Previews on today's ECB-meeting. I will update this post later.
Live webcast of the press Q&A
2-October AFTER
Introductory statement to the press conference – ECB
EUR Soars Despite Draghi's "Weak, Fragile
Recovery" Jawboning – ZH
Draghi Not Particularly Dovish Today – ActionForex
The ECB Takeaways: Monetary Arsenal is Still on
the Table – WSJ
Draghi Sticks to Stance--Ready to Do More if
Needed – Marc
to Market
Draghi ready to consider all available
instruments – Nordea
Waiting for the cut – The
Economist
Draghi
not particularly dovish today – Danske
Bank (pdf)
There were no new
measures and no promises. The likelihood of a new LTRO has diminished.
2-October BEFORE
What to Expect From the ECB Today – WSJ
Analysts expect the
ECB to stand pat and keep its main lending rate at 0.5%, a record low, for a
fifth-straight month. Officials in recent weeks have raised the possibility of
making additional long-term loans available to banks, but most economists think
that won’t happen until later in the year.
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank (pdf)
Focus on politics
in both the US and Italy. While we will likely have to wait before anything new
happens in the US deadlock, today Italy’s prime minister is expected to win a
vote of confidence in parliament. Italian markets rallied strongly yesterday as
Silvio Berlusconi – the man who has been the main cause of trouble in Italian
politics the past years – faces a major defeat... ECB will also be in the limelight today. We do not expect a rate cut or new
measures from ECB but focus will be on signals on how high the bar is for ECB
to provide new stimulus, such as a new 3Y LTRO.
Market comment: ECB to talk LTROs – Nordea
ECB meeting with
focus on LTROs * Italian Fight Night * Market complacency to the US shut down *
VAT hike in Japan
ECB: Much to
Discuss, but Little Action – Marc to Market
30-September
ECB
Watch: Why another LTRO? – Nordea
The case for a new
LTRO will be the focal point of Wednesday's ECB meeting. Thus, this month's ECB
preview has been extended with a deeper look at the likelihood of another LTRO
ECB
Preview: Nothing but a dovish attitude – Danske
Bank (pdf)
Eurozone's
falling excess reserves - is another round of LTRO required? – Sober
Look
28-September
ECB Liquidity-Boost Urgency
Seen Fading Even on Cash Drop
– BB
The need for a new
injection of cash into the euro area’s banking system may be fading as stress
in the region eases. Of 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, 11 said
there’s no requirement for another long-term refinancing operation from the
Frankfurt-based central bank, even after excess cash in the region’s financial system
fell to the lowest level since December 2011.
ECB Preview: Still in the
action zone – ING (pdf)
Three factors are
still disturbing the ECB’s comfort zone: the Fed, higher money market rates,
and lacklustre credit growth. Words still seem to be the first line of defence
to shield the Eurozone from higher interest rates and a stronger euro. However,
the strategy of words without deeds could soon wear out. Consequently, we still
expect further ECB action in the next 6 months, with liquidity operations being
the preferred option.
Weekly Focus: Politics in the
limelight – Danske Bank (pdf)
At Wednesday’s ECB
meeting focus will be on Draghi’s comments on a possible new three-year LTRO.
Week Ahead – Nordea (pdf)
Eurozone ECB meeting
FX Outlook: No Comfort Yet for
Dollar Bulls – Marc to Market
26-September
Euro area credit contraction
continues – Danske Bank (pdf)
The monthly loan flows
show there is no turning point yet…we expect a new LTRO when excess liquidity
has declined so much that it pushes the short market rates towards the refi
rate, likely to happen late this year or early next year.
Eurozone monetary data
supports new LTRO soon – TradingFloor
August monetary data
for the euro area shows that credit contraction continues. In light of ECB
president Mario Draghi's recent promise that a new round of LTRO-loans could be
made available to banks here are some of the possible scenarios.