Matteo
Salvini won’t be able to hide behind Giovanni Tria and Luigi Di Maio now. He’ll
have to show exactly where he stands on fiscal policy and Europe.
Three
political scenarios for Italy with FX and rates implications – ING
The
collapse of Italy's ruling coalition opens the way for three possible
scenarios: new elections, an extension of the current coalition or a new
technocratic government. Timing will be crucial, given the proximity to the
budget season. Rising political uncertainty is likely to prompt a widening in
the 10Y BTP-Bund spread and to weigh on the euro
Italian
Political Turmoil Provides a Reminder of Economic Pain – BB
Country’s
economy grew in just one of last five quarters * Salvini-headed government is
likely to renew clash with EU
Russia
View: Five years under sanctions – Nordea
Over
the last five years, the Russian economy has been on a much lower trajectory
compared to previous growth cycles. Poor demographics, weakness in the business
climate, and tighter fiscal and monetary policies are the primary reasons we
see for the sluggish growth, but we believe sanctions have also played a
non-negligible role.
The
UK economy contracts – should we be worried? – ING
Firms
unwound stock levels during the second quarter, tipping the UK into negative
growth for the first time since 2012. Decent consumer spending suggests a
technical recession should be avoided, but the potential for business
investment to decline further is still a cause for concern
Depositors
Are Next as Nordic Banks Buckle Under Negative Rates – BB
Nordea’s
main investor says retail depositors can’t be spared * Likelihood of cost being
passed on is seen as much higher now
Merkel
Party Head Says Balanced-Budget Goal Remains in Force – BB
OTHER
Central
Banks Cry for Budget Help, But Only Some Are Getting It – BB
Bloomberg’s
global fiscal guide shows who’s adding stimulus * China, U.S. lead way as
German austerity holds Europe back
Trump
Still Has Plenty of Ways to Escalate His China Trade War – BB
Targeting
the dollar, more tariffs give scope to add pressure * Market turmoil may temper
use of tools to leverage on Beijing
REGULARS
Five
Things to Start Your Day Asia – BB
Eco
Day Asia
– BB
Trump’s
Dollar Dismay, RBNZ’s Orr, Even More Rate Cuts * Trade woes to last decades,
Australia’s top bureaucrat says * U.S. holds off on Huawei licenses as China
halts crop-buying
Five
Things to Start Your Day Europe – BB
EU
Open Rundown
– RANsquawk
FirstFT
Daily Briefing
– FT
Brussels
Playbook
– Politico
Italy
on the brink — Migrant crisis repeating — Neigh it ain’t so
Danske
Daily
– Danske
Bank
Italian
government close to an end: Salvini calling for parliamentary vote of
confidence *
Eco
Day Europe
– BB
ECB’s
Headache, U.K. Growth, BOJ Stimulus Chances * U.K. government delays its full
spending review to next year * RBA stands ready to cut rates further on subdued
inflation
Daily
Market Comment
– Marc
Chandler
PBOC
Continues to Check CNY Fall While Euro has Shrugged Off Italy's Political
Turmoil
Five
Things to Start Your Day US – BB
US
Open Rundown
– RANsquawk
Eco
Day US
– BB
Trump's
Trade-War Toolkit, Shrinking U.K., ECB Outlook * Trump still has plenty of ways
to escalate his China trade war * U.K.’s second-quarter slump raises Brexit
stakes for Johnson
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Markkinoilla
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