Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter
EUROPE
Ben
Bernanke: Germany's trade surplus is a problem – Brookings
Eleven
Negative Surprises in the Euro Area – PIIE
Britain
and the European Union: The Brexit dilemma – The
Economist
In the
longer term, Britain’s discomfort with the EU may turn out to be a bigger risk
than Greece’s
Neither
party in Angela Merkel’s grand coalition really wants to be there
GREECE
Greece draws up drachma plans, prepares to
miss IMF payment – The
Telegraph
Greece Brandishes Drachma, Threatens Euro
Exit – Wolf
Street
Greece says ready to make IMF payment on
April 9 – Reuters
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
What
De-Leveraging? ECB QE To Drive $600 Billion in New Issuance – ZH
Data on QE
show asymmetrical purchase patterns; negative rates have a role in it – Sober Look
ECB Hits
March Bond Purchase Target – WSJ
Why
ECB's March Purchase Of €11 Billion In German Treasurys Will Be A Problem – ZH
ECB
Quantitative Easing on track – Bruegel
In its
first month of purchases the ECB roughly respected its commitments in terms of
country allocation but less so in terms of market neutrality
ECB: What
could trigger a policy reversal? – Nordea
At the
moment everybody is fixated at Euro area monetary policy easing. Hopefully not
too far from now we should start looking at the indicators essential for the
first tightening move. The real economy will give us the first signs of policy
reversal. Inflation safely above zero, long term inflation expectations
steadily close to 2 % and a broad based recovery in the real economy should be
in place before we will see the ECB scale back unconventional measures and
ultimately hike rates.
UNITED STATES
What
Seems to Be Holding Back Labor Productivity Growth, and Why It Matters – FED
Yellen
shoots for ‘equilibrium’ interest rates – FT
Bankers
Want Fed To Reveal Method Behind What They Say Is Madness – WSJ
5 Things
to Watch in the Fed’s March Minutes – WSJ
April
Macro Update: Weak Month, But The Trend Is Positive – The
Fat Pitch
MARCH EMPLOYMENT REPORT
How March’s
Jobs Report Could Affect Rate Liftoff – WSJ
Jobs
Report: Is Bad News Bad News Again? – WSJ
March
Payrolls Huge Miss: +126K, Worst Since December 2013 – ZH
Bad News Is
Bad News: Stocks Down, Bonds Up, Carry Trades Unwind – ZH
Wage Growth
In America Has Never Been Higher... For Your Boss – ZH
Goldman: "The
Right Policy Would Be To Put Hikes On Hold For Now" – ZH
Poor US
Jobs Report Sends Dollar Reeling – Marc
to Market
U.S.
Employment Situation – March 2015 – Global
Macro Monitor
March Jobs
Report – The Numbers – WSJ
Whether
Jobs Weakness Will Continue or Prove an Aberration – WSJ
Why Are
Wages Growing Slowly Despite McDonald’s, Wal-Mart Raises? – WSJ
The March
Jobs Report in 11 Charts – WSJ
Today's NFP
Miss Means Little For Equities and The Economy – The
Fat Pitch
March
Employment Report: 126,000 Jobs, 5.5% Unemployment Rate – Calculated
Risk
Employment
Report Comments and Graphs – Calculated
Risk
Air Pocket
– Tim
Duy
Be Nervous
(But Not Panicked) About The March Jobs Report – FiveThirtyEight
Report a
Wake-Up Call About the Impact of the Strong Dollar – BB
Job growth
falls back after a run of strong months – Danske
Bank
REGULARS
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Hannon’s
Take: The Great Oil Price Easing * Fed’s Dudley Says Rate-Rise Timing Uncertain
* Canadian Firms Paring Investment, Hiring Plans Amid Tepid Sales Outlook * In
Surprise Move, Australia Holds Rates * India’s Central Bank Leaves Key Lending
Rate Unchanged
Daily
Macro – WSJ
We’ve been
among those suggesting that the pattern of monetary policy-easing maneuvers
around the world risks stoking a stealth currency war. So, it was sobering to
see central banks defy that trend and keep investors on their toes Tuesday. Whereas
the Reserve Banks of both Australia and India had ample excuse to cut rates
today, especially because the U.S. dollar has weakened on the back of soft U.S. economic data, neither took the
bait.
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
Euro
rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Weak
payrolls, Greek T-bill auction gathering interest this week, Norwegian
inflation ahead
Daily FX
Comment – Marc to
Market
Dollar
Comes Back Bid
Morning
Markets – TF
Daily
Shot – TF
Chinese
stocks continue to rally, also REIT showed an impressive total return over the
last year. But not all national economies are doing well. While Spain is picking up, Brazil and Russia are facing challenges.
US Open – ZH
Back From Holiday, European Stocks Celebrate
Atrocious US Jobs Data, Jump Over 1%
FX
Update – TF
The USD
looks relatively resilient, given the weak employment report from Friday, but
can’t seem to build a convincing direction move either way and remains in
tactical limbo. Overnight, the RBA shocked by not easing rates, which most were
expecting, but the AUD upside may prove limited.
From the
Floor – TF
The Reserve
Bank of Australia may have pulled a hawk from its hat
today, but the surprise was not enough to make AUDUSD jump too far out of its
seat.
OTHER
Capital
control measures: A new dataset – vox
A renewed
interest in capital controls following the Great Recession requires a serious
empirical reconsideration of their effectiveness as policy instruments. This
column introduces a new dataset that features unprecedented levels of
disaggregation between asset categories, and distinguishes transactions between
residents and non-residents. The ensuing debate should take note.
Eurozone
interbank lending market during the Global and EZ crises – vox
The Global
Crisis and subsequent sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone severely distressed
wholesale funding markets. This column argues that in the Eurozone, interbank
funding conditions tightened particularly for cross-border borrowing. Moreover,
during the worst moments of the crisis, the same borrower bank could pay
different prices (up to 100 basis points) for identical loans during the same
day. Non-standard monetary policy measures help mitigate these liquidity
disruptions, with stronger effects in countries under distress.
Jobs
Find Workers, Not The Other Way Around, SF Fed Paper Finds – WSJ
Oil
Travails – Marc to Market
Energy
Monitor April – Lower oil price, recovery in late 2015 – ABN AMRO
Threat of
expanding oil supply, increasing risk of even lower oil prices * Impact of low
oil prices on oil production and demand will become visible in second half of 2015
* Search for new equilibrium will be accompanied by heightened volatility and
large price swings
Misinterpretations
of New Data on International Reserves – PIIE
World
Economic Outlook: Uneven Growth: Short- and Long-Term Factors – IMF
Chapter 3. Where
Are We Headed? Perspectives on Potential Output * Chapter 4. Private Investment:
What's the Holdup?
Bernanke:
Should monetary policy take into account risks to financial stability? – Brookings
As
expected, Ben is with Lars – Scott Sumner
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Pettymys vaihtuu Fed-yliherkkyydeksi | Tänään julkistetaan
Suomen ulkomaankaupan luvut | Keskuspankit huomion keskipisteenä
Euro kuohuttaa Puolan presidentinvaaleissa – Suomen
Uutiset
Suomen Perustan raportti vähättelee somalien ja irakilaisten
kustannuksia – Professorin
ajatuksia
Suomi, syntyvyys ja maahanmuutto – maahanmuutto ei
ratkaise ikärakenteen tuomia ongelmia - Tyhmyri
Pertti Haaparanta: Ruotsi on elvyttänyt – Akateemin talousblogi
Roger Wessman: Helmikuussa vienti palautui vain vaisusti
– Marketnoze
Jan Hurri: Eihän puhuta Kreikasta ennen vaaleja, eihän
– Talsa
Kreikan kriisi on Suomen vaalitaistoa käyville poliitikoille
epämieluisa puheenaihe. Kiusallista aihetta ei voi kuitenkaan vältellä kuin
korkeintaan juuri ja juuri vaalien yli. Seuraava hallitus saa ensi töikseen
eteensä vaikean valinnan: Kreikan uusi rahoituspaketti, velka-armahdus tai
euron osittainen hajoaminen.
Muutosvastarintaa vai jotain muuta? – Hannu
Visti
Johtaisiko Kreikan konkurssi euroeroon ja olisiko tämä katastrofi
Kreikalle? – Eurothinktank