Here
are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the
beginning week. Last week’s ‘Weekly Support’ is here.
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LAST WEEK
Another
Day, Another Melt-Up In Stocks As Gold Hits 10-Month Lows
World Markets
Weekend Update: The rally resumes – dshort
NEXT WEEK
Economic
Calendar – Berenberg
Hawkish
Fed a potential speed bump for stock bulls
Weighing the Week
Ahead
– Jeff Miller
The
post-election market run has been accompanied by improving economic data and
increasing confidence. The result has the punditry asking a question that
seemed crazy in January: Will the Dow hit 20K?
Greece:
contradictions in the European position * Eurozone: ECB’s sustained presence,
Commission’s likely failure to boost fiscal spending, Italy’s referendum of
limited consequences.
US
election (check), Italian referendum (check), OPEC meeting (check), ECB meeting
(check); risk sentiment still positive (check). One big event risk left for the
year: the Fed.
Wed:
Fed meeting, a rate hike expected, question is rate path in 2017 Thu: Bank of
England meeting, no action expected
The
market is convinced that significant US fiscal stimulus will drive a stronger
USD and higher
rates
– particularly US rates * However, there is high uncertainty regarding the type
of US fiscal
stimulus
and how it will filter through to the economy * For now, we are USD bulls and
bearish
US FI * However, an inflationary US fiscal boost should over time lead to a weaker
USD – not a stronger one.
US:
Hike, then what? * LatAm: Banxico to hike while other central banks stand pat *
Canada: What the Fed does could impact the next BoC decision * Europe: Russian
doves, English hawks? * Asia: Regional central banks react post-Fed
Credit
Thrives Amid Inflation’s Inconsistencies
When
I look at the world economy, I see reasonable growth and signs of strengthening
momentum across a wide range of countries. And yet, everybody is talking about
providing stimulus.
Bears
Maul Yen and Treasuries
Dollar
Bulls Running Out of Time to See Parity vs Euro in 2016
Macro
Comment – Marc Chandler