Here are the links to
the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last
week's 'Support' here.
Previously on
MoreLiver’s:
LAST WEEK
Friday Close
Market Prices – Global
Macro Monitor
Treasury Yields Tumble To 2-Month Lows; Dow/S&P Still Red In 2014 – ZH
Weekly Scoreboard – Between
The Hedges
The Economist’s Weeklies:
The Weekender – beyondbrics
/ FT
Succinct summation of week’s events – The
Big Picture
NEXT WEEK
EVENTS
Schedule for Week – Calculated
Risk
Economic Calendar – Berenberg
China GDP: solid but slightly lower growth in Q4 * UK: BoE minutes with guidance debate, another
drop in unemployment * France PMI: brighter mood after Hollande’s reforms?
Economic Calendar – Handelsbanken
UK Next Week's Agenda and Wrap Up – Handelsbanken
Wall Street Week Ahead – Reuters
Stocks may be
vulnerable in earnings blitz
5 Things to Watch on
Economic Calendar – WSJ
China growth, home sales and factory activity will be in focus during a week
with little data on tap.
What Matters in the Week Ahead for Global
Markets – WSJ
The most important
macroeconomic data and policy news events in the forthcoming week:
Europe’s Week Ahead: Fed Tapering Decision Key – WSJ
Weighing the Week
Ahead: More
“Experts” Predicting a Market Top – A Dash of Insight
The continuing
attention to earnings reports will split attention this week with the
ongoing debate over valuation and a potential bubble in stocks. Any
earnings stumble will be portrayed as evidence.
Kalenteri Viikko 4 – Nordea
Key events in the week
ahead by Goldman Sachs – ZH
STRATEGY
Weekly Focus: Recovery but also pressure for
lower rates in Europe – Danske
Bank
Eurozone PMI may
struggle to climb higher but already indicates decent growth. We expect consumer
confidence to continue to rise. A lot of important data is due out in China – not least GDP growth for Q4 and the first PMI
numbers for January. In contrast, US data is thin on the ground, with Markit PMI
and home sales being the most interesting. Japan’s central bank is set to meet but there is
little prospect of any change to monetary policy. In Sweden, employment and jobless numbers are due.
Week Ahead – Nordea
Euro area: Preliminary PMIs (Friday) are on top of the agenda in Europe. We expect a slight increase to 52.5 from
52.1, adding to the signs of recovery, driven both by manufacturing and
services. Besides that, we expect an increase in the German ZEW. Sweden: Unemployment has levelled out around 8% in
recent months. For December, we expect unemployment to edge down to 7.9% but
largely to remain on the sideways trend. UK: Minutes of the January MPC meeting at the Bank
of England will be the highlight of the week. Since November, the MPC seems to
have taken a more neutral bias, but speculations about a more hawkish turn may
gradually build up the coming months. US:
Only tier-2 data on the agenda in the US next week. We don’t see any significant market
movements caused by this data.
Strategy: Market questions ECB's ability to
deliver 2% inflation – Danske
Bank
Bond markets price
very low euro inflation for a long time - too long.
Scandi markets ahead – Danske
Bank
Divergent rates and
inflation outlook for Norway and Sweden add support to NOK/SEK
Viikkokatsaus: Kiina avaa BKT-lukujen kauden – Nordea
Viime viikon
antia: Vähittäiskauppa oli odotettua vahvempaa Yhdysvalloissa. Euroalueen
teollisuustuotanto korjasi aikaisemman pudotuksensa. Tulevaa: Alustavia
PMI-lukuja. Kiinan BKT Q4:ltä avaa pelin
CREDIT
Weekly Credit Update – Danske
Bank
Supportive start to
the year for credit. 2014 credit strategy: 'A recovery to carry us'. Nordea
gets approval for IRB model in the Nordic region by the four Nordic FSAs
Yield
Forecast Update – Danske Bank
Over the past month, incoming data has continued to support our view of
a strengthening of the European recovery. Despite a dovish ECB and a cut by the
Riksbank, long-end rates have moved slightly higher in both Europe and Sweden. In the US, the decision by the
Fed to taper the QE programme had only limited impact on long-end rates.
However, as there seems to be limited willingness to strengthen the forward
guidance, US money market rates have moved higher.
Rates: What is Unwarranted – Nordea
Short EUR rates are on
the rise once again, only unlike the December movements, there’s nothing
obvious in the calendar to reverse it. Things are looking squeeze-like. A
reversal is likely though, one way or the other. In this note we look into how
this could/should happen.
FI Eye-Opener: Focus
on short EUR rates and the ECB – Nordea
FOREX
FX Outlook: Dollar powers ahead – Marc toMarket
The US dollar finished last week well bid. It is at six week
highs against the euro. It recovered from the brief dip at the start of
the week below JPY103 and finished the week above JPY104.00. The
Australian dollar fell to new multi-year lows, as did the Canadian
dollar. Most emerging market currencies also fell.The notable exception to this general pattern was sterling.
FX
Forecast Update – Danske Bank
Low inflation set to weigh on EUR
EMERGING
EMEA Weekly: Turks
to hike, Hungarians to cut – Danske Bank
Emerging Markets
Briefer: January 2014 – Danske Bank
Two very different
headaches – deflation and external imbalance
EM Preview: The Week
Ahead – Marc to Market
EM Week Ahead –
beyondbrics / FT
COMMODITIES
Commodities 2014 – Danske Bank
Five themes to drive the markets this year: geopolitical risks abating, oil glut could be in the offing, recovery in investment good news for base metals, mounting grain supplies, backwardation returns
Five themes to drive the markets this year: geopolitical risks abating, oil glut could be in the offing, recovery in investment good news for base metals, mounting grain supplies, backwardation returns
CALENDARS
Economic Calendar – investing.com
Economic Calendar – BB
EU calendar – europa.eu
Markkinakalenteri – Nordnet
Markkinakalenteri – Taloussanomat