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Thursday, October 3

3rd Oct - EU Open



Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Roundups
News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT
Asia Morning MoneyBeat: Stocks in ‘Shutdown’ Mode – WSJ
Europe Morning MoneyBeat: Shutdown Glowers Over All – WSJ


MORNING BRIEFINGS
3 Numbers to Watch: EU retail sales, US jobs & consumer comfortTradingFloor
Eurozone retail sales, US jobless claims, and the US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index are three numbers that deserve close attention in today’s releases.

Market Preview: US shutdown continues; heavy macro calendar aheadTradingFloor
European markets are likely to open mostly flat on Thursday. Market concerns over the US partial shutdown prevailed after a White House meeting concluded without results. Meanwhile, today’s slew of economic releases in Europe and the US will be eyed.

Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)


Markets are in a waiting position for the battle on raising the debt ceiling. There are still no signs of a resolution to the government shutdown. Many Fed members will speak tonight (Williams, Lockhart, Fisher and Powell) but given the many speeches already after the September meeting, we are unlikely to get much new information.

Market comment: While we wait for CongressNordea
Draghi offers not new * Berlusconi knock-out * All is quiet in D.C.

AamukatsausNordea
Italian hallitukselle puhtia takinkäännöstä * EKP – ei uutta auringon alla * Italian hallituksen säilyminen vahvisti euroa

AamukatsausTapiola (pdf)
Eurooppalaisissa osakesektoreissa pääomat virtasivat syyskuussa Euroopan kotimarkkinasektoreihin sekä syklisiin osakkeisiin. Sijoittajien luottamus vaikuttaa palautuvan nyt Euroopan talouskasvuun. Markkinan suunta: Osakemarkkinat eilen loivassa laskussa, kun EKP ei ilmoittanut uusista toimenpiteistä eikä USA:n velkakattokiistassa nähty edistystä. Italian hallituskriisiin positiivinen ratkaisu eilen. Tänään palvelualojen ostopäällikköindeksit USA:sta ja euroalueelta. Osakefutuurit lähellä eilisiä tasoja, indikoiden tasaista avausta OMX HEX:iin.

MarkkinakalenteriNordnet
MarkkinakalenteriTaloussanomat


EUROPE
August 2013 retail trade up by 0.7% in euro area Up by 0.4% in EU28Europa

UNITED STATES
On CommunicationTim Duy’s Fed Watch
There is much room room for improvement with the Fed's communication strategy.  They might want to get on this given their increasing reliance on forward guidance.

Buying the ShutdownGuggenheim
How have assets performed in previous gov shutdowns? And how do they do in the following two weeks?

OTHER
FX Update: USD weak but with two-way headline riskTradingFloor
EURUSD saw its highest close since February on a passive ECB and Italy’s Letta winning a confidence vote to keep his government in business. But this market lacks conviction and seems very prone to “headline risk”.

FINNISH
Teollisuus häviää Suomesta – matalapalkka-aloilla kilpaillaan töistäPaavo Häikiö