Here
are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the
beginning week.
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LAST WEEK
[video] Bloomberg’s What'd You Miss – BB
Equity
Funds Suffer Worst Weekly Net Outflows of the Year
NEXT WEEK
EcoWeek – BNP Paribas
Fed’s statement that inflation objective
is symmetric allows temporary overshoot
The
pre-Easter week brings inflation data from the majors and the Nordics. The
trends and drivers are pretty diverse. After Easter, Emerging Markets will get
into focus, i.a. with Chinese GDP numbers and the referendum in Turkey.
US:
CPI and Fed speeches. Europe: UK CPI and Sentix- and ZEW indices
Mounting signs that the global business
cycle is peaking * We expect a pause in the equity bull market and that risk
factors move back to the fore * We still expect the bond bear market is over for
now * Fading reflation supportive for the USD. We expect short-term USD
strength but weakening longer term * Positive start to Trump-Xi meeting - but
differences on trade will come in to focus in H2
Canada:
A serially disappointed Bank of Canada * US: A not so good Friday * Europe: Is
UK core inflation still on the up and up? * LatAm: Accelerated easing in
Brazil? * Asia: China’s reflation red herring
Bond
Yields Will Fall When the Equity Bubble Bursts
The
US Fed has started talking about its
exit strategy again. Perhaps it does not need to reduce its Treasury holdings
by much * Global economic conditions remain firm, though some data disappoints
* Chinese FX reserves stable in March, suggesting improved efficiency of
capital flows or less pressure to move money out of the country
Speculative
Positioning –
Marc
Chandler
Shift
in Gross Speculative Positioning Reveals Changing Sentiment
FX Outlook – Marc
Chandler
Dollar
Recovery Can Continue, while the 10-year Yield is Set to Rise
Macro Comment – Marc Chandler
Weekly Summary – Urban
Carmel
US
indices made their all-time high in early March; aside from the Nasdaq, which
made new highs this week, these indices have since moved sideways. SPX has
alternated up and down 5 weeks in a row, producing little net gain. Seasonality
is particularly strong in April, so a fuller retest of the March highs might
still be ahead this month. And indications that 2017 will be a good year for
equities continue to add up. But there is a notable set up in place for the
first correction since November to trigger. This week is likely to be pivotal.