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Thursday, July 31

31st Jul - Europe's disinflation worsens



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EUROPE
Europe's bond yields lowest since 15th century Genoa on deflation, Russia riskThe Telegraph
German, French and Dutch yields have been sliding for months as the eurozone recovery wilts and several countries flirt with recession

A Chart Of What Europe Economy Really Looks LikeZH

A Portuguese bailout, EU lending and Russia sanctions take limelightTradingFloor
While US growth and the Federal Reserve meeting were big news yesterday, other less palatable developments could have a bigger impact in the short term. Trust is becoming a scarce commodity in Europe.

Key Banco Espirito Santo Takeaways as Shares SlumpWSJ

  UKRAINE / RUSSIA
Sanctions can help break the spiral of war – FT
Oligarchs Blacklisted by EU as U.S. Weighs More Measures – BB

  MACRO NUMBERS
Euro area annual inflation down to 0.4% - Eurostat
Euro Inflation Slowed to 0.4% in July, Lowest Since 2009 – BB
Europe Won't Admit It's Spiraling Into Deflation – BB
Another month, another downside surprise on euro zone inflation – Reuters
Euro Zone Struggles To Stave Off Deflation – WSJ
Euro area staring at deflation as it waits for TLTRO – Sober Look

Euro area unemployment rate at 11.5% - Eurostat

UNITED STATES
Before you get too excited about yesterday’s GDP reportWaPo

The Fed’s Wage WatchWSJ

What to Watch for in Friday’s July Jobs ReportWSJ
Preview: Employment Report for JulyCalculated Risk

Great Graphic: Dissents at the Federal ReserveMarc to Market

  MACRO NUMBERS
Employment Costs Surge Most In 6 Years As Initial Claims Miss – ZH
Wage growth improved in Q2, remains low – FT

Risk Off As Employment Costs Surge – ZH
Jobless Claims Slightly Higher Than Expected – Bespoke
Weekly Unemployment Claims at 302K, Lowest since April 2006 – Calculated Risk

ASIA
China Would Benefit from Slower but Safer GrowthIMF

Article IV Consultation with JapanIMF
Japan's Bumpy Growth Path Puts Premium on Structural ReformsIMF

OTHER
Daily MacroWSJ
A raft of global economic data and news followed the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy decision yesterday. The Fed provided fodder for both hawks and doves, and thus had little market impact. Nor did Argentina’s looming default. But both should remind investors that the risk of losses hasn’t been outlawed by central bank policy. And that risk ought to be compensated, as Banco Espirito Santo’s beleaguered shareholders and bondholders have discovered after it reported enormous losses for the second quarter. Elsewhere, Japanese wage growth lagged inflation, putting the squeeze on domestic consumers. The euro zone edged closer to deflation despite a modest improvement in unemployment. And the U.K. economy might be running out of steam as consumers wake up to the fact that their incomes aren’t keeping up with prices.

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Slow Progress Emerges on the Labor Utilization Front * Growth Rebound Stokes Fed Debate * Euro-Zone Inflation, Jobless Rates Fall * IMF Warns China of Slower Growth Unless Beijing Speeds Up Reforms * Japan’s Wage Growth Slows in June

Dollar Remains Firm, Equities SlideMarc to Market

Monetary policy: the first line of dissent?TradingFloor
US running annualised growth rate of 4% * German exports to Russia down 15% * GBP falters slightly on FX markets

FINNISH
Suomi ja sen itäinen naapuri - ja elokuut 1991 ja 2014MTV

Venäläiset hävittäjät käyttivät Finnairin matkustajakoneita maaleina Jukka Hankamäki

Kokoomus ja keskusta nousussa – SDP ja PS syöksyivät alasYLE
Kokoomus jatkaa suosituimpana puolueena. Yle Uutisten heinäkuun mittauksessa kokoomuksen kannatus nousi 21,8 prosenttiin. Myös keskusta käänsi suosionsa uudelleen nousuun ja keräsi 20,9 prosentin kannatuksen.

Suurten yritysten liikevaihto kesäk. +2,3% YoY – Tilastokeskus