EUROPE
LIIKANEN
REPORT
EU revealed a
long-awaited proposal to reduce the systemic risk posed by big banks like the
Volcker Rule in the United States, but it may be a long time before the European
Parliament considers it.
The long lost Liikanen report returns – but it
looks pretty different – Open
Europe
MACRO
NUMBERS
Euro zone morale
climbs as recovery strengthens – Reuters
European sentiment:
it's getting better – TradingFloor
German Joblessness
Fell More Than Forecast in January – BB
UNITED STATES
HY bond market weathering the storm – Sober
Look
Experienced analysis
and investors in this space openly admit that it's just a "matter of
time" before this market "cracks". It simply needs a catalyst,
such as a large unexpected corporate default. Maybe a major event in the
sovereign bond market could dislodge HY.
FEDERAL
RESERVE
How Were Fed Forecasts? Too High, Too Low and
Just Right – WSJ
In December 2012,
Federal Reserve officials predicted where GDP, unemployment and inflation would
be in 2013. Here’s a report card on how the Fed did in its predictions.
GROSS
DOMESTIC PRODUCTION
Good GDP, Soft
Deflator – Marc to
Market
Q4 GDP Declines To
3.2% As Expected; Final 2013 GDP 1.9%, Down From 2.8% In 2012 – ZH
GDP Q4 Advance
Estimate: A Solid 3.2% - dshort
Real GDP Per Capita:
Another Perspective on the Economy – dshort
5 Takeaways From the
GDP Report – WSJ
Economists React:
Fourth Quarter GDP ‘Pretty Impressive’ – WSJ
US GDP: Households decisive as federal spending plummets – TradingFloor
Q4 GDP 3.2%, Weekly
Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 348,000 – Calculated
Risk
Q4 GDP: Solid Report,
Positives Looking Forward – Calculated
Risk
Visualizing GDP: The
Consumer Helped Balance Inventories – dshort
EMERGING MARKETS
Asia enters an age of increasing uncertainty – The
A-list / FT
EM turmoil: It ain’t over till the Chinese lady
sings – Danske
Bank
Calm Broken in Markets Amid Concerns of
Emerging Contagion – BB
Emerging Markets - Emerging Crisis or Media
Hysteria? – dshort
Record Cash Leaves Emerging Market ETFs on Lira
Drop – BB
More than $7 billion
flowed from ETFs investing in developing-nation assets in January, the most
since the securities were created,
Goldman Sachs: Here’s a History Lesson of
Emerging-Market Pullbacks – WSJ
EMEA Weekly – Danske
Bank
The tightening of
monetary conditions to prop up the EM currencies will potentially have very significant
negative effects on EM growth in general.
Following Failed Turkish Central Bank
Intervention, Verbal Diarrhea Follows – ZH
Turkey is not
considering any sort of capital controls as it battles to defend the lira, a
senior government official said on Thursday, after Prime Minister Tayyip
Erdogan said an "out of the ordinary" economic package could be
announced soon.
Another look at EM flows – alphaville
/ FT
Rajan Warns of Policy Breakdown as Emerging
Markets Fall – BB
India’s central bank Governor Raghuram Rajan (former IMF chief economist)
warned of a breakdown in global policy coordination after the Federal Reserve
further cut stimulus, weakening emerging-market currencies from the rupee to
the Turkish lira.
Steen Jakobsen: Russia a
catalyst for EM and global troubles – TradingFloor
EM crisis unlikely to
go away * Devaluation worries gather momentum * Hike in interest rates a
disease
MACRO
NUMBERS
China Manufacturing
Back in Contraction – Mish’s
PMI dips to six-month
low in January as new orders weaken – Reuters
OTHER
Commodities Update – Danske
Bank
Commodity markets
ignore further Fed tapering
YTD Change in Sovereign Default Risk – Bespoke
FINNISH
Talouspolitiikan
arviointineuvosto perustettu – Akateeminen talousblogi
Talousviisaat:
Sopeutustarve 0 – 1,5 miljardia euroa ensi vuonna – Verkkouutiset
Valtiovarainministeri Jutta Urpilaisen (sd.)
johdolla torstaina järjestettyyn talousfoorumiin osallistuneiden
talousviisaiden mukaan valtiontalouden lisäsopeutuksen tarve ensi vuonna on 0 –
1,5 miljardia euroa.
Kommentti:
Jutta U. piti seminaarin – hellurei , velat seuraavan hallituksen niskaan! – MTV
Urpilainen (sd.) piti seminaarin, joka oli
kuin tilaustyö: säästöjen ja velkaantumisen lopettamisen kanssa ei pidä
hoppuilla, joutaapa seuraavakin hallitus ne hoidella.
Tilanne
ja näkymät 1/2014 – Teknologiateollisuus
Teknologiateollisuuden liikevaihto jäi
Suomessa viime vuonna pienemmäksi kuin vuonna 2012. Tarjouspyyntöjen kasvu
antaa heikkoja signaaleja paremmasta. Teknologiateollisuuden yrityksissä ollaan
varovaisen toiveikkaita siitä, että pohjakosketus olisi takana.
Turha
Turkin koronnosto – Henri
Myllyniemi / US
Olli
Rehn eurokriisin hoidosta: "Itsekritiikkiin on syytä" – TalSa
Talouskomissaari Olli Rehn myöntää, että
eurokriisin sammuttamisessa on tehty virheitä. Hän ei kuitenkaan sulata
akatemiaprofessori Kaarlo Tuorin kritiikkiä demokratiavajeesta ja sosiaalisten
oikeuksien polkemisesta.
Kipua
ja hävitystä – Morningstar
Kehittyvien maiden kurssipudotus on tuntuva,
muttei vielä lähelläkään finanssikriisin kaltaista rysähdystä.