Just saw the Wolf of Wall Street - it's "Fear and Loathing", not Wall Street. Why not see this one instead?
Andrew Lo
MIT 15.401 Finance Theory I, Fall 2008
View the complete course: http://ocw.mit.edu/15-401F08
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EUROPE
Worrying predictions
for Eurozone living standards – The
World / FT
Here is a startling
prediction from the European Commission. In the absence of comprehensive
economic reforms, living standards in the eurozone, relative to the US, will be
lower in 2023 than they were in the mid-1960s.
Focus: The recovery
has to change gear – BNP
Confidence and conditions in the debt markets have improved recently * Yet,
the pace of the recovery risks to remain weak and needs to be strengthened * As
the need for consolidation of public finances constrained fiscal policy, the
support has to come from the monetary policy
European Parliament
elections are no longer second-order national contests – they are essential for
determining the future direction of the EU – Europp
/ LSE
BANKING UNION
First steps for
banking union implementation – voxeu.org
The European Banking
Union matures in 2014, with the ECB assuming its role as single supervisor. This
column outlines the transition to the new steady state. This will involve a
comprehensive balance sheet assessment, new rules regarding recapitalisation,
restructuring, and resolution, and the determination of how recapitalisation
costs are distributed across taxpayers in different European nations.
ECB Sees Bad-Debt
Rules as Threat to Credible Bank Review – BB
ECB is concerned that national differences in how bad debt is classified
could cripple its probe into the health of euro-area banks, according to an
internal ECB document.
Europeans Struggle to
Set Derivatives Rules – DealBook
/ NYT
Faced with intense lobbying from the oil and commodity industries, the
European Union plans what could be a last-ditch effort on Tuesday to reach
agreement on one of the biggest issues to come out of the 2008 financial
crisis: how to rein in trading of derivatives and other complex instruments.
CRISIS COUNTRIES
MACRO NUMBERS
U.K. Inflation Plays Ball
At Long Last – WSJ
U.K. Inflation Slows to
BOE Target for 1st Time Since ’09 – BB
The Disinflationary Legacy of Weak Global Consumer Demand – WSJ
Greek Deflation Continues For 10th Straight Month – ZH
EZ output rebounds in Nov, adds to signs of economic recovery – Reuters
UNITED STATES
The Next Two Weeks In
Earnings – Bespoke
Goldman Downgrades US
Equities To "Underweight", Sees Risk Of 10% Drawdown – ZH
FEDERAL RESERVE
Fed’s Lockhart: Taper
Will Continue if Recovery Continues – WSJ
Lockhart Greenlights
Tapering – Tim
Duy’s Fed Watch
But that's not really the big story at this point. The big story is the communications
strategy. The era of transparency has
arguably delivered only more complicated and confusing targets, thresholds, and
statements. With the Evans rule turning
into a pumpkin soon, they will need to decide if they want to double-down on
this strategy or move onto something else.
But what is that something else?
Whatever it is, it must be near the top of incoming Chair Janet Yellen's
to-do list.
The week in the
United States Tapering, a few explanations… – BNP
Fed’s Plosser: Weak December Jobs Data Shouldn’t Affect Taper – WSJ
Fed’s Fisher: Glad Fed Tapered, but First Cut Should Have Been Bigger – WSJ
Fed's Fisher Says "Investors Have Beer Goggles From Liquidity"
– ZH
BUDGET
A growing economy and
declining public sector spending have seen the federal deficit shrink to its
lowest level in five years, and further improvement is expected in the next
couple of years. In the longer-term, however, problems
still loom.
Bye Bye, Budget
Deficit – Evan Soltas
We've cut the budget
deficit by half since last year. It is shrinking nearly as fast as it grew as
crisis broke out in 2008. Just think about that.
MACRO NUMBERS
Small Business Sentiment: ’No Sign of Real Recovery" – dshort
NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index increases in December – Calculated
Risk
NFIB Small Business Optimism Rises – Bespoke
Retail Sales increased 0.2% in December – Calculated Risk
Dec Retail Sales Beat Due To Nov Revision Lower, Electronics Sales
Tumble – ZH
Retail sales increased despite the weather – Danske
Bank
Retailers See Sales and Inventories Rise in Fourth Quarter – WSJ
Where Did Consumer Spend Their Money in December? – WSJ
Retail Sales Up A Mild 0.2% In December – The
Capital Spectator
Escape Velocity? Not Yet – WSJ
Consumer spending measure rises solidly – Reuters
ASIA
Chinese Stocks to
Trail World for Fifth Year: Chart of the Day – BB
MACRO NUMBERS
India inflation: vegtables
off the boil – FT
Japan Current-Account Gap Widens to Record on Weaker Yen – BB
Japan No Longer an Export Powerhouse – WSJ
Weakness in the yen
and extra demand for energy because of nuclear-plant shutdowns are driving up Japan’s import bill, highlighting drags on the
recovery that will also include a sales-tax increase in April. A longer-term
risk for the nation is any shift to a sustained deficit that would undermine
investor confidence in Japanese government debt.
OTHER
Investment: Dollar
disruptions – FT
Now that the US is haltingly climbing out of its economic morass and the
Fed is beginning to unwind its monetary stimulus programme, strategists and
investors are predicting another golden age for the US dollar… Previous periods of dollar strength have been
accompanied by crises in emerging markets.
Real Exchange Rate
Appreciation in Emerging Markets: Can Fiscal Policy Help? – IMF
A permanent fiscal adjustment may reduce appreciation pressures over the
long term. Furthermore, the composition of public spending matters, with
reductions in current spending playing a key role.
EM Debt Risk: The
Devil Is in the Detail – PragCap
Investors in US
dollar-denominated bonds issued by emerging-market (EM) corporates are worried
that the greenback’s rise, together with a broad decline in EM currencies,
could increase the risk of defaults on their holdings. How
worried should they be?
Advanced Malaise – Joseph
E. Stiglitz / Project Syndicate
Cold water on rosy projections of faster recovery in Europe and the US.
A Requiem for Global
Imbalances – Barry
Eichengreen / Project Syndicate
The start of 2014 marks ten years since we began fretting about global
imbalances, and specifically about the chronic trade and current-account
imbalances of the United States and China. A decade later, we can happily
declare that the era of global imbalances is over.
FINNISH
Yksi maa Euroopassa on sekä energiaparatiisi
että energiahelvetti - mikä maa? – TE
Eläkematematiikka on vaikeaa – Akateeminen talousblogi
Kohta joka kolmas työssäkäyvä hoivaa
läheistään – Verkkouutiset
Katainen ideapajan jälkeen: Meillä on liian
kielteinen ilmapiiri
– YLE
Suomen
kielteinen ilmapiiri nousi esiin hallituksen ideapajassa. Hallitus etsi
aivoriihessään koko päivän keinoja Suomen menestymiseen.
Mitä kuuluu Suomen kukkarolle? – YLE
Millainen
oli talouden vuosi 2013? Entä näkymät alkaneelle vuodelle? Keskustelemassa
ekonomisti Janne Huovari Pellervon taloudellisesta tutkimuslaitoksesta,
tutkimusjohtaja Markku Kotilainen Elinkeinoelämän tutkimuslaitoksesta ja
erikoistutkija Pekka Sauramo Palkansaajien taloudellisesta tutkimuslaitoksesta.
EU ja muutosten vuosi – Brysselin
kone / YLE
Alkavana
vuonna valta vaihtuu paitsi parlamentissa, niin myös komissiossa. Mutta
paljonko EU:n politiikka muuttuu äänestystulosten perusteella? Mikä vaikutus
äänestäjiin tulee olemaan talouskriisillä ja sen esiin nostama keskustelulla EU:n
harjoittamasta talouskurista, maiden keskinäisen solidaarisuuden tarpeesta ja
euron ongelmista?
Huoli heräsi: Militantti anti-fasistinen
liike kasvamassa Suomessa – TE
Sisäministeriön
valtiosihteeri Andrei Nahkala on huolissaan ekstremismin mahdollisesta
lisääntymisestä tulevaisuudessa.
Vaarallisia kuvia isänmaasta – Tikkakoski on
Googlen kartoissa pimeä vyöhyke – HS
Ilmakuvaamista
sensuroitiin vielä 1980-luvun Suomessa tarmokkaasti. Sille voi nyt nauraa.
Mutta miksi Tikkakosken sotilasalueiden päällä on Googlen kartoissa tummennus?
MOT: Edunvalvonnan armoilla – YLE
Siirtolaiset huijaavat tukia? –
EU-komissiolta opaskirja torjuntaan – Verkkouutiset
Jäsenmaa voi karkottaa EU-kansalaisen, jos
tämä aiheuttaa "perusteettoman taakan".
IL: näin ulkomaalainen saa Suomessa
laittomasti tukia – Verkkouutiset
Helsingin
sosiaaliviraston johtajan mukaan ulkomaalaisten toimeentulotuesta "saattaa
jäädä talonpoikaisjärjellä miettimään, että onko tässä kaikki kohdallaan".
Rakennusyritysten
liikevaihto kasvoi elo-lokak. vajaan prosentin YoY – Tilastokeskus
Palvelualojen
liikevaihto kasvoi elo-lokak.0,4% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Inflaatio
kiihtyi joulukuussa 1,6 prosenttiin – Tilastokeskus