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EUROPE
Eurozone 2019: A
pessimist’s view
– ING
'Eurozone
growth could even exceed already high expectations'; that's what we wrote this
time last year. 12 months on, the piece hasn't exactly aged well. Perhaps we
should adopt a different approach this time around
Eurozone:
Diminishing expectations – ING
While
the eurozone’s third-quarter growth was negatively affected by special factors,
the rebound in the fourth quarter has so far been rather muted. So although the
ECB is still proceeding with its exit policy, the chances of a 2019 rate
increase are diminishing
Editorial: Forget
the Rest: May’s Brexit Will Cost a Fortune – BB
The
closer you look at the deal, the worse it gets.
Italy: GDP
contracts after 14 positive quarters – ING
The
0.1% quarter-on-quarter contraction was driven by soft domestic demand,
particularly investment. With little hope of a substantial turnaround anytime
soon, we are downgrading our forecast for both 2018 and 2019
Merkel's Party
Tempted by Risky Option After 18 Years of Caution – BB
Even
as the party race remains open, Merz’s gaffes mount * German voters back
Kramp-Karrenbauer, but party will decide
UNITED STATES
US Federal Reserve
hints it might turn off the auto pilot – Pictet
The
Fed has been sending dovish signals in recent days: The previous exuberantly
optimistic tone about the US growth has been pared down, as some pockets of
data have softened, notably housing. Meanwhile, there is renewed debate about
the landing zone of the current monetary tightening.
US: As good as it
gets? –
ING
The
US continues to perform strongly and wages are finally gathering pace. But
protectionism and a weakening global outlook are significant risks for 2019 and
the cumulative effects of Federal Reserve interest rate increases, fading
support from the fiscal stimulus and the stronger dollar will contribute to a
slowing in growth
OTHER
El-Erian: The
Trump-Xi Meeting Isn't Just About Economics – BB
National
security considerations and domestic politics stand in the way of a rational
resolution of the trade dispute.
A trade war truce
won't save China's economy – FT
The
country must still grapple with lacklustre credit growth.
China: Rough seas
in 2019
– ING
The
Chinese economy is set to slow down in 2019. The most likely scenario is an
escalation of the US-China trade conflict, hurting exporters, manufacturing and
logistics services. Pressure from trade and investment partners will also
intensify
REGULARS
EU
Open Rundown
– RANsquawk
Brussels
Edition Daily
– BB
Brussels
Briefing
– FT
Merz lays out his radical agenda for
Germany - the candidate for CDU leadership aims to strengthen the party by
shifting it to the right
Eco
Day Europe
– BB
Brexit Divisions, Trump Trade Hint,
China's PMI Worsens * ECB discussing Lautenschlaeger’s term extension at
watchdog * U.S. tariffs would spread pain across Asia’s tech supply chain
FirstFT
Daily Briefing –
FT
WSJ
Daily Economics –
WSJ
Upcoming Trump-Xi summit, why both sides
might want a tariff truce, signs of flexibility from the Fed, soft inflation,
and rising jobless claims.
Danske
Daily
– Danske
Bank
Daily
Market Comment
– Marc
Chandler
Brussels Playbook – Politico
G20 dysfunction — Angela stranded — Too
late for Theresa
Five
Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day – BB
Eco
Day US
– BB
Fed Unpredictability, Trade Wars 2019,
European Slowing * Fed officials are showing there are no easy answers anymore
* China’s Xi is under pressure as he prepares to dine with Trump
US
Open
– ZH
Nervous Traders Drag US Futures, World
Stocks Lower Ahead Of G-20
US
Open Rundown
– RANsquawk
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Suomesta
saadaan kolmannen vuosineljänneksen BKT:n kasvuluvut | Tänään julkaistaan
euroalueen uudet inflaatioluvut, lisäksi katseet kiinnittyvät tänään alkavaan
G20-kokoukseen | Fed on yhä jatkamassa koronnostoja, Ruotsin BKT:n kasvu
supistui