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EUROPE
Eurozone: Politics
in motion, weaker growth momentum – ING
With
Merkel throwing in the towel and the Italian government still not yielding to
the European Commission's budget pleas, Eurozone governance is becoming
increasingly hard. And the slowing growth momentum won't help either
Flagging growth amid rising political headwinds – Danske Bank
Growth weakness broadens out to service sector * ECB driven by strong political will to end QE by year-end * Italy’s budget fight with the EU intensified
Euro area
unconventional monetary policy and bank resilience – BIS
The
results suggest that, above and away from the zero-lower bound, looser interest
rate policy tends to weaken our measure of euro area banks' loss-absorbing
buffers.
GERMANY
Ashoka Mody: Angela
Merkel’s Tragedy
– Project
Syndicate
History
dealt German Chancellor Angela Merkel massive challenges: a series of eurozone
crises that drove wedges between Europeans; social fragmentation fueled by
economic tensions; and the largest migration wave since World War II. Rather
than resolve them, however, she chose merely to manage them.
The curbs on Angela Merkel will also bind her successor’s hands – FT
Her
caution gave birth to the German verb ‘merkeln’, meaning ‘to hold off on a
decision’
Merkel rival tries
for comeback as CDU leader – FT
Friedrich
Merz would change the party’s direction with his strong views on immigration
Pondering a
post-Merkel Europe –
Reuters
UNITED STATES
Macro Update: New
Employment Among Highest Since 2000 – Fat
Pitch
The
macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On
balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely.
US: What now for the President’s plan? – ING
The
US economy remains very strong, but the prospect of additional fiscal stimulus
will be limited if the Democrats win control of the House of Representatives
curtailing the President's legislative agenda, with the risk that he steps up
attacks on trade partners
OCTOBER PAYROLLS
U.S. Payrolls Rise
More Than Forecast as Wage Gains Hit 3.1% - BB
Unemployment
rate holds at 3.7%, lowest level since 1969 * Data reinforce outlook for
gradual Fed interest-rate hikes
US wages grow at
fastest pace since 2009 – FT
Trump
hails ‘incredible’ 250,000 jobs gains in October in final report before
election
Just How Good Is
the October Job Market? Here’s How It Compares – WSJ
The U.S. Jobs
Report Is Almost Too Good – BB
The
largest economy charges ahead while the rest of the world stumbles. That
disconnect is dangerous.
El-Erian: 7
Takeaways From the U.S. Jobs Report – BB
The
strong performance, along with more business investment and fiscal stimulus,
will turbocharge the economy.
US Labour Market
comment: Strong job report – Nordea
The
US labour market continues to strengthen and job gains at 250k stronger than
expected. Report show no signs of any slowdown in the US economy. Wage growth
continues to edge up and set the stage for a fourth rate hike this year in
December.
FEDERAL RESERVE
Federal Reserve preview: Sticking to the script – ING
While
no longer described as 'accommodative', monetary policy is far from
restrictive. A strong domestic story means the Federal Reserve will continue to
signal “gradual” rate hikes ahead, setting us up for a December move and then
three more hikes in 2019
Fed preview: Setting
the stage for a December hike – Nordea
Next
week’s FOMC meeting will leave rates unchanged before another hike in December.
The statement will be closely watched for signs of sensitivity to the decline
in the stock market. Changes to the communication are set to be modest however.
ELECTIONS
Gridlock in
Washington and the markets – Pictet
Political
gridlock has been good news for US stocks in the past, but Tuesday’s midterm
elections come at a time of rising doubts about market prospects.
Five Things to
Watch on Election Day
– BB
From
women candidates to weed legalization, the midterms will have plenty of
intriguing subplots.
US mid-term
elections: Feeling Blue? – ING
The
mid-term elections are less than a week away and opinion polls continue to
suggest the Republicans are under pressure. The loss of Congressional control
would make life increasingly difficult for President Trump and have major
implications for policy. Here we revisit the possible election scenarios and
assess their market implications
OTHER
Monthly Executive
Briefing: The return of volatility – Danske
Bank
Italian woes continue to linger in the background with further EU-Italy stand-off ahead * Brexit negotiations failed to reach a breakthrough * The US-China trade war is on hold for now but remains unresolved * Global risk sentiment took a hit from a combination of political risks and fears of the business cycle ‘rolling over’
Italian woes continue to linger in the background with further EU-Italy stand-off ahead * Brexit negotiations failed to reach a breakthrough * The US-China trade war is on hold for now but remains unresolved * Global risk sentiment took a hit from a combination of political risks and fears of the business cycle ‘rolling over’
The myth of monetary sovereignty – Frances Coppola
CHINA
Trump Says He Thinks U.S. Will Reach Trade Deal With China – BB
President
has asked key officials to start drafting deal terms * Markets rise on
prospects of talks to defuse trade war
Trump Risks
Backlash in Zeal for Deal to End China Trade War – BB
Lighthizer
said to be opposed to push for G20 accord * Chinese wary of Trump’s history of
backing out on agreements
China: Trade war
and geopolitics –
ING
Trade
war and geopolitical tensions continue to escalate between the US and China,
but increasing concerns around Taiwan could risk intensifying the situation
US-China Trade - 60% chance of ceasefire at Xi-Trump meeting – Danske Bank
Trump
signals he may be ready for a trade war ceasefire at the Xi-Trump meeting on 1
December.
Editorial: A New
Direction for China’s Belt and Road – BB
The
massive infrastructure development program needs a course correction.
REGULARS
EU
Open Rundown
– RANsquawk
Brussels
Edition Daily
– BB
Banks under stress
Eco
Day Europe –
BB
Trump Wants Truce, Brexit Talks, China's
Global Role
WSJ
Daily Economics
– WSJ
U.S. Jobs Numbers On Tap, Trump Signals
Progress With China
Danske
Daily
– Danske
Bank
Market cheered by US-China trade talks
Daily
Market Comment
– Marc
Chandler
Greenback is Unable to Recover Ahead of
Jobs Report
Brussels
Playbook
– Politico
Confident Italy — London’s wishful Brexit
leaking — Who’ll quit next in Germany
Five
Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day – BB
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
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