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EUROPE
Wolfgang
Münchau: The simple core of the Grexit and Brexit conundrums – FT
The
European problems of Greece and Britain involve no innate difficulty
EURUSD
& Peripheral Bonds Tumble As Greek Fears Re-Emerge – ZH
ITALY:
Concluding Statement of the 2015 Article IV Mission – IMF
UNITED KINGDOM
Cutting
red tape must be at the heart of any EU reform agenda – Open
Europe
Since David
Cameron's re-election, the first senior business figure has come out providing
qualified support for Brexit absent a significant cut-back on EU regulation.
According to our policy analyst Vincenzo Scarpetta, this highlights how vital
it is to put cutting red tape at the heart of any EU reform agenda.
Daniel
Hannan: Nine ways for Eurosceptics to win the referendum – Capx
GREECE
Would
leaving euro be more of a catastrophe for Greece than staying? – The
Guardian
Leaving the
single currency will have all sorts of economic and political costs for Athens,
but Iceland’s experience after the banking crisis could prove illuminating
Tsipras
letter reveals precariousness of Greece’s finances – FT
Greece came
so close to defaulting on last week’s €750m IMF repayment that the prime
minister warned IMF chief Christine Lagarde he could not pay it without EU aid.
Shape Of
Greek Endgame Emerges
– ZH
IMF
Discussed "Cyprus-Like" Plan After Tsipras Warned Of Looming Default
Stephen
Pope: Will Greece embroider an end to its euro encumbrance? – TF
The Greek
Prime Minister is standing firm by his election red lines * But this is not in
line with creditor expectations * If Greece does not wish to adhere to the program
then it should be ejected
Greece Will Default On June 5 Without
Deal, IMF Leaks – ZH
Greece
Remains Defiant as It Seeks Creditor Deal This Week – BB
Greek
Endgame Nears for Tsipras as Collateral Evaporates – BB
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
The
ECB’s bond purchase programmes and the limits of national risk-sharing – vox
QE in the
Eurozone is unusual in that the risks of sovereign debt defaults are shared
between the ECB and the national central banks. If such risk sharing were
applied to the OMT programme, it could potentially create insolvency problems
for countries with large public debts, especially in a low-growth scenario.
Now Is
The Time For The ECB To Stress Its Commitment To QE – Alpha
Now
For the
first time since 2011 Q1, the euro area economy has expanded by more than that
of both the US and the UK. Since the start of 2011 the euro area has
underperformed the US and UK by some margin.
Raising
Definition of Price Stability ‘Misguided’, Says ECB’s Mersch – WSJ
ASIA
Does
China already have the highest level of margins vs free float in market
history? – FT
What
multiple should we give China’s GDP growth? – Michael
Pettis
Macro
Digest: Why China is more important than the Fed – TF
As the US
economy stutters towards reversal many minds are focused on the implications
for the rest of us. But consider this: more often than not major economic
shifts originate in Asia
and that's why we should should be taking more notice of what's going on in China right now.
Interest
Rate Liberalization — With Chinese Characteristics – WSJ
Asia
monthly update - a temporary relief – Nordea
We are
generally cautious on EM FX for at least the coming six months. EM FX faces
downside risks until the first rate hike has occurred in the US, which we
expect to take place in September 2015 (market consensus December). We expect
the risk on the EM currencies to tilt on the downside when we move towards
year-end. The accommodative monetary policy by the ECB and the BoJ will have
some positive but are not enough to counteract the negative effect from the Fed
and the strong USD.
REGULARS
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Hilsenrath’s
Take: Don’t Put Too Much Weight on Atlanta Fed Growth Estimate Yet * Growth
Hiccups Vex Fed Yet Again * Fed’s Evans: Overshooting Fed’s 2% Price Target May
Be A Good Idea * Bank of Japan Relaxing All-Out Approach to Hitting Inflation
Target * China Reverses Course on Local Debt
Daily
Macro – WSJ
U.S.
economic second-quarter data have disappointed somewhat and the numbers out of
China are starting to look worrisome; modestly better results in Europe aren’t
enough to offset those. The eurozone, Japan and China’s central banks are all
doing as much as they can to boost market liquidity, which means much now
hinges on whether the Federal Reserve is sufficiently concerned about a lackluster
economic rebound.
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
Euro
rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
FOMC
minutes and Euro-area PMIs in focus later in the week * Bond market finally
ripe for a rebound? * EUR/SEK with a break higher
Morning
Markets – TF
With little
on the economic indicator calendar in the early part of the European session,
markets will look to this afternoon's US Housing Market Index which is expected
to show a slight uptick in consumer sentiment. Elsewhere, Treasuries are back
in vogue while the euro may fall out of fashion.
Daily FX
Comment – Marc
Chandler
Dollar
Firmer, but Vulnerable
Daily
Shot – TF
The Chinese
housing market remains soft but may be firming as a 6% year-over-year drop in
prices has seen buyers begin to return. In Europe, meanwhile, Greece is running
out of time as various payment deadlines draw near.
Daily
Press Summary – Open
Europe
JCB boss
says Brexit would not make much difference * Burnham calls for EU referendum to
be brought forward and for Cameron to secure “tough but fair” deal on EU
migrants’ access to benefits * Farage: I have an important role to play in the
pro-Brexit campaign * Tsipras sent a letter to the IMF warning Greece may not
be able to make its payments * French PM rejects idea of binding EU migrant
quotas * Protests rock Macedonia’s capital
Brussels
Playbook – Politico
US Open – ZH
Gold Jumps
Despite Stronger Dollar As Grexit Gets Ever Nearer, Futures Flat
FX
Update – TF
We do have
a sprinkling of interesting US data points this week, and a set of FOMC minutes
up on Wednesday, but the key focus for the USD and EUR this week may be on
whether the recent case of bad nerves in European bond and equity markets is
easing.
From the
Floor – TF
If this
EURUSD rally gets any stronger, European Central Bank president Mario Draghi
might just start "losing his mind" as the best laid plans of mice and
men unravel.
Martin
Sandbu’s Free Lunch
– FT
Ukraine's
weaponised debt: Advocates of debt reduction for Ukraine are right
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Fed odottaa jäiden sulamista – Kiina pyristelee
kohmettumista vastaan | Dollari vahvistunut heikon USA:n talouskehityksen myötä
| Euroalueen ostopäällikköindeksit luvassa torstaina
Aki Kangasharju: Yrittäjyys ei saa jäädä
sosiaalipolitiikan jatkeeksi – Nordea
Hallitus haikailee satojentuhansien uusien työpaikkojen
perään. Keskeisin keino on yrittäjyyden ja yksityisten yritysten
kasvuedellytysten parantaminen, koska julkinen sektori on jo ylittänyt talouden
kantokyvyn. Ilman uusia panostuksia kansainvälistymiseen uusille tuotteille ei
kuitenkaan löydy kysyntää ja yrittäjyyden edistämisestä tulee vain uusi
sosiaalipolitiikan muoto.
Ekonomistit: Vientimarkkinan elpyminen ei vedä Suomea
mukanaan – YLE
Rupla ja kruunu tekevät hallaa - tavanomaisesta poiketen
Suomi ei ole päässyt kunnolla hyötymään kauppakumppaneiden kasvusta. Tämä kasaa
paineita tulevan hallituksen kilpailukykypolitiikkaa kohtaan.
Olli Herrala: Sipilän hallituksen älykkäimpiä vetoja
– KL
Sipilän nupullaan oleva hallitus päätti ensi töikseen
rakentaa EU- ja ETA-alueen ulkopuolelta tuleville opiskelijoille
lukukausimaksut. Linjaus on hyvä.
Tiivistä tietoa kannustinloukuista – Olli
Kärkkäinen
Henri Myllyniemi: Yrittäjyys luo kilpailua, herrajesta
– US