Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter
EUROPE
Euro
Debate Ignites in East EU in Face of Public Skepticism – BB
While
Greece may have one foot out the door, policy makers in the European Union’s
east are reopening the debate about whether to join the euro area after years
of shunning the currency during the global financial crisis.
New
eurogroup president: Dijsselbloem vs de Guindos – FT
Most
believe it will come down to a political showdown between the EU’s two main pan-European
party groups, the centre-right European People’s Party and the centre-left
Party of European Socialists.
Economic
Surveys: France 2015
– OECD
GREECE
Athens
threatens IMF default if Eurozone won't release funds – TF
Samaras
Says He’d Join Alliance to Keep Greece in Euro – BB
Euro zone,
Athens closer to Greek reform list, more work needed: euro zone official – Reuters
ECB Said to
Raise ELA Limit for Greek Banks by 700 Million Euros – BB
Is Merkel
facing a Bundestag rebellion on Greece? – Open
Europe
BofAML: D-Day
On April 9, Default Within 30 Days Of Missed Payment – ZH
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Buiter
on why the ECB as a whole can’t go bust – FT
The point,
fundamentally, is that the ECB can always issue cash to pay off its euro-denominated
liabilities, regardless of whether anyone wants the currency or not.
Euro
Rates Watch: Solving the securities lending puzzle – ABN AMRO
Europe’s
Secret Demands Make Banks a Guessing Game for Investors – BB
The secrecy
surrounding Europe’s new capital targets is unsettling some investors and
analysts who say they’re being kept in the dark about the health of the
region’s banks.
Germany
Leads Senior Bank Debt Revamp to Ease Bail-In – BB
The EU put
senior bondholders in line for losses when banks fail, and Germany is leading
the drive to make them actually take the hit should the time come.
UNITED STATES
The
Fed’s grudging embrace of inflation targeting, part 2 – FT
The
maddening conundrum-redux conundrum – FT
How would
the Fed react if long-term US Treasury rates fail to rise after it has started
lifting policy rates?
Summers
and Bernanke are having the most important blog fight ever – WaPo
Yellen
Opening Remarks At Fed Conference — Live Feed – ZH
Yellen:
Economic Inequality Long An Interest Of The Fed – WSJ
ASIA
Japan
Watch – Will the BOJ meet its inflation target? – ABN AMRO
We expect
further monetary easing in July, with the risk that it could be earlier, and
core inflation (ex food) to reach 1.0% in FY 2015.
REGULARS
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Hilsenrath’s
Take: Q2 Central Bank Outlook Points to Cuts in Asia, Uncertainty in U.S. * Global
Central Banking in 2015: A Second-Quarter Update for 25 Economies * Fed’s
Lockhart Expects Economy to Pick Up in Second Quarter * Bank of Japan Dissenter
Wants to Disarm Monetary ‘Bazooka’ * Momentum Builds to Label Chinese Yuan a
Reserve Currency
Daily
Macro – WSJ
Is this a
temporary blip caused by cold weather as most believe, or more a protracted slowdown?
And will it cause the Fed to pause in its move to increase rates?
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
Global
Daily: Eurozone overtaking the US? – ABN AMRO
The
eurozone manufacturing PMI rose above the ISM index in March * We expect
eurozone growth surprises, but ISM might be understating strength of US economy * Greece’s new reform plan relies on
optimistic assumptions about tax collection
Eye-Opener – Nordea
New yield
lows * Downside risks to US non-farm payrolls, potential to trigger rebound in
yields * EUR/USD may react more strongly to positive NFP surprise than vice
versa
Daily FX
Comment – Marc
to Market
Dollar Sets
Back After Testing Top of Range
Daily
Shot – TF
Lately
several emerging economies disappointed and while also the US economic indicators
are not positive and recovery has been the slowest in recent history, US is yet
leading global growth now.
Daily
Press Summary – Open
Europe
Questions
grow around Greece’s ability to pay IMF despite submitting improved reform list
* French Economy Minister: I believe in two-speed or multi-speed Europe * Doubts
remain over EU Commission’s flagship investment fund
US Open – ZH
Futures,
Dollar Drift Lower, Oil Slides Ahead Of "Whisper Miss" Payrolls
FX
Update – TF
The USD
rally was tripped up yesterday by weak US data, and the greenback may face a
further consolidation if tomorrow’s payrolls don’t support. Elsewhere, AUD
weakness is profound.
OTHER
The EUR
& Reserve Managers, the Outlook for Risk Parity – Global
Macro Trading
FX
Convictions – Maintaining our US dollar long views – ABN AMRO
Since our
latest report on 10 March, we have kept in place our long US dollar views
versus the euro, the yen the Australian dollar and Sterling. We have also
recently added the New Zealand dollar to our conviction list of currencies that
will underperform the US dollar.
A Closer
Look: Emerging Markets – Short
Side of Long
This
time is not different, USD edition – FT
HSBC: “participants
now seem to be buying the USD not based on a change in fundamentals but instead
because they believe the rally will extend further. This is a classic mentality
associated with unsustainable moves”.
Commodity
Watch – Prices versus volatility – ABN AMRO
Over the
last decade commodity prices have rallied exponentially but also crashed
sharply. What have been the drivers behind these sharp swings and how did
commodity price volatility behave? Although there are some exceptions,
volatility tends to behave asymmetrically depending on the direction of the
price move. In general, volatility tends to rise sharply during substantial
commodity price sell-offs. However, occasionally, individual commodity price
volatility increases also happen when commodity prices rally sharply. Often
this is when price peaks are in the making as was the case for gold prices in
2011 and sugar prices in 2010.
Mr Crude
Meets Mr Minsky Round Two – Marc
to Market
At the end
of last year, we argued that the Minsky moment had come to oil. That after years of high prices and ideas
that oil prices could only go up, there was extensive leveraging in the energy
sector broadly conceived, that would have to be unwind.
Contours
of Macroeconomic Policy in the Future – iMFdirect
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Dollari saa uusia suuntaviivoja perjantaina | Yksityinen
kulutus puhaltaaa Tanskan talouteen vauhtia | Nigerian uutta presidenttiä
odottavat suuret haasteet
Jan Hurri: Saksan kanssa yhtä mieltä – tasapainosta viis
– TalSa
Saksan liittokansleri Angela Merkel muistutti viikonloppuna
Helsingissä, että Suomella ja Saksalla on euroalueen kriisissä yhteinen linja.
Niin onkin: kumpikin penää talouteen tasapainoa mutta kehuu silti suurinta
tasapainohäirikköä mallimaaksi. Tasapainosta ja muista viis, kunhan Saksan
vienti vahvistuu.
Taloudellinen katsaus, kevät 2015 – VM
Tämän vuoden kasvuksi ennustetaan 0,5 viisi prosenttia, kun
vielä keväällä 2014 ennuste oli 1,5 prosenttia. Vielä viime talvena kasvun
arvioitiin yltävän 0,9 prosenttiin. Kuluvan vuoden kasvun odotetaan vilkastuvan
ulkomaankaupan kasvun myötä. Sen sijaan kotimaan kysyntä pysyy hitaana.
Ekonomistit erimielisiä valtiovarainministeriön
ennusteesta – Suomenmaa
Rinne: Suomen tilanne ymmärretään EU:ssa – IL
Julkisen talouden suunnitelma 2016-2019 – VM
Valtioneuvosto hyväksyi julkisen talouden suunnitelman
2016–2019 – VM
Aki Kangasharju: Hallitus tuonut Suomeen Saksan
työmarkkinamallia – Nordea
Saksa onnistui parantumaan Euroopan ”sairaasta miehestä”
työreformilla. Suomessa vastustetaan Saksan mallia vetoamalla siihen, että
uudistus johtaisi sellaisten töiden lisääntymiseen, joilla ei elä.
Roope Uusitalo: Elvytä, leikkaa, elvytä… - Akateeminen talousblogi
Johannes Niemeläinen: Kaksi keynesiläistä vastaan
monetaristit – TalSa
Elvytyspolitiikalle ei ole tilaa, kun kaikki ovat nyt
monetaristeja.
PS MAAHANMUUTON
KUSTANNUSARVIO
[presentaatio pdf] Työmiehen tuumaustunti – PS
[kirja] Maahanmuutot ja Suomen julkinen talous – Suomen
Perusta
PS: Työikäisten maahanmuutosta 700 miljoonan kulut Suomelle
– Helsingin
Uutiset
Perussuomalaiset valmiita maahanmuuton rajoittamiseen
kansallisuuden mukaan – YLE
Suomen Perustalta tutkimus maahanmuuton kustannuksista – Suomen
Uutiset
Perussuomalaisten hurja laskelma maahanmuuton kustannuksista
– IL
Perussuomalaiset haluaisivat rajata maahanmuuttoa syntyperän
perusteella – MTV
Maahanmuutosta perussuomalainen laskelma – US
Kommentti: Rasisti! Somalien hyysääjä! – MTV