan separatists
Eco Day Europe – BB
China
to Boost Europe, Trade Talks, A Data-Heavy Week * Rebound in no. 2 economy will
benefit euro area, Goldman says * U.S., China return to table in another round
of trade talks
Daily Market
Comment
– Marc
Chandler
Five Things to
Start Your Day US
– BB
US Open Rundown – RANsquawk
US Open – ZH
US
Futures Drift Lower As Chinese Stocks Extend Worst Drop Of 2019
Eco Day US – BB
Fed's
1990s Playbook, Trade Talks, Carney Isn't Sorry * Central bank may end up
seeing 1995-96 rate cuts as template * U.S., China face unresolved issues as
Trump-Xi meeting awaited
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Tällä viikolla vuorossa USA:n inflaatioluvut, Fedin
kokous ja USA-Kiina -kauppaneuvotteluja | Mihin suuntaan Kiinan ja USA:n
ostopäällikköindeksit kehittyvät? | USA:n korot laskussa BKT-julkaisun
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