Here
are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the
beginning week. This post will be updated as new material is published.
Weekly charts: still very boring Forex
Daily charts: AUDUSD and EURUSD's follow-up after Friday's surge worth following
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LAST WEEK
Tyler’s Weekly
Wrap
– ZH
NEXT WEEK
Economic
Calendar – Berenberg
Banks take spotlight as earnings season
heats up
EU
Week Ahead
– WSJ
European Summit, Safe Harbor, Syria
Weighing the Week
Ahead
– A
Dash of Insight
Despite
a full slate of data, continuing international events, Washington maneuvering,
and a possible record in Fed speeches, a new subject will command attention
this week: Will there be an earnings recession, and should we worry?
Next
week inflation data from the US, UK, China, Sweden and Denmark will hit the
markets. A negative US inflation print could push markets further away from
buying into a December Fed rate hike. Loan and trade data from China will tell
us more on how the economy did in Q3.
More
German softness is looming due to the combination of Chinese turmoil and the
Volkswagen fraud * We have postponed our call for a Fed hike to start-2016 –
markets have
pushed it to mid-2016 * The fixed income market is in ‘erase and rewind’ mode
this week –
we look for further US-euro spread widening * EUR/USD to continue range trading
the next couple of weeks
US:
retail sales and CPI inflation, some downside risks to retail sales, which have
been relatively strong in recent months * China: foreign trade data * Euro
area: how large a negative effect from the recent weakness in the emerging
markets. We believe both ZEW expectations and industrial production declined * UK:
‘noflation’ continued in September while wage growth
continued
higher in August * Sweden: Riksbank too optimistic on inflation, forced to ease
further in December.
Following
the China and EM growth scare which has developed this year, the next big
question is to what extent advanced economies will be affected. We think the
effects will remain manageable. The eurozone is a little less likely to feel
the negative effects of the EM slowdown than the US. But overall, we think the
global economy will find a better balance in the quarters ahead.
Euro rates update
– Nordea
Dollar
Struggles; More Losses Likely Before Better Demand is Found
Why
hasn't the EUR weakened, despite recent risk-on sentiment in global markets? We
think one driving force is a change in investor behaviour with regard to FX
hedging. How long will it last?