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Wednesday, May 29

29th May - Pessimistic markets #4101


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EUROPE
Germany’s unemployment rate rises for first time since 2013 – FT
Number of jobless Germans climbs most in a decade

EU leaders agree to pick new 'Mr or Ms Europe' next month – Reuters

EU fires first shot in possible new clash over Italy debt – Reuters
EU Confirms Italy Risks Massive Fine Over Debt – ZH

  EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Negative ECB rates are a boon for euro zone banks, says de Guindos – Reuters
Super low rates are a boon for banks rather than a hindrance, ECB Vice President de Guindos said, setting the tone for a debate on whether lenders should be compensated.

Rehn says ECB ready to react if slowdown persists – Reuters

Financial Stability Review, May 2019 – ECB

Economic shocks and contagion in the euro area banking sector – ECB
The system could be more vulnerable to financial contagion through long-term interbank exposures than noted in other studies. That said, common exposures to the real economy – a standard contagion channel in the literature – represent a potential source of individual bank distress and non-systemic events.

Macroprudential space and current policy trade-offs in the euro area – ECB
barring a severe economic downturn, even under a scenario of moderate economic growth a gradual build-up of cyclically adjustable buffers could be considered to help create the necessary macroprudential space and to reduce the procyclicality of the financial system in an economic and financial downturn.


UNITED STATES
Mueller says he could not charge Trump as Congress weighs impeachment – Reuters
Mueller said his investigation into Russia's interference in the 2016 election was never going to end with criminal charges against Trump and indicated it was up to Congress to decide if it should impeach Trump.

Mueller says charging Trump was ‘not an option’
– FT
Special counsel signals Congress has responsibility for holding president to account

Mueller Has a Parting Gift for Trump: No More Surprises – BB
The special counsel has nothing more to say, which is a promise or a threat, depending on your view of the president.

Mueller’s Remarks Put the Onus on Congress. So What Next? – BB
Lawmakers have a responsibility to act on the special counsel’s evidence of foreign interference in the 2016 election. Impeachment isn't the only option.


US Threatens Europe With "Loss Of Access To US Financial System" Over SWIFT-Evading Iran SPV – ZH


OTHER
Climate change and financial stability – ECB

Martin Wolf: States create useful money, but abuse it – FT
To the extent modern monetary theory is true, it is unoriginal; to the extent it is original, it is false

Morgan Stanley on yield curve collapse: much worse than you think – ZH


REGULARS
Five Things to Start Your Day Asia – BB
China Avoids Currency Manipulator Label * Trade Angst Spreads * Singapore Leapfrogs Hong Kong, U.S * Amazon’s Mom & Pop Purge * Succession in Shambles

Eco Day Asia – BB
China Dodges FX Tag, Sentiment Slumps, RBA Seen at 0.5% * New Zealand budget in disarray as hackers raid Treasury system * Canadian insiders see BOE’s Carney as Justin Trudeau successor

Five Things to Start Your Day Europe – BB
Down Again * Euro Zone Confusion * Face Off * Dollar’s Run

EU Open Rundown – RANsquawk

FirstFT Daily Briefing – FT

Brussels Briefing – FT
Who’s up and who’s down in the EU top jobs race: EU leaders emerge from post-election summit with no certainty over who will prevail

Brussels Edition – BB

Brussels Playbook – Politico
Summit to talk about — The Spitz is alive — Merkel stands by Weber

Danske Daily – Danske Bank
US curve flattens again and the recession fear is once again out of the bottle

Eco Day Europe – BB
China Dodges FX Tag, Fed Departures, RBA Seen at 0.5% * Treasury expands currency watchlist to nine, from six nations * China’s economy weakened in May amid renewed trade woes

Daily Market Comment – Marc Chandler
Equity Slump Deepens while Yields Plunge

Five Things to Start Your Day US – BB

US Open Rundown – RANsquawk

US Open – ZH
Markets Tumble, S&P Below 2,800, Bond Yields Crater As Traders Brace For Impact

Eco Day US – BB
China Dodges Currency Tag, Canada Decision, USMCA Trip * Treasury expands foreign-exchange watchlist to nine nations * China gears up to weaponize rare earths in its trade war


FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Suomen ensimmäisen neljänneksen kasvuluvut olivat pettymys, myös Ruotsin BKT-luvut julkaistaan tänään | USA:ssa ja euroalueella kuluttajien luottamus oli nousussa toukokuussa | Kauppasotauhitteluun jälleen lisää kierroksia