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Trade war prompts
economists to downgrade growth outlooks * Fed says it will be patient rather
than cut interest rates
End of May * Game
of phones * EM tantrum without the taper * On the road again
UK leadership
likely to dominate the headlines * Swedish housing woes set to continue
plaguing economic growth * Canada: Emerging out of the soft patch
Trade & tech
war risks exterminating all kinds of green shoots * Macro data may also be old
hat * Dovish Fed expectations limit downside in US 10y yields, if there’s no
digital iron curtain…
As sentiment turns
sour, we look for hard data to match
Germany’s Ifo
plunges while French business confidence improves *Unexpected re-emergence of
the trade conflict most unwelcome * May to step down
Government Bonds Weekly – Danske Bank
Go long 10Y Spain versus France and buy new 20Y Green bond from the Netherlands versus swaps
As May winds down,
the light economic calendar will allow investors to take their cues from the
evolution of three disruptive forces--trade, Brexit and the US economy.
The US
blacklisting of Huawei is a clear escalation of the trade war; Xi-Trump meeting
in June could be at risk * Xi Jinping prepares people for a new 'Long March'
and calls for self-reliance * Poor US manufacturing data challenges Trump's
'maximum pressure' strategy
Poland: Second
estimate of 1Q GDP to confirm decent economic performance * Turkey: The only
way is up? * National Bank of Hungary: Keeping things quiet - for now * Czech
Republic: Possible downward growth revision for the first quarter
China: Trade war
impact is coming through * Korea: Mixed market signals on BoK policy * India:
The best of election-related market rally is behind
Week ahead – FT
FX
Weekly – Nordea
Week
in Focus – Ransquawk