Here are
the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning
week. Last week's 'Support' here.
This post will be updated as new
material is published.
Previously
on MoreLiver’s:
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LAST WEEK
Weekly
Scoreboard – Between
The Hedges
Friday’s
Price Monitor – Global Macro Monitor
Muted May-Day
Volume Sparks Hey-Day For Stocks
Succinct
summation of week’s events – The
Big Picture
NEXT WEEK
US Schedule
for Week – Calculated Risk
Economic
Calendar – Berenberg
UK elections: decision time, hung
parliament? * US non-farm payrolls: reassuring
rebound after March weakness * Greek IMF payments: when is the money running
out?
Economic
Calendar – Handelsbanken
World Week
Ahead – WSJ
Global
Central Banks Calendar – WSJ
Week Ahead
– ZH
5 Things
to Watch on the Economic Calendar – WSJ
Wall St
Week Ahead – Reuters
U.S. jobs report looms for directionless
market
Global
Economy Week Ahead – Reuters
Weighing
the Week Ahead – A Dash of Insight
Can Employment News Change the Fed’s Course?
Global Week
Ahead – BB
EU Week Ahead: – WSJ
Weekly
Market Outlook – Moody’s
Weekly
Focus – Danske
Bank
Indicators
have pointed in different directions ahead of the US jobs report for April, so
there will be interest in how it turns out * Retail sales are expected to
reveal strong euro area spending growth in Q1 * Labour are weak favourites to
form a government after the UK election * Chinese trade data are expected by us
to show a rebound in export growth and allay fears of an export crisis
Macro
Weekly – Turbulent markets, indicating what? – ABN
AMRO
Financial
market have been relatively volatile in recent days. Core eurozone bond yields
have risen sharply and equities, European ones in particular, have lost ground.
Investors need to think what has caused this and what the implications are. I
fail to see a clear connection with recent or future developments in the real
economy. Yes, the US economy has made a very slow start
to the year, but is expected to gain momentum in the period ahead. The Fed did
not give clear hints about what it might do next. Eurozone data continues to
confirm that the economy is recovering and the sidelining of Greece’s finance minister appears to be
giving the negotiations between the country and its partners a boost.
Forecasts
at a glance – Berenberg
Global:
Cheap oil, supportive central banks, but some emerging markets
look shaky
* US: Solid fundamentals, strong dollar hurts a little; 2.5% growth in 2015 * China:
No hard
landing, growth slowing gradually to 6.7% in 2016 * Japan: Artificial stimulus has faded,
future hinges on reforms * Eurozone: Periphery firming, core rebounding but
Russian/Greek risks * UK: Solid growth in domestic demand – but
mind the political risks
Macro
Weekly – Turbulent markets, indicating what? – ABN
AMRO
Financial
markets have been relatively volatile in recent days. Core eurozone bond yields
have risen sharply and equities, European ones in particular, have lost ground.
Investors need to think what has caused this and what the implications are. I
fail to see a clear connection with recent or future developments in the real
economy. Yes, the US economy has made a very slow start
to the year, but is expected to gain momentum in the period ahead. The Fed did
not give clear hints about what it might do next. Eurozone data continues to
confirm that the economy is recovering and the sidelining of Greece’s finance minister appears to be
giving the negotiations between the country and its partners a boost.
Strategy:
Back to base – strong trends are correcting – Danske
Bank
Corrections
in stocks , bonds and the USD as investors move back to base * Strong rise in
bond yields but it is not a new trend * US Q1 growth weak but we expect recovery
in Q2 * USD: risk of more correction short term but EUR/USD to go lower when
the data improve * Euro consumer data point to some softening in the short term
Week
Ahead: Stronger US payrolls and a rate cut by Norges Bank – Nordea
We expect a
225k gain in US nonfarm payrolls in April and a drop in the unemployment rate. The
ECB might increase the pressure on Greece by raising the haircut on
collateral handed in by Greek banks to receive emergency liquidity assistance. Closer
to home, while the market prices less than 50% chance of a rate cut by Norges
Bank, we expect -25 bp.
The
Investment Climate: Where We Stand – Marc
Chandler
One of the
most important forces shaping the investment climate is that the US is closer to beginning to normalize
monetary policy than other major countries and regions. That gap may be measured in years, not months
or quarters, and has not reached the apogee.
STOCKS
Weekly
Market Summary – The Fat Pitch
The trading
range for SPY is tighter now than at any time since December before a 5% drop. SPY's trading range is likely to expand
and, on balance, it seems more likely that the expansion will be to the
downside rather than the upside. That has been the most common outcome in the
past and there are a number of supporting reasons to suggest that it will be
the case this time as well.
CREDIT
Euro
Rates Weekly – Start of the big short? – ABN
AMRO
10y Bund
yields have jumped, which raises the question whether the Bund bubble is
bursting * We think it’s too early as we see no convincing reasons why yields
should move higher * We therefore remain bullish on Bunds and we hold on to our
10bps forecast * We do expect a significant bounce in Q1 of next year * A key
trigger could be the 2016 March meeting as the ECB will add a year to its
forecast horizon
Euro
Corporate Weekly – Spreads tighten in volatile week – ABN
AMRO
Correction
in Bunds caused by an accumulation of minor reasons coinciding in a short time
frame * Credit Yields jump but credit spreads have tightened on light supply
from the primary market * This shows how vulnerable the credit market has
become to supply volume * Half way through the earnings season the beat:miss
ratio stands at 2:1 * Eurozone bank lending to Non-Financials continues to
improve
FOREX
FX Outlook
– Marc
Chandler
Dollar's Demise Exaggerated: Technicals Anticipate Turn in Fundamentals
G10 FX
Weekly – Dollar sell-off – ABN AMRO
Dollar
aggressively sold off because of weak cyclical forces and a change in investor
sentiment * The Swedish krona outperformed on less aggressive monetary policy
stimulus * Our new forecasts reflect the recent dollar weakness, which we
expect to be temporary
China stimulus speculation and weak US
dollar support EM FX…except the Chinese yuan, Thai baht and Russian ruble…while
budget concerns are back in Brazil
FX 4 Next
Week: Numbers don't lie – TF
Friday's US jobs report could cap euro squeeze
* Dovish RBNZ clips the kiwi's wings * Australian central bank expected to cut
rates * GBPUSD rally extending beyond fundamental support
COMMODITIES
Precious
Metals Weekly – Downside risk is increasing – ABN
AMRO
Gold prices
barely profit from dollar weakness, but fall back when the dollar recovers * Other
precious metal prices show a similar pattern…and this signals that price
weakness has fur
ther to run
* We remain negative on precious metal prices
CALENDARS
Economic
Calendar – investing.com
Economic
Calendar – BB
EU calendar – europa.eu
Markkinakalenteri
– Nordnet
Global
Central Banks Calendar – WSJ
Central
Bank Release Calendar – Daily FX