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EUROPE
Lobbyists in Brussels —
The social network – Politico
What the Commission’s meetings with lobbyists reveal about alliances and
rivalries in Brussels.
Finnish
competitiveness-raising policies and their discontents – Europp
UK: Back to deflation - we think this is the bottom for now – Danske
Bank
Britain’s Inflation Rate Unexpectedly Drops Back Below Zero – BB
UK inflation dips below zero – Nordea
UNITED STATES
Brainard Drops A Policy
Bomb – Tim
Duy
This is the most exciting speech I have read in forever. Not necessarily
for the content. But for the politics. Evans and Kocherlakota are no longer the
lunatic fringe. This could be a real game changer that shifts the Fed toward
the Evans view of the world, with no rate hike until mid-2016. Brainard muddied
further the already murky December waters.
OTHER
Majors & Scandies: FX forecast – Nordea
Our general story for
the global economy and central banks remains broadly intact, even though there
are some downside risks to certain data releases stemming from the earlier oil
price decline as well as from EM worries. We think the market is much too
pessimistic on the scope for rate hikes from the Bank of England and the
Federal Reserve. We leave our forecasts unchanged.
Majors & Scandies:
Central bank and rates forecasts – Nordea
We keep our forecast for the first Fed hike in December despite market
pricing putting it further off. US government bonds thus have some potential to
sell off, though a dovish Fed should cap yields not too far above the current
levels. EUR rates may rise to a lesser extent than its US equivalents but
should rise unless the ECB against our expectation increases the monthly asset
purchases. We expect more easing from the Riksbank at its October meeting,
while Norges Bank may wait for a while.
EM FX: New financial
forecasts – Nordea
EM FX has recovered roughly a quarter of its year-to-date loss in the
last three. We believe it is still too early to call the big turnaround and
keep forecasts of more weakening on a 3-month horizon. Stability in China,
stability in oil prices and getting the first Fed hike out of the way are
probably required for a longer-lasting shift in sentiment. EM FX is clearly
undervalued at the current levels, though. We have changed our forecasts for
the BRL, the ZAR and the Reserve Bank of India.
REGULARS
Morning MoneyBeat Asia – WSJ
U.S. Stocks Rise on
Rally in Health, Consumer Shares
Morning MoneyBeat Europe – WSJ
Weak Chinese Data Drags
Europe Lower
Morning MoneyBeat US – WSJ
Volatility Evaporates
From the Market
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank
Euro rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Mixed Chinese trade data, oil slips,
Fed expectations again delayed * UK CPI remains sticky around zero * Oil price
makes a nose-dive * German bunds advance
Morning Markets – TF
Asian equities fell on
Tuesday after a rout in oil prices on Monday and as mixed Chinese trade data
further dashed hopes for an escape from economic slowdown in the world's
second-biggest economy.
Daily FX Comment – Marc
Chandler
Five Drivers of Turn Around Tuesday
Daily Shot – TF
China's steeper-than-expected drop
in imports in September was an alarming trend to those who rely on exports to
the world's second-biggest economy, and market fears around a "hard
landing" in China remain elevated. But recession in China remains unlikely
due partly to monetary and fiscal stimulus.
Daily Press Summary – Open
Europe
SNP refuse to
participate in cross-party ‘In’ campaign as Lord Rose says Brexit would be “a
leap into the dark” * Politico: Cameron warned to submit final list of
renegotiation objectives by early next month * Germany to extend border
controls as Merkel coalition splits over “transit zones” for migrants * European
Commission asks Spain to amend its draft 2016 budget * ECB doesn’t need to
adopt additional easing measures, says Lithuania’s central banker * Greek
government submits to parliament first set of measures needed to unblock
bailout cash * EU calls on Russia to stop airstrikes in Syria * Chance of
left-wing coalition in Portugal appears to be increasing * EU Trade
Commissioner: I do not take my mandate from the European people * EU challenges
new Hungarian migration law * EU to lift sanctions on Belarus * Several EU
countries move to water down global bank capital rules
Brussels Playbook – Politico
EU tough on Assad —
Cameron cheat sheet
US Open – ZH
Futures Slump After
China Imports Plunge, German Sentiment Crashes, UK Enters Deflation
Frontrunning – ZH
Another outburst of
Chinese wobbles – this time inspired by unexpectedly poor import data – sparked
a risk-off sentiment shift across Asia overnight that sent regional bourses
sharply lower, battered commodity currencies and reignited interest in
safe-haven assets such as bonds. Crude oil, too, saw its recovery rally fade
away because in addition to Chinese data, Opec's latest monthly report showed
output hitting its highest level in over three years.
FINNISH
Kiinan
huonot tuontiluvut osoittavat elvytyksen tarpeen * Fedin Lockhart:
Kiina-riskien suorat vaikutukset USA:n taloudelle vähäiset * Ruotsin tänään
julkaistavat inflaatioluvut painostavat keskuspankkia lisäämään elvytystä *
Brent-öljyn hinta laski jälleen 50 dollarin alapuolelle
Ruotsi
vie, Suomi vikisee? – Sakari
Heikkinen