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EUROPE
ECB preview: No more
than soft words at this point – Nordea
We expect once again a dovish message from the ECB but no new policy
steps. Draghi will repeat that the QE programme will be fully implement and
more will be done if needed. We think that ultimately at least a QE extension
will be needed, but that will not be announced yet. A rate cut is quite
unlikely and certainly not high on the ECB’s list of policy options. At this
point, soft words will probably be enough to push bond yields and the euro
modestly lower.
Draghi's Words Mean
Little to European Markets Expecting Action – BB
Markets are readying for a cut to the European Central Bank’s deposit
rate, regardless of what its policy makers say in public.
EU Leaders Back Off
Banking Union Pledge as Juncker Presses On – BB
REGULARS
Morning MoneyBeat Asia – WSJ
U.S. Stocks Rally as
Rate-Hike Odds Fall
Morning MoneyBeat Europe – WSJ
Stocks Cheer Likelihood
of Fed Standing Still
Morning MoneyBeat US – WSJ
Fridays a Friend or Foe
of Investors?
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank
Global Daily – ABN
AMRO
ECB officials signal increasing need
for additional easing, pulling EUR/USD down from highs *
We continue to expect increase and
extension of ECB QE before year end * Fed’s Dudley says economy is slowing, and
brings forward arguments for rate hike delay
Euro rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
NY Fed Dudley did little to boost
the probability of a 2015 hike * CNY weakest in 2 weeks, US inflation to return
* US inflation will not be gone for long
Morning Markets – TF
Asian markets ended
their trading week with bravura as leading stock indices from Australia through
Japan to China all closed in positive territory. The US dollar too was in fine
fettle and registered gains against its peers while WTI crude oil broke past
the psychologically important $50/barrel barrier.
Daily Shot – TF
US consumer price inflation exceeded
expectations by a tenth of a point in September at 1.9%, driven up largely by
costs of rental housing, and a Fed rate increase would make things only worse
for wage-earners without solving the housing problem.
Daily Press Summary – Open
Europe
Open Europe poses ten
questions for the EU referendum ‘Remain’ and ‘Leave’ campaigns *
David Cameron to put EU
renegotiation proposals in writing by November * Turkey requests €3bn and
swifter Schengen visa liberalisation in return for helping EU on refugee crisis
* New poll ahead of Polish election has Law and Justice firmly in front but
short of overall majority *
Sturgeon: Brexit against
wishes of Scottish people would probably make demand for a second independence
referendum unstoppable * EU leaders scrap reference to “urgency” of completing
banking union from summit conclusions * German parliament passes new asylum
seeker rules
Brussels Playbook – Politico
EU-Turkey refugee deal —
Brexit — Elections
US Open – ZH
Buying Panic Fizzles As
Option Expiration Looms
Frontrunning – ZH
The USD stepped back from the brink
of a major failure yesterday in EURUSD and USDJPY as next week’s ECB meeting is
eyed and perhaps on the recovery of risk appetite. But US catalysts are sparse
over the next week.
Yesterday's US inflation
print came in above expectations and saw the nation's core CPI come in at an
anaemic (but not deflationary!) 0.2%, month-over-month. The slight gain saw USD
buyers return to the fray, with EURUSD and USDJPY the headline pairs to watch
for continuation of the strong dollar trend.
FINNISH
Suomen
talousahdinko ei näytä hellittävän * USA:n inflaatio hidastui väliaikaisesti *
Fedin Dudley toisti kantansa koronnoston puolesta * Ruotsin työllisyys
ennakoitua heikompi