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EUROPE
The
Commission’s power of initiative: the CJEU sets important constraints – Steve
Peers
John
Plender: Europe’s debtor paradise will end in tears – FT
Nasty
surprises lurk for those who have embraced negative yields
Finland:
No alternatives to voting for change – Nordea
Finland
will vote on Sunday. While the results will not lead to a meltdown in Finnish
bond markets, the elections will have longer-term consequences for markets. A
Centre-led coalition will look quite different depending on which other parties
are joining. While there are no real alternatives to voting for big changes in
the Finnish economy, the nature of those changes is still in the air.
Peripheral
EU Bond Risk Surges As Grexit Contagion Spreads – ZH
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Results of
the April 2015 euro area bank lending survey – ECB
Euro zone
banks see loan demand rising after ECB money printing – Reuters
Pace of ECB
bond buying slows as QE enters second month – Reuters
Will Mario
Draghi Leave the ECB Without Ever Raising Rates? – BB
German
Yields Fall to Records as Moody’s Warns on Bond Scarcity – BB
Moody’s
Adds to Doubts Over Sourcing Bonds for Eurozone QE – WSJ
5 Points to
Watch in the ECB’s April Press Conference – WSJ
Mads
Koefoed: Talk of early QE end surfaces – TF
Talk of an
ECB Taper? Forget It for Now – WSJ
Juhani
Huopainen: Where to find the bonds to buy? – TF
MACRO NUMBERS
Business
investment rate stable at 21.9% in the euro area – Eurostat
Household
saving rate up to 13.0% in the euro area – Eurostat
Rise in
Eurozone Savings Rate Sounds Deflation Alarm – WSJ
Industrial
production up by 1.1% in euro area – Eurostat
UNITED STATES
MACRO NUMBERS
Retail
Sales increased 0.9% in March – Bill
Mc Bride
Retail
Sales Misses For 4th Month In A Row – ZH
Stocks
Slide, Dollar, & Bond Yields Tumble After Retail Sales Miss – ZH
Retail
sales rebound, post largest gain in a year – Reuters
Weak Retail
Sales Maybe Just Strong Enough – WSJ
Rebound in
retail sales not as strong as expected – Danske
Bank
REGULARS
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Hilsenrath’s
Take: Look For Signs of a U.S. Consumer Spending Rebound in Retail Data * Fed
Taking Applications for Community Advisory Council * Fed Seeks Comment on
Technical Details of Interest on Reserves Power * New York Fed Still Searching
for Cause of Oct. 15′s Wild Treasury Volatility * As Interest Benchmarks Go
Negative, Banks May Have to Pay
Daily
Macro – WSJ
We’ve had
more positive signs that the European Central Bank’s aggressive new
“quantitative easing” bond-buying program is having some effect. Not only are
banks starting to ease their lending standards, but industrial production
appears to be accelerating. A key question will be whether the ECB starts to
signal its satisfaction with this pickup and whether that affects the intended
longevity of its program, which is currently programmed at $60 billion-per-month
“at least” until September next year. That in turn will impact how other
central banks respond.
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
Global
Daily – ABN AMRO
Commodity
outlook dampened by oil and precious metals in near term…but we expect CRB
index to firm later in the year on stronger global demand * Dollar has a strong
start to the week and further gains are expected this week
Euro
rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Positive US
news: US retail sales to rebound * Chinese GDP growth to new low, markets to
wake up? * With EUR 61.7bn bought so far, the ECB’s PSPP continues to be on
target * The SNB not seen in the FX market yet
Morning
Markets – TF
The key
data today is US retail sales. This has been weak for the last two-to-three
months and it needs to pick up if traders are to believe in this strong US
recovery narrative.
Daily FX
Comment – Marc
to Market
Dollar
Underpinned Ahead of Retail Sales
Daily
Shot – TF
Despite
that massive injection of QE cash into the system, USDJPY continues to trade
flat. Is QE fatigue starting to dominate the markets?
Daily
Press Summary – Open
Europe
Labour
manifesto pledges reform of EU budget, CAP and immigration rules * Greek
government denies reports it is considering default or early elections * Chief
EU-US free-trade deal negotiator complains about lack of support from European
leaders * ECB suggests asset purchases have helped boost lending to real
economy * Gazprom warns Europe may face higher gas prices * Dutch member of EU
Court of Auditors: Incomprehensible that MEPs keep signing off on EU accounts *
Wilders: Islam does not belong in Germany *
US Open – ZH
Futures
Slump As Asian Stock Bubble Calls A Timeout
FX
Update – TF
USDJPY was
toppled from a fresh attempt to break higher yesterday on comments from an Abe
advisor, but the USD should pick up the pace again across the board if we get a
strong March US Retail Sales report.
From the
Floor – TF
Today's
Asian session saw a significant uptick in the Singaporean dollar, but the yen
was the real story as a close adviser to Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe
told press that he would like to see USDJPY at 1.05.
Martin
Sandbu’s Free Lunch
– FT
China
shocker - How surprised should we be by the trade collapse?
IMF WEO REPORT
IMF
World Economic Outlook (WEO), April 2015 – IMF
Uneven
Growth: Short- and Long-Term Factors
Global
Financial Stability Report (GFSR) – IMF
Navigating
Monetary Policy Challenges and Managing Risks
Fiscal
Monitor (FM) – IMF
Now Is the
Time: Fiscal Policies for Sustainable Growth
Olivier
Blanchard: Four Forces Facing the Global Economy – iMFdirect
Five key
takeaways from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook – FT
Supply or
Demand? The IMF Breaks Down the Collapse of Oil Prices – WSJ
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
EKP:n ostot painavat korkoja | USA:n vähittäismyyntiluvut viitteitä kevään
elpymistahdista | Kreikka uhkaa jättää maksamatta touko- ja kesäkuun lainaerät
IMF:lle
IMF pitää EKP:n ostoista kuplavaarasta huolimatta – Suomen
Uutiset
Kreikka valmistautuu velkojen laiminlyönteihin – Henri
Myllyniemi / US
Vähittäiskauppa helmik. -0.7% YoY – Tilastokeskus