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Monday, June 30

30th Jun - EZ monetary data & inflation bad

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The Juncker row: Were there any concessions to the UK and what happens next?Open Europe

A big defeat but Juncker's appointment is not the end of the road for EU reformOpen Europe

Lethargic Europe needs investment joltFT
Giving the banks more money for lending is surely not the answer to a demand problem

Germany: Solid growth, low inflation (despite ECB)DB Research
After a good start into 2014, manufacturing output in Germany looks set to grow by 4% in real terms in the full year. Even though business expectations have recently weakened somewhat, they remain in positive territory. Despite the good labour market situation in Germany inflation has decelerated noticeably. The outlook of a recovering global economy, a sliding euro and the introduction of a nation-wide minimum wage in Germany lead us to forecast that inflation is bottoming out. After hitting 1.1% in the current year it could pick up to 1.6% in 2015.

What On Earth Is Going On In Bulgaria?Forbes
Frances Coppola: Less than a month ago, the IMF gave Bulgaria’s banking system a clean bill of health, saying it was “stable and liquid, with banks’ non-performing loans buffered by provisions and significant capital, as well as a positive net foreign asset position”. But yesterday, the President of Bulgaria was forced to issue a statement reassuring people that their money was safe after a week of bank runs. And the EU has now granted Bulgaria an emergency line of credit to support its banking system.

Livestream on the EU's Future: Where Is Europe Heading?Spiegel
Jean-Claude Juncker is set to finally become president of the European Commission, but what direction is the Continent heading in? Debate between European Council President Herman Van Rompuy, star investor George Soros and former French Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici.

ECB clarification on LTRO to headline central bank meetings in JulyTradingFloor

For eurozone recovery QE is not the answerThe Telegraph
The eurozone, for all the improved mood music, remains on the brink of recession

Decoding Draghi: Banks Still Puzzle Over ECB Grand PlanBB

Euro Calls Rally to Highest Since 2009 as Draghi DefiedBB

Monetary developments in the euro area – ECB
Money supply accelerates in May – TradingFloor
Early signs of improvement in money supply and credit – Danske Bank
European Household Loans Plunge By Most On Record – ZH
Euro zone loans slump, ECB waits for new measures to kick in – Reuters

Euro area annual inflation stable at 0.5% - Eurostat
Inflation unchanged in June, core prices surprise to the upside – TradingFloor
Inflation remained low at 0.5% - we expect it to stay low until Q4 – Danske Bank
Euro-Area Inflation Steady at 0.5% Shows Draghi Challenge – BB
ECB to wait for June measures to bite as inflation stays low – Reuters
Euro area inflation – Steady as she goes – Nordea
In Europe, Meager Inflation Feeds Japan Talk – WSJ

Fed’s Williams Upbeat on Growth, But Sees No Rush on RatesWSJ
S.F. Fed: U.S. Inflation Will Likely Remain Low Through 2015WSJ

Q2 Rebound Fail: Chicago PMI Drops, Misses By Most Since March – ZH
Dallas Fed: Manufacturing Activtiy Increases in June – Calculated Risk
U.S. Midwest business index dips in June – Reuters

Pending Home Sales Jump In May; Drop YoY For 8th Month In A Row – ZH
Pending Home Sales +6.1% in May, -5.2% y-o-y – Calculated Risk
U.S. pending home sales hit eight-month high in May – Reuters

What Central Bankers Will Watch in the Tankan Business SurveyWSJ

Abe’s BullseyeProject Syndicate
Over the last 18 months, the first and second "arrows" of Abenomics – expansionary monetary and fiscal policies – have achieved considerable success in spurring Japan’s economic renewal. Now it is time for Abe to launch his third and final arrow: an ambitious reform package focused on reducing barriers to growth for businesses.

Daily MacroWSJ
It will take a while to untangle the effects of April’s tax rise on the Japanese economy. It caused consumption to surge before the tax went into effect and then collapse after. Inflation rocketed but wage growth hasn’t kept pace, suggesting a squeeze on discretionary spending. Industry has been rocked as well. All of these effects should settle over the coming months, at which point it should be clearer whether Abenomics’ other measures are managing to generate sustainable underlying growth and positive inflation. Meanwhile, the market’s focus will be on U.S. nonfarm payrolls, unusually, due to be released on Thursday.

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: A Warning From Basel On China’s Debt-Driven Growth * Fed’s Bullard: Markets Right to Play Down Gloomy GDP Report * Euro-Zone Inflation Rate Stays at Lowest Level in Over Four Years * Global Markets’ Strength Doesn’t Reflect Economic Outlook, Central Banks Say * Security Detail for Fed Chairwoman Irks Neighbors

FX: let's get real!Nordea
With ECB having nailed rates to the bottom... please, BE surprised if low EMU inflation leads to weaker EUR from now on.

BIS Annual ReportBIS

‘Euphoric’ capital markets are out of step with reality, warns BISFT
BIS warns that “euphoric” financial markets have become detached from the reality of a lingering post-crisis malaise, as it called for governments to ditch policies that risk stoking unsustainable asset booms.

Central Bankers, Worried About Bubbles, Rebuke MarketsNYT
BIS warned dangerous new asset bubbles were forming even before the global economy has finished recovering from the last round of financial excess.

Here are the countries showing early warning signs for banking crisesQuartz
According to the BIS report, Asia is the region that seems to be at most risk, with China in particular creating cause for concern. Switzerland, Turkey, and Brazil are also sending serious warning signals.

"EU ilman Iso-Britanniaa ei ole hyväksyttävissä"Verkkouutiset
Saksan valtiovarainministeri Wolfgang Schäuble tyrmää Financial Timesin haastattelussa mahdottomana ajatuksen Ison-Britannian EU-erosta.

Junckerin nimitys – ‘lisää Eurooppaa’ ja brittien EU-ero?Juhani Huopainen / US

EU:n rahastoista pankkien rahoitus - budjetin varainkäyttöön kuuluvaa?Sirpa Abdallah / US

Olipa kerran impivaaraJanne Suuronen / US

Stubbin ja Rinteen hallituksen leikkauksetHeikki Patomäki / US
Vasemmiston populismi pistää sylettämäänEetu Kinnunen / US

Tavaroiden ulkomaankaupan kuukausitilasto huhtikuussa 2014 – Tulli
Osakeasuntojen hinnat laskivat toukokuussa – Tilastokeskus
Valtionhallinnon nettorahoitusvarat hupenivat edelleen Q1 2014 – Tilastokeskus
Kotitalouksien nettorahoitusvarat supistuivat Q1 2014 – Tilastokeskus
Julkisyhteisöjen velka kasvoi 3,4 miljardia euroa Q1 2014 – Tilastokeskus
Suurten yritysten liikevaihto supistui toukok. 2,1% YoY – Tilastokeskus