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Saturday, August 31

31st Aug - Weekly Links #4162


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EUROPE
Populism and Protest Lurk Behind Europe’s Dying Coal Mines
BB
Enraged voters in Germany’s mining heartland are on the verge of a rebellion.

German slowdown spells troublePolitico
The shrinking German economy suggests the Midas touch of its longtime leader is fading.

The Summer That Busted Myths About EuropeWSJ
Brexit wasn’t the start of a revolution. If anything, it has shown why Europeans tend to tolerate the EU.

Europe’s last line of defensePolitico
Calls for a more protectionist European economic model are growing, thanks to the trade war and Euroskeptic populists.

  ITALY
Italian Fiasco Proves One Thing About the Far Right
BB
Radical nationalist parties are deeply unreliable coalition partners.

Italy parties reach tentative deal on new government FT
Ten-year bond yield falls below 1% on expectations of investor-friendly outcome

Five Star sets more demands for new Italy coalitionFT
Ultimatum reduces hopes that Conte can quickly form government with centre-left

Editorial: Italy’s Progressive SurpriseWSJ
The establishment and insurgent left team up to take out Matteo Salvini.

  MIGRATION
The EU’s Migrant Policy Is Lost at SeaBB
Europe should be aiding the NGOs that rescue drowning migrants, not punishing them.

Europe’s refugee policy is adrift FT
Financial incentives are needed to convince countries to share the migrant burden

  FISCAL POLICY
Taking stock of the functioning of the EU fiscal rules and options for reformECB

Editorial: Europe needs a stronger anchor for fiscal policyFT
An EU-wide spending rule would be simpler and clearer than the focus on deficits

The potential for euro fiscal stimulusABN AMRO
The call for fiscal stimulus in the eurozone is becoming louder but the room for stimulus is limited by EU rules and national political choices.  We have calculated the potential room for stimulus from different perspectives, with the resulting amounts varying from around EUR65bn to around EUR160bn.  This could potentially lift eurozone GDP growth by between 0.25 and 0.75 pps. Current indications are that any stimulus would be at the lower end of the range

  EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Can the ECB achieve shock and awe?ABN AMRO
Size of asset purchases is where there is room to surprise * Rate cuts * Mitigating measures * Net asset purchases * Forward guidance * Review of inflation aim *

Draghi Gets Warnings From ECB Hawks as Stimulus Talks NearBB
Knot, Weidmann, Lautenschlaeger don’t support resuming QE * Several banks have predicted a stimulus package on Sept. 12

Dudley’s Vision of a Political Central Bank Is Alive. In Europe.BB
Mario Draghi shows that central bankers can be politicians, too.

Sluggish eurozone consumer price growth pose headache for ECBFT
Annual regional inflation remains at 1 per cent, well below target

Eurozone disinflation to spread to core in coming monthsABN AMRO
Core inflation to be dampened by upcoming labour market deterioration and weak global price pressures


UNITED STATES
  FEDERAL RESERVE
The Fed Shouldn’t Enable Donald Trump BB
The central bank should refuse to play along with an economic disaster in the making.

The Fed Needs to Fight Against Trump’s Trade War, Not TrumpBB
The central bank’s job is to respond to shocks to the economy, regardless of their source.

Trump Is Rude But Right About the FedBB
In allowing money to tighten, the central bank may turn the microeconomic damage of a trade conflict into a recession.

Editorial: Someone Just Blew a Hole in the Volcker RuleBB
The Trump administration couldn’t leave well enough alone.

The Fed’s Stimulus Might Be Undermining GrowthBB
What if low interest rates are bad for productivity?


OTHER
Asia digs up and burns three-quarters of the world’s coal Economist
That must change if the climate is not to

How the G7 fell for the Amazon scamPolitico
The fires aren’t an epochal event, and aren’t the spontaneous result of global warming.

Trump’s Greenland gambit might be crazy — but it could also be the futurePolitico
Notions of territorial control will likely get a little more fluid in the future.

The corrupting of democracy Economist
Cynicism is gnawing at Western democracies

Editorial: How central bankers can survive populist attacksFT
Rate-setters should remain calm and tell the unvarnished truth

How economic integration fuels macroeconomic imbalances
BoE

Central banks can no longer afford to act in isolationFT
International spillovers from monetary policy have been amplified by increased globalization

Adair Turner: Central banks have lost much of their cloutFT
Monetary policy is no longer enough to keep the economy on track

Perspectives Summer 2019 Pictet
The era of economic slowbalisation *

Monitoring Global Financial Stability IMF

  CHINA
China Rebukes EU, U.S. Politicians for Interfering on Hong Kong BB

China’s ‘helicopter money’ is blowing up a bubble FT
Investment implications go far beyond the mainland’s markets

Tide Goes Out for China's Skinny-Dipping Banks BB
An accounting rule change and an economic slowdown are combining to magnify losses on loans and financial assets.

Bond market not betting on China reviving growthFT
Drive into haven assets points to deeper worries than just the trade war

China to impose ‘social credit’ system on foreign companiesFT
EU chamber of commerce warns over risks from emerging rating framework

China Factory Outlook Worsens in August as Trade War EscalatesBB