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EUROPE
Lessons from history for the Eurozone Crisis – voxeu
The European Monetary
Union is unprecedented, but the Eurozone Crisis is not. This column draws upon
the experiences of previous banking crises, and compares the Eurozone Crisis
countries. Like Japan before the 1992 crisis, Spain and Ireland had property bubbles fuelled by domestic
credit. The Greek crisis is very distinct from crises in other Eurozone
countries, so a one-size-fits-all policy would be inappropriate. The duration
and severity of past crises suggest the road ahead will continue to be very
rough.
Erste Group Bank AG
(EBS), the Austrian bank earning most of its income in eastern Europe, plunged
as a bad-debt clean-up forced by Romanian regulators and fee refunds in Hungary will cause a record loss this year.
The euro crisis may
have eased recently, but companies and countries in the common currency zone
still aren't investing enough to fuel growth. The best solution, a Berlin
economics institute argues, is to establish an EU-wide investment fund
EU unemployment
figures, crisis in Iraq, and who should be the next President of the
European Council?
Slavoj Žižek: There’s a ‘feigned naivety’
towards the eurosceptics – voxeurop
EUROPEAN
CENTRAL BANK
T-(rompe-l’Oeil)-LTRO – Bruegel
SWEDEN
Swedish Sadomonetarist Setback – Krugman
/ NYT
SEK FI Strategy - Reality check – Nordea
In this analysis we
navigate through the new Riksbank forecast and look at the resulting fair
values in SEK front-end fixed income instruments...
UNITED STATES
Those deep ties
potentially give Mrs. Clinton a financial advantage in the 2016 presidential
election, if she runs, and could bring industry donors back to the Democratic
Party for the first time since Mr. Clinton left the White House.
JPM Cuts Its Original 2014 GDP Forecast In
Half, Sees Slowest Growth Since 2009 – ZH
ASIA
Abe’s Long March – Project
Syndicate
Ian Buruma: Japanese
Prime Minister Abe Shinzo’s coalition government has decided to “reinterpret”
the postwar Japanese constitution. The new interpretation would allow Japan to
use military force in support of an ally if Japanese security is under threat –
a decision directed squarely at China.
Economic tinkering not
delivering hoped-for recovery * Spectre of widespread insolvency through
triangular debt looming on horizon * Move to aggressively lower cost of
borrowing, boost credit supply imminent
China coal prices just hit a record low hardly supports the smog-choking
industry of China being at 7-month highs... Hard data vs soft surveys? You decide.
MARKETS
John's observations
from Camp Alphaville fall into four broad categories: China, Energy, central banks and FX. Please scroll
through this page to locate your particular field of interest.
Are Markets Underestimating Rate Hike Risks? – WSJ
From here to eternity in the age of low
interest rates – TradingFloor
A dangerous
predilection towards economic modelling based on permanently low interest rates
is beginning to dominate consensus thinking. For those of us who have vivid
memories of former crises such as 1987 and 1992, this illusion will over time
exacerbate systemic risk.
Part 2: What Factors Drive the Performance of
Momentum Strategies? – CSS
Analytics
The Most Powerful Person In Finance At Every
Age – BI
How to Win By Doing Less – Fool
You might think
successful investors are brilliant minds who can calculate complicated things
with precision. They rarely are. The best are more like baseball players, able
to solve complicated problems by using simple rules of thumb.
What’s a hedge fund manager to do? – The
Reformed Broker
BNP
PARIBAS
Why Pick on BNP Paribas? – Project
Syndicate
To many Europeans, the
$8.9 billion fine imposed by the US on the French financial-services company BNP
Paribas for violating American sanctions against Cuba, Iran, and Sudan seems excessive. Three factors explain, if not
justify, the size of the penalty.
The way for regulators to hit a bank where it
hurts: a ban from markets – WaPo
The fine and the
criminal charges are nothing to sneeze at, but the management shake out and
dollar-clearing suspension arguably accomplished what some say is a rare feat
in financial justice: a punishment proportional to the crime.
ECONOMICS
Global Macro In 1 Simple Chart – ZH
The US and UK are the 'best' performing world economies
based on PMIs. Despite slumping real incomes, surging gas prices, a dismal Q1,
fading Q2 growth expectations, and the US being the worst relative performing
macro-surprise index in the world this year, it is the cleanest clean shirt
with the great expansion based on soft-survey data. France joins Korea at the
bottom of the global pile of macro-economic performers with Russia, Brazil,
Australia, and Greece also in contraction.
Don’t Cry for Them: The World’s Biggest
Sovereign Defaults Since 2000
– WSJ
DEBATE
#1
Macro debates – John
Cochrane
Macro Debates and the Relevance of Intellectual
History – Krugman
/ NYT
Cochrane's thoughts on the recession and
recovery – Noahpinion
DEBATE
#2
The financial instability argument for raising
rates – mainly
macro
Stability or Sadomonetarism? – Krugman
/ NYT
Neomonetarist Delusions – Krugman
/ NYT
BIS
BUBBLE WARNING
As difficult as ABC: Austrians, the BIS and
credit – The
Economist
In the run-up to the
financial crisis, some of the most prescient warnings came from Bill White, the
economist at the Bank for International Settlements. The BIS is sounding the
alarm bells today, and once again its message is unwelcome.
On the BIS annual report, monetary policy and
the hazards of overindebtedness
– Credit
Writedowns
Taking Systemic Risk Seriously – Project
Syndicate
There are two leading
views about the world’s financial system. The first, heard mostly from
executives at leading global banks and their allies, is that the system is
safer than it has ever been… By contrast, a growing group of current and former
officials continues to express concern about current and potential future risks
in the United States, Europe, and
globally.
BRETTON-WOODS
The Bretton Woods agreements: The 70-year itch – The
Economist
Both the West and China are neglecting the institutions that help keep
the world economy upright
Bretton Woods – The
Economist
On July 22nd
1944, finance experts
who had spent the past three weeks gathered at a hotel in New Hampshire, produced two documents setting out their plan
for the post-war monetary system. In response, The Economist published this
leader article on July 29th, paying particular attention to whether the British
government should ratify the Bretton Woods Agreements.
The global monetary system: Not floating, but
flailing – The
Economist
After 150 years of
monetary experimentation, the world remains unsure how to organise global
finance
Buttonwood: Three’s a crowd – The
Economist
The instability that
stems from trilemmas
Monetary policy with quantitative controls – voxeu.org
The Global Crisis has
raised the interest of banks in using quantitative controls, such as credit
controls. This column discusses a relatively recent historical episode of
credit controls in France. During this episode the role of interest
rates was almost eliminated. Quantitative controls effectively decreased output
and prices in the short-run. The difficulty for the Central Bank stemmed from
the fact that it had to change its instruments constantly. This historical
episode demonstrates that macroprudential tools can have substantial effects on
monetary policy.
OFF-TOPIC
Twilight of the Pizza Barons – Businessweek
Tom Monaghan started
Domino’s. Mike Ilitch started Little Caesers. Both became billionaires, both
live in Detroit, both are now over 75. They’ve made very
different decisions about how to spend their fortunes.
PayPal sold to eBay in
the summer of 2002 and the PayPal team members went on to found some of the
most important startups -- and make some of the most strategic investments --
of all time.
Re-Release of CIA
Internal History Spotlights New Details about anti-Mosaddeq Coup * U.S.
Ambassador Loy Henderson and Some CIA Officials Initially Disagreed with
Certain Premises of Coup Planners * Declassified History Implies British Ties
to the Operation, Criticizes London's Policies in Period Leading up to the
Overthrow
Spy agencies fear export of jihadi terror – FT
Islamist groups in the
Mid-East are sharing bomb-making knowhow
Facebook's Social Experiment – WSJ
Few of Facebook’s 1.3
billion users know much about the social network’s Data Science team, but that
has changed after reports have come out about a psychological study conducted
on nearly 700,000 unwitting users.
Stash Pad – New
York Magazine
The New York real-estate market is now the premier
destination for wealthy foreigners with rubles, yuan, and dollars to hide.
10 Tricks to Appear Smart During Meetings – Medium
The cold war relics three photographers are
documenting before they disappear – Wired
FINNISH
Teosto
verottaa tyhjiä DVD-levyjä pahemmin kuin valtio Koskenkorvaa – Afterdawn