Previously
on MoreLiver’s:
W/E: Weekly Support (updated)
Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter
EUROPE
German dominance has
allowed the euro to achieve a number of design objectives, and this may continue
if Germany does not shirk its responsibilities. Germany’s resilience and dominant size within the EU
may explain its ‘muddling through’ approach to the Eurozone crisis. Greater
mobility of labour and lower mobility of under-regulated capital may be the costly
‘second best’ adjustment until the arrival of more mature Eurozone
institutions.
ITALY
Renzi rebutted
criticism of his nation’s debt levels by pointing out Germany’s decision a decade ago to flout the EU’s
stability and growth pact.
Renzi’s Promise – Project
Syndicate
Fabrizio Tassinari: It
is the government’s performance in the six-month EU presidency that matters
most to Italy and to Europe.
UNITED
KINGDOM
David Cameron needs to
send forth the best he has
BOE’s Cunliffe: Monetary Policy Last Line of Defense
on Financial Stability – WSJ
FRANCE
/ IMF
IMF Executive Board
Concludes 2014 Article IV Consultation - IMF
Selected Issues Country
Report No. 14/183 – IMF
2014 Article IV
Consultation Country Report No. 14/182 – IMF
IMF Survey: Policies
On the Right Track – IMF
SWEDEN
Repo rate cut by half
a percentage point to 0.25 per cent – Riksbank
Riksbank Targets
Deflation With Bigger-Than-Estimated Cut – BB
Economists React:
Riksbank Rate Cut Catches Economists Off Guard – WSJ
Riksbanken moves close
to the ZLB – Market
Monetarist
Riksbank Returns to
Crisis-Level Rates to Prevent Deflation – BB
Riksbank Risks Bubbles
As It Duels The ECB – WSJ
BANKS
Europe's bank stress tests were unreliable, EU
auditors say – Euractiv
The European Union’s
banking supervisor did not have the staff or powers to successfully stress-test
EU banks’ resilience to financial shocks, according to a European Court of
Auditors’ report published 2 July.
Garnry: 'Horrible' time for European banks – TradingFloor
It's been a terrible
week for BNP Paribas, hit by a record fine of almost USD nine billion after being
found guilty of evading US sanctions on Iran, Sudan and other countries. The French bank also
faces a one year ban on USD transactions. BNP Paribas is not the only European
bank facing possible action from US prosecutors and the size of the fine sends a
chilling warning to the entire European banking sector.
EUROPEAN
CENTRAL BANK
ECB’s Coeure Urges Regulatory Tools to Arrest
Unwarranted Rise in Assest Values – WSJ
BEFORE
ECB: talk but no
action – Reuters
Five Questions for
Mario Draghi as Plan Puzzles Investors – BB
ECB Watchers in the
Dark Look to Draghi for Illumination – BB
AFTER
Introductory statement
to the press conference – ECB
ECB adjusts meeting
schedule and to publish minutes – ECB
Further details on
TLTRO – ECB
ECB Live: QE Or Not
QE, That Is The Question – WSJ
Live blog: Mario
Draghi’s monthly ECB press conference – FT
German Bonds Set for
Longest Run of Declines in Month After ECB – BB
Policy is Unchanged,
but Draghi is Transforming the ECB – Marc
to Market
The ECB reduces number
of meetings and provides TLTRO details – Danske
Bank
Draghi Uses Lull to
Revamp Meeting Schedule – WSJ
5 Takeaways From the
ECB’s July Meeting – WSJ
TLTRO: how well has
the ECB targeted its loans? – FT
Bundesbank Chief
Supports ECB’s Bold Measures – WSJ
Draghi is Transforming
ECB and it will Look more like the Fed – Marc
to Market
MACRO
NUMBERS
Volume of retail trade
stable in euro area – Eurostat
Euro zone retail sales
stagnate in May – Reuters
Euroland: Weak
euro-area retail sales but private consumption – Danske
Bank
Euro-Area PMI Surveys
Signal Growth Doubled in Second Quarter – BB
Euro zone business
growth slows in June as French activity drops – Reuters
U.K. Services Employment Rises at Record Pace as Demand Jumps – BB
Ireland: PMIs hitting highs and budget deficit is dropping – Danske
Bank
UNITED STATES
FEDERAL
RESERVE
Transcript of Yellen
and Lagarde Comments at IMF Event – WSJ
Yellen: Monetary
Policy and Financial Stability – The
Big Picture
Yellen Says Financial
Instability Shouldn’t Prompt Rate Change – BB
Yellen drives wedge
between monetary policy, financial bubbles – Reuters
Janet Yellen Signals
She Won’t Raise Rates to Fight Bubbles – NYT
Optimal crises – The
Economist
Yellen has long said
there might be times when monetary policy could be used to counteract financial
instability. But in a speech before the IMF today, she erected such a high bar
to its use that is seems unlikely ever to happen: the "potential cost ...
is likely to be too great ... at least most of the time." The unstated
logical conclusion is that there is some optimal exposure to crisis.
JUNE
EMPLOYMENT REPORT
Live Blog: Everything
You Need to Know About the Jobs Report – WSJ
June Jobs Report – Reuters
June Employment
Report: 288,000 Jobs, 6.1% Unemployment Rate – Calculated
Risk
Payrolls Surge 288K,
Above Expectations, Unemployment Tumbles To 6.1% - ZH
U.S. jobs data seen reinforcing strong growth outlook – Reuters
Strong job gains in
June but wage growth remains subdued – Danske
Bank
U.S. Employment Situation – June 2014 – Global
Macro Monitor
Highlights from the
June U.S. Jobs Report – WSJ
Economists React to Payrolls
of 288K: “Early Fireworks” – WSJ
288K New Jobs,
Unemployment Rate Drops to 6.1% - dshort
Digging Deeper Into
the Report – dshort
Full-Time Jobs -500K,
Part-Time Jobs +800K, Most Since 1993 – ZH
Economy adds 288k
jobs, jobless rate falls to 6.1 percent – WaPo
Is this the jobs
recovery we’ve been looking for? – WaPo
Comments on Employment
Report – Calculated
Risk
June Employment Report
– Tim
Duy’s Fed Watch
Robust June Hiring
Moves Forward Likely Fed Rate Hike, JPM Says – WSJ
Why Have Economists
Been Wrong About Falling Unemployment Rates? – WSJ
OTHER MACRO NUMBERS
U.S. trade deficit narrows as exports hit record high – Reuters
ISM Services Weaker
Than Expected – Bespoke
ASIA
Aussie Dollar Tumbles As Stevens Says
"Overvalued"; Claims "Not Jawboning" – ZH
Japanese Real Wages Tumble Most Since Lehman – ZH
OTHER
Daily Macro – WSJ
The morning’s big news
was a larger-than-expected Swedish rate cut as its central bank worries about
incipient deflation notwithstanding a booming property market. This might also
be seen as a response to the ECB’s raft of monetary measures last month –
including introducing negative rates for bank deposits with the ECB. The ECB’s
own meeting on Thursday is expected to pass quietly. No new policies are likely
to be launched until the most-recent ones are given time to work – though
Draghi will undoubtedly play up the significance of those moves, hoping to
drive the still strong euro down a little. Finally, the latest U.S. nonfarm payrolls release out a day early
thanks to Friday’s public holiday will be scoured for signs of how Federal
Reserve policy might pan out.
Daily Central Banks – WSJ
Da Costa’s Take: Money
Depot: Fed Deep in the Tool-Building Business * Fed’s Yellen Leery of Using
Rates to Deal With Financial Risk * Sweden’s Central Bank Makes Large Cut to Main
Interest Rate * BOE’s Haldane Says Little Evidence U.K. Is Overheating * Five
Questions Ahead of the ECB’s July Meeting
Jump in US Jobs, Gooses Yields and Lifts Dollar – Marc
to Market
Central Bankers Appear to Line Up their
Defenses – WSJ
At the beginning of
the week the Bank for International Settlements in Basel warned loudly of the risks of moving “too
slowly and too late” to raise interest rates back toward normal. As it did
before the global financial crisis, the BIS emphasized the need to act early to
avoid the booms-and-busts in financial markets and offered all sorts of reasons
why today’s very low inflation shouldn’t be the primary concern of central
bankers. Central bankers appear to have agreed on a common response.
Nomura’s Richard Koo on Balance Sheet
Recessions and the QE Trap – CFA
Institute
Monetary reserves have
not led to an increase in private sector spending because the big economies are
struggling through balance sheet recessions, and are at risk of getting stuck in
a QE trap.
EMEA Weekly, Week 28 – Danske
Bank
FINNISH
Italian
pääministeri: Eurooppa näyttää väsyneeltä – TalSa
Italian pääministeri Matteo Renzi kannattaa
budjettikurista joustamista, jotta talous saataisiin kasvuun. Hän muistutti
eilen Euroopan parlamentissa, että tiukkaa linjaa vaatinut Saksa sai rikkoa
vuosikymmenen sitten sääntöjä elvytyksen vuoksi.
Tuhdit
eväät vaikuttamiseen parlamentissa – Olli
Rehn / US
Italian
puheenjohtajuus EU:ssa alkanut – Sirpa
Abdallah / US
Hyvä
meppi on lobbari – Kaiku
Ovatko
Suomen talouden ongelmat rakenteellisia? – Akateeminen talousblogi
Suomalaiset
haluavat ensin oman talouden kuntoon ja vasta sitten auttaa muita – Verkkouutiset
800
euron vuotuinen tulonsiirto lapsiperheiltä kehitysapuun – Professorin
ajatuksia
Säännöt
ne vasta auttavat lasta – Hannu
Visti