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Monday, December 19

19th Dec - Terror in Berlin







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EUROPE
Draghi Said to Warn EU Rising Global Rates Pose Crisis Risk – BB
ECB President briefed European heads of state and government * Lack of reform and fiscal discipline seen as risks in 2017

Most migrants in Germany fail to get jobs – Politico
More than 400,000 asylum seekers were registered with employment agencies, but only 34,000 got work.

Research Sweden - The business cycle: dead or dormant? – Danske Bank

What is wrong with Italy's economy? – CER


UNITED STATES
Fed Hawk Lacker Says May Need More Than Three Hikes in 2017 – BB
Says he doesn’t know if Fed is behind the curve on inflation * Richmond Fed chief says prudent to assume some fiscal boost

Yellen To Class Of 2016: "You're Entering The Strongest Job Market In A Decade" – ZH

  TRUMP
Four Years of Living Dangerously: CEOs Brace for the Trump Era – BB
The challenge of planning for an unpredictable president * ‘We just don’t know where the bully pulpit is going’

Reflections on the Trump Presidency, One Month after the Election – Ray Dalio

View: Coming Soon: Trump vs. Yellen – BB

View: Why Trump Appointees Will Be Effective, for Better or Worse – BB

The International Barriers to Trump’s Economic Plan – Project Syndicate

Flash US Services PMI – Markit
Service PMI To Three Month Low, Job Creation Jumps, Input Costs Soar – ZH


OTHER
Calm Breaks in Pre-Holiday Market as China News Hits Oil, Stocks – BB
Crude jumps on reports China’s Navy seized a U.S. drone * Stocks dip, pull back to unchanged; Treasury yields fall

Wall Street's 2017 Forecasts Are Doomed If Trump Doesn't Follow Through On Campaign Promises – BB

Aurelija Augulyte’s FX: 2017 peek – Nordea
The eventful 2016 is coming to the end on a high note. Expectations are positive for 2017. What could go wrong? My first helicopter view on Markets next year...

Elements of Surprise: GBP - currency of the year? – Nordea
The 2016 was a disaster for the GBP, as the unexpected Brexit vote knocked it off most since the Lehman crisis. Next year it will stage a comeback, as the US and European politics predominate, BoE turns hawkish and housing market recovers.

Emerging Market Briefer – Danske Bank
A murky outlook for emerging markets in 2017

COT: Dollar neutral in run up to the FOMC – TF
The bullish dollar run was maintained in the run up to last week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting with buying of sterling and euro cancelling out the selling of yen in particular.

COT: Energy sector drives increase in bullish commodity bets – TF
An energy-sector led wave of buying took commodities to a fourth successive net-buying week with the WTI net-long at a near 2.5-year high.

Münchau: Reform the economic system now or the populists will do it – FT
The interests of the financial sector and the economy at large are different

Presentation: Four Signs of Rising Financial Stress in China – Danske Bank
Bond yields have shot higher * Equity markets have sold off again * CNH money market rates back at January-highs * Capital outflows have increased

Five Themes for 2017 – ABN AMRO
More growth * Tighter financial conditions * Another year of political risks * The return of inflation * Monetary policy divergence

Morgan Stanley Reflects On The Lessons From 2016 – ZH


REGULARS
Danske Daily – Danske Bank

Eye-Opener – Nordea
Dollar dethroned by drone * Hawkish Fed rhetoric thus ignored * Today: Ifo numbers and Yellen speech

Morning Markets – TF
The standoff between China and the US sparked by drone seizure in the South China Sea is escalating. The drone has been returned but president-elect Trump's language remains strident and markets are not liking what they see.

Euro wrap-up – Daiwa

Daily Market Comment – Marc Chandler
Dollar Mixed, but Resilient Undertone

Daily Press Summary – Open Europe

Brussels Playbook – Politico

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day – BB
Oil's future looks bright * Scoxit? * Barclays cuts customers * Markets quiet * Sub tweet

10 things you need to know before the opening bell – BI

US Open – ZH
Global Stocks, Yields, Dollar Fade In Muted Volume As Traders Close Out 2016 Books

Frontrunning – ZH

FX Update – TF
Yen crosses consolidated sharply on Friday and into the start of this week ahead of Tuesday’s Bank of Japan meeting as some traders fear that the pace of yen declines could see governor Kuroda softening his stance on the still new yield curve control policy.


FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Riksbank johdattaa joululomalle * Yellen puhuu tänään työmarkkinoiden tilasta * Usko Saksan talouden kehitykseen vahvaa * Saksan 2-vuoden korko laski ennätyksellisen alas